I've cut 'n' pasted this from the somewhat premature "part two" thread.
Some thoughts:
1. Banks is in alone. No Brash. And Brash is touting this as a good result! Could Hide have done worse? At least Banks won't have to worry about a leadership coup? this, after 15 years, is the end of an independent thinking ACT partyHide might've won Epsom, but even when he was leader he failed to stop the infighting and generally moronic behaviour so I think ACT would've done as poorly anyway. ACT will become a one-man-band ala Dunne and Anderton, Banks was a long-term Natioonal MP and he is once again in all but name. Glad there's no Brash, though.
2. Goff has security people looking around crowd for snipers while he speaks!Not literally, but that is more or less a good metaphor for the inevitable leadership contest. My money's on David Parker.
3. Just missing out for Greens was their first Deaf member of Parliament. Talk about ticking off all the basesAnd good on them. They have very ably widened their appeal where others have lost ground.
4. Asset sales to Iwi now?If there are any asset sales, they won't all go to iwi, but there'll be a percentage that might, in order to keep the Maori Party quiet.
5. Andrew Little a disaster. I gotta say watching him on TV over the past few years he is pretty uninspiring. I wasn't surprised.Bad result for him. He's been a very effective EPMU leader, but maybe isn't suited to party politcs, it'd appear. Maybe he'll be like Mark Blumsky and chuck it in after a term because he found out the hard way it wasn't for him.
6. Sharples & Turia will both be leaving at the end of this term. And probably Dunne. National really need to secure Greens for their long term survival. Hopefully the Greens leverage their position instead of saying Labour are the only right wingers they can work with.The Greens will weedle a Mem. of Understanding for sure, but I hope they really squeeze a hell of a lot more out of National than they did last term.
7. Christchurch Central is dead heat. If after specials a seat has a tie then it's a coin toss. Perhaps that's how they should decide all seats. Then we wouldn't have unlucky people in Parliament.It won't be tied after specials. National has done well in Christchurch simply because of the 'quake. They gained sympathy from Chch voters that way.
8. National got biggest vote of any party since 1951, Whither the comments about Key being a poor politican or National a bad manager / government now?Key is indeed a good politician in terms of securing votes and appeal. That doesn't necessarily make their polcies automatically good, though. Also, as Hooten said on RNZ this morning, National are now at the peak of their appeal. They have to spend some of their political capital and this will cost support. He also said that unless they make some solid achievements they can't just once again promise "a brighter future" in three years. I can't believe how many times I've agreed with Hooten this campaign.
Historically, the second term is when things start getting tough for a gov't and they just start to seem a little tired. The same will happen with this lot.
9. Peters is back. I believed in him while all others doubted. A shame he won't be in a position to stop asset sales, that's up to Maori Party, but at least we'll have an effective opposition now.Key has only himself to blame for his return, too. He balls-up the teapot fiasco badly and Peters milked it. Peters will indeed be out make life tough for the Nats, his ego demands it.
"U2 routinely spent a year in the studio...I have a theory: if you put four monkeys in the studio for a year with Lanois and Eno and Lillywhite, they would make a pretty good record, too."