Post something you've learnt today

in reality, all of this has been a total load of old bollocks
User avatar
Diamond Dog
"Self Quoter" Extraordinaire.
Posts: 68782
Joined: 16 Jul 2003, 21:04
Location: High On Poachers Hill

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Diamond Dog » 19 Mar 2020, 15:18

“The Man” wrote:
Diamond Dog wrote:Read the "Corona State Of Mind" thread.

viewtopic.php?f=47&t=146517&p=4065544#p4065544

It's not 'just flu' and it's not 'pneumonia'.

More importantly, it's not a fucking hoax either. So far 7950 deaths from 198,000 infected.


Why waste your breath on twats who are more upset about their gym being closed than they are about thousands dying and millions losing their livelihood, DD?

The way things are going, you may well need it for more important things later on - struggling to stay alive for example


Because he makes me fucking angry is why - you may have noticed?! :lol:

The thing is - I'm sure there's a good guy under all the bollocks with Jimbo. I truly do. But to witness his slide into this fantasy world has been, and continues to be, extremely fucking annoying. Which, truth be told, is why he does it, I guess. I'm not so good at the restraint thing - you may have noticed that too....

On an entirely different note - best of luck to Deebank and his nephew.
I still think almost everyone is wrong and I am right.
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
As silver tears they weave and lace, Sad patterns upon her face

User avatar
Deebank
Resonator
Posts: 23954
Joined: 10 Oct 2003, 13:47
Location: Insanity filled foxhole

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Deebank » 20 Mar 2020, 09:56

Diamond Dog wrote:
On an entirely different note - best of luck to Deebank and his nephew.


Thanks (and to Belle also), I'm off to the RD&E later and they will try to fit me in. They're not doing any scheduled stuff so it's all a bit ad hoc.
I shall be keeping my head down...
On Wednesday though both the specialist nurse and the doc tried to shake my hand :lol: I 'swerved' and bumped elbows. Apart from that, everyone was liberally dousing their exposed bits in hand cleanser. It did seem very much like they were all waiting for the shit to hit the fan.

My nephew is OK (according to my mum).
They reckon he contracted the virus doing a survey at the hospital in Oxford - he's at a really posh school, so proof that the virus knows no class boundaries :lol:

Anyway, ta.
I've been talking about writing a book - 25 years of TEFL - for a few years now. I've got it in me.

Paid anghofio fod dy galon yn y chwyldro

User avatar
Minnie the Minx
funky thigh collector
Posts: 31102
Joined: 29 Dec 2006, 16:00
Location: In the naughty North and in the sexy South

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Minnie the Minx » 20 Mar 2020, 13:40

Jimbo wrote:
Maybe inside they know it's horseshit too but they're all just going along to get along. I really don't know. .


One of my best friends, a nurse in the thick of it, has it. She knew it wasn't horseshit, and kept going in because patients still need to be looked after.
No, you really don't know. You really don't know anything.
You come at the Queen, you best not miss.

Dr Markus wrote:
Someone in your line of work usually as their own man cave aka the shed we're they can potter around fixing stuff or something don't they?

User avatar
Samoan
Posts: 11008
Joined: 28 May 2008, 10:22
Location: The Glad Tidings Mission Hall

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Samoan » 21 Mar 2020, 17:16

E mail today from one of my (three) Ward Councillors who is also a London Assembly Member to inform us that there are now 4 wards full of COVID-19 patients at St George’s (my local hospital 1.7 mile away) and 8 patients there have died of COVID-19.
Charlie O. wrote: Do you have to be high, or something?

User avatar
Diamond Dog
"Self Quoter" Extraordinaire.
Posts: 68782
Joined: 16 Jul 2003, 21:04
Location: High On Poachers Hill

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Diamond Dog » 23 Mar 2020, 11:50

The word welkin meaning "the vault of the sky" or "the celestial abode of God". Also that the carol ""Hark! The herald angels sing" was originally " " Hark, how all the welkin ring"...
I still think almost everyone is wrong and I am right.
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
As silver tears they weave and lace, Sad patterns upon her face

User avatar
Jimbo
Posts: 17291
Joined: 26 Dec 2009, 21:22

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Jimbo » 26 Mar 2020, 01:23

Have you heard this? This is from the British government. It's certainly not news in Tokyo. I need to hear it in my email via Jon Rappaport. This is PROOF it's a load of horseshit, nowhere nearly as bad as we are being led - like sheep - to our impoverishment and impotence.

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03 ... -covid-19/


Status of COVID-19

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.


The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.

The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response.

Cases of COVID-19 are no longer managed by HCID treatment centres only. All healthcare workers managing possible and confirmed cases should follow the updated national infection and prevention (IPC) guidance for COVID-19, which supersedes all previous IPC guidance for COVID-19. This guidance includes instructions about different personal protective equipment (PPE) ensembles that are appropriate for different clinical scenarios. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-conseq ... f-covid-19
You don't have to be smart to see how fucked up this shit is. Jimmy Dore

User avatar
Diamond Dog
"Self Quoter" Extraordinaire.
Posts: 68782
Joined: 16 Jul 2003, 21:04
Location: High On Poachers Hill

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Diamond Dog » 26 Mar 2020, 08:44

Yes, we know more about the virus (after all, we have many more actual cases to look at than back in January) - that's the main criteria for the change in status. So what?
I still think almost everyone is wrong and I am right.
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
As silver tears they weave and lace, Sad patterns upon her face

User avatar
Jimbo
Posts: 17291
Joined: 26 Dec 2009, 21:22

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Jimbo » 26 Mar 2020, 09:22

Diamond Dog wrote: So what?


Lower mortality rates. Woo hoo! This is great news and should be shouted out from the BBC, etc. And when do the rollbacks of the lock-downs commence? The virus's virulence ain't all that! Whew! Had us going for a while.
Last edited by Jimbo on 26 Mar 2020, 09:41, edited 1 time in total.
You don't have to be smart to see how fucked up this shit is. Jimmy Dore

User avatar
Jimbo
Posts: 17291
Joined: 26 Dec 2009, 21:22

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Jimbo » 26 Mar 2020, 09:40

.
You don't have to be smart to see how fucked up this shit is. Jimmy Dore

User avatar
Diamond Dog
"Self Quoter" Extraordinaire.
Posts: 68782
Joined: 16 Jul 2003, 21:04
Location: High On Poachers Hill

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Diamond Dog » 26 Mar 2020, 10:34

Jimbo wrote:
Diamond Dog wrote: So what?


Lower mortality rates. Woo hoo! This is great news and should be shouted out from the BBC, etc. And when do the rollbacks of the lock-downs commence? The virus's virulence ain't all that! Whew! Had us going for a while.


"Thank you President Trump.

How is NYC coping with that 5000 new cases per day? "
I still think almost everyone is wrong and I am right.
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
As silver tears they weave and lace, Sad patterns upon her face

User avatar
Diamond Dog
"Self Quoter" Extraordinaire.
Posts: 68782
Joined: 16 Jul 2003, 21:04
Location: High On Poachers Hill

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Diamond Dog » 26 Mar 2020, 10:37

Jimbo wrote:
Lower mortality rates. Woo hoo! This is great news and should be shouted out from the BBC, etc. And when do the rollbacks of the lock-downs commence? The virus's virulence ain't all that! Whew! Had us going for a while.


As I said on March 16th :

Diamond Dog wrote:The question of its virulence is difficult to forecast because the numbers infected are probably so many times that which we know - therefore the % of fatalities will be significantly reduced once those numbers become apparent. I'm not in anyway under-estimating the fatalities, Tym.
I still think almost everyone is wrong and I am right.
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
As silver tears they weave and lace, Sad patterns upon her face

User avatar
Rorschach
Posts: 2248
Joined: 02 Jun 2008, 12:43

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Rorschach » 26 Mar 2020, 12:01

Epidemiologists and statisticians have been suggesting that they believe the death rate to be about 1% right from the beginning. i.e., about ten times as bad as flu. i.e., it is extremely virulent. Current opinion seems to be that it's a bit higher than that but we won't know until it's over. No-one who knows what they're talking about has ever deviated from this view. No-one who knows what they are talking about has taken the number of known cases and divided by the number of deaths and suggested that that represented anything meaningful.

In other news, Jimbo is not just stupid, he's wilfully stupid.
Bugger off.

User avatar
Jimbo
Posts: 17291
Joined: 26 Dec 2009, 21:22

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Jimbo » 26 Mar 2020, 13:09

Rorschach wrote:Epidemiologists and statisticians have been suggesting that they believe the death rate to be about 1% right from the beginning. i.e., about ten times as bad as flu. i.e., it is extremely virulent. Current opinion seems to be that it's a bit higher than that but we won't know until it's over. No-one who knows what they're talking about has ever deviated from this view. No-one who knows what they are talking about has taken the number of known cases and divided by the number of deaths and suggested that that represented anything meaningful.

In other news, Jimbo is not just stupid, he's wilfully stupid.


No doubt you know of what you speak but how about a link? (Yeah right.) Because if you are falling for this horseshit you are a coward and a tool. If you are not skeptical of all this heart wrenching gobbledygook and statistical nonsense in the Guardian and the NYT and on CNN and BBC with horseshit blubbering from the lips of oohing and awing TV spokes-models, then you, CORONA CADET, are the kind of good sport this world needs for the NEXT GENERATION of obedient drones. "Make my money digital, Jack!" If you don't think this is all a tad too much, a teeny weeny overreaction when we KNOW there are false positives in the barely available tests and there even are some dissenting professionals, that there are any number of other factors which make people sick like pollution and drug side effects and sorry, grandpa, old age, then I beg you to get off your high horse and think for yourself. And send a link.

Edit. Pardon. I see a link to an Atlantic article. It gummed up my computer but I will give it another go.
You don't have to be smart to see how fucked up this shit is. Jimmy Dore

User avatar
Diamond Dog
"Self Quoter" Extraordinaire.
Posts: 68782
Joined: 16 Jul 2003, 21:04
Location: High On Poachers Hill

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Diamond Dog » 26 Mar 2020, 13:28

Jimbo wrote:I see a link to an Atlantic article. It gummed up my computer .


That's your Fact Filter kicking in.
I still think almost everyone is wrong and I am right.
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
As silver tears they weave and lace, Sad patterns upon her face

User avatar
Diamond Dog
"Self Quoter" Extraordinaire.
Posts: 68782
Joined: 16 Jul 2003, 21:04
Location: High On Poachers Hill

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Diamond Dog » 26 Mar 2020, 13:52

From The Atlantic too :

Updated at 6:30 p.m. E.T. on March 25, 2020.

In the 11 days since he declared the coronavirus pandemic a national emergency, President Donald Trump has repeatedly lied about this once-in-a-generation crisis.

Here, a collection of the biggest lies he’s told as the nation barrels toward a public-health and economic calamity. This post will be updated as needed.

On the Nature of the Virus

When: Friday, February 7, and Wednesday, February 19
The claim: The coronavirus would weaken “when we get into April, in the warmer weather—that has a very negative effect on that, and that type of a virus.”
The truth: It’s too early to tell if the virus’s spread will be dampened by warmer conditions. Respiratory viruses can be seasonal, but the World Health Organization says that the new coronavirus “can be transmitted in ALL AREAS, including areas with hot and humid weather.”

When: Thursday, February 27
The claim: The outbreak would be temporary: “It’s going to disappear. One day it’s like a miracle—it will disappear.”
The truth: Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned days later that he was concerned that “as the next week or two or three go by, we’re going to see a lot more community-related cases.”
More Stories



When: Monday, March 23
The claim: If the economic shutdown continues, deaths by suicide “definitely would be in far greater numbers than the numbers that we’re talking about” for COVID-19 deaths.
The truth: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that, in a worst-case scenario, 200,000 to 1.7 million Americans could die from COVID-19, The New York Times reports. Other estimates place the number of possible deaths at 1.1 million to 1.2 million. According to the CDC, suicide is one of the leading causes of death in the United States. But the number of people who died by suicide in 2017, for example, was roughly 47,000—nowhere near the COVID-19 estimates.


Blaming the Obama Administration

When: Wednesday, March 4
The claim: The Trump White House rolled back Food and Drug Administration regulations that limited the kind of laboratory tests states could run and how they could conduct them. “The Obama administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we’re doing,” Trump said.
The truth: The Obama administration drafted, but never implemented, changes to rules that regulate laboratory tests run by states. Trump’s policy change relaxed an FDA requirement that would have forced private labs to wait for FDA authorization to conduct their own, non-CDC-approved coronavirus tests.

When: Friday, March 13
The claim: The Obama White House’s response to the H1N1 pandemic was “a full scale disaster, with thousands dying, and nothing meaningful done to fix the testing problem, until now.”
The truth: Barack Obama declared a public-health emergency two weeks after the first U.S. cases of H1N1 were reported, in California. (Trump declared a national emergency more than seven weeks after the first domestic COVID-19 case was reported, in Washington State.) While testing is a problem now, it wasn’t back in 2009. The challenge then was vaccine development: Production was delayed and the vaccine wasn’t distributed until the outbreak was already waning.

On Coronavirus Testing

When: Friday, March 6
The claim: “Anybody that needs a test, gets a test. We—they’re there. They have the tests. And the tests are beautiful.”
The truth: The country’s testing capabilities are severely limited. Many states have experienced a lack of testing kits, as my colleagues Alexis Madrigal and Robinson Meyer have reported. Trump made this claim one day after his own vice president, Mike Pence, admitted that “we don’t have enough tests today to meet what we anticipate will be the demand going forward.”

When: Wednesday, March 11
The claim: In an Oval Office address, Trump said that private health-insurance companies had “agreed to waive all co-payments for coronavirus treatments, extend insurance coverage to these treatments, and to prevent surprise medical billing.”
The truth: Insurers agreed only to absorb the cost of coronavirus testing—waiving co-pays and deductibles for getting the test. Follow-up treatments aren’t covered. Neither are the costs of other non-coronavirus testing or treatment incurred by patients who have COVID-19 or are trying to get a diagnosis. And as for surprise medical billing? Mitigating it would require the cooperation of insurers, doctors, and hospitals.

Read: The dangerous delays in U.S. coronavirus testing haven’t stopped

When: Friday, March 13
The claim: Google engineers are building a website to help Americans determine whether they need testing for the coronavirus and to direct them to their nearest testing site.
The truth: The announcement was news to Google itself—the website Trump (and other administration officials) described was actually being built by Verily, a division of Alphabet, the parent company of Google. The Verge first reported on Trump’s error, citing a Google representative who confirmed that Verily was working on a “triage website” with limited coverage for the San Francisco Bay Area. But since then, Google has pivoted to fulfill Trump’s public proclamation, saying it would speed up the development of a new, separate website while Verily worked on finishing its project, The Washington Post reported.

When: Tuesday, March 24 and Wednesday, March 25
The claim: The United States has outpaced South Korea’s COVID-19 testing: “We’re going up proportionally very rapidly,” Trump said during a Fox News town hall.
The truth: While, in absolute numbers, Trump is right about the number of tests administered in the United States, the country still lags behind South Korea’s testing relative to its population. South Korea has conducted about five times as many tests as a proportion of its population relative to the United States. As of this writing, the U.S. has conducted roughly 430,000 tests, according to the COVID-19 Tracking Project, while South Korea has conducted about 350,000, according to the Korean Center for Disease Control.

On Travel Bans and Travelers

When: Wednesday, March 11
The claim: The United States would suspend “all travel from Europe, except the United Kingdom, for the next 30 days,” Trump announced in an Oval Office address.
The truth: The travel restriction would not apply to U.S. citizens, legal permanent residents, or their families returning from Europe. At first, it applied specifically to the 26 European countries that make up the Schengen Area, not all of Europe. Trump later announced the inclusion of the United Kingdom and Ireland in the ban.

Another claim: In the same address, Trump said the travel restrictions would “not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo but various other things as we get approval.”
The truth: Trump followed up in a tweet, explaining that trade and cargo would not be subject to the restrictions.

When: Thursday, March 12
The claim: All U.S. citizens arriving from Europe would be subject to medical screening, COVID-19 testing, and quarantine if necessary. “If an American is coming back or anybody is coming back, we’re testing,” Trump said. “We have a tremendous testing setup where people coming in have to be tested … We’re not putting them on planes if it shows positive, but if they do come here, we’re quarantining.”
The truth: Testing is already severely limited in the United States. It is not true that all Americans returning to the country are being tested, nor that anyone is being forced to quarantine, CNN has reported.

On Taking the Pandemic Seriously

When: Tuesday, March 17
The claim: “I’ve always known this is a real—this is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic … I’ve always viewed it as very serious.”
The truth: Trump has repeatedly downplayed the significance of COVID-19 as outbreaks began stateside. From calling criticism of his handling of the virus a “hoax,” to comparing the coronavirus to a common flu, to worrying about letting sick Americans off cruise ships because they would increase the number of confirmed cases, Trump has used his public statements to send mixed messages and sow doubt about the outbreak’s seriousness.

On COVID-19 Treatments and Vaccines

When: Monday, March 2
The claim: Pharmaceutical companies are going “to have vaccines, I think, relatively soon.”
The truth: The president’s own experts told him during a White House meeting with pharmaceutical leaders earlier that same day that a vaccine could take a year to 18 months to develop. In response, he said he would prefer if it took only a few months. He later claimed, at a campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, that a vaccine would be ready “soon.”

When: Thursday, March 19
The claim: At a press briefing with his coronavirus task force, Trump said the FDA had approved the antimalarial drug chloroquine to treat COVID-19. “Normally the FDA would take a long time to approve something like that, and it’s—it was approved very, very quickly and it’s now approved by prescription,” he said.
The truth: FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn, who was at the briefing, quickly clarified that the drug still had to be tested in a clinical setting. An FDA representative later told Bloomberg that the drug has not been approved for COVID-19 use, though a doctor could still prescribe it for that purpose. Later that same day, Fauci told CNN that there is no “magic drug” to cure COVID-19: “Today, there are no proven safe and effective therapies for the coronavirus.”

Read: Anthony Fauci’s plan to stay honest

On the Defense Production Act

When: Friday, March 20
The claim: Trump twice said during a task-force briefing that he had invoked the Defense Production Act, a Korean War–era law that enables the federal government to order private industry to produce certain items and materials for national use. He also said the federal government was already using its authority under the law: “We have a lot of people working very hard to do ventilators and various other things.”
The truth: Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Peter Gaynor told CNN on March 22 that the president has not actually used the DPA to order private companies to produce anything. Shortly after that, Trump backtracked, saying that he had not compelled private companies to take action. Then, on March 24, Gaynor told CNN that FEMA plans to use the DPA to allocate 60,000 test kits. Trump tweeted afterward that the DPA would not be used.

When: Saturday, March 21
The claim: Automobile companies that have volunteered to manufacture medical equipment, such as ventilators, are “making them right now.”
The truth: Ford and General Motors, which Trump mentioned at a task-force briefing the same day, announced earlier in March that they had halted all factory production in North America and were likely months away from beginning production of ventilators, representatives told the Associated Press. Since then, Ford CEO James Hackett told CNN that the auto company will begin to work with 3M to produce respirators and with General Electric to assemble ventilators. GM said it will explore the possibility of producing ventilators in an Indiana factory. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, whose company Trump highlighted in a tweet, has said that the company is “working on ventilators” but that they cannot be produced “instantly.”

On States’ Resources

When: Tuesday, March 24
The claim: Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York passed on an opportunity to purchase 16,000 ventilators at a low cost in 2015, Trump said during the Fox News town hall.
The truth: Trump seems to have gleaned this claim from a Gateway Pundit article. That piece, in turn, cites a syndicated column from Betsy McCaughey, a former lieutenant governor of New York, which includes a figure close to 16,000. The number comes from a 2015 report from the state’s health department that provided guidance for how New York could handle a possible flu pandemic. The report notes that the state would need 15,783 more ventilators than it had at the time to aid patients during “an influenza pandemic on the scale of the 1918 pandemic.” The report does not include a recommendation to Cuomo for additional purchases or stockpiling. Trump “obviously didn’t read the document he’s citing,” a Cuomo representative said in a statement.

Another claim: Trump also repeated a claim from the Gateway Pundit article that Cuomo’s office established “death panels” and “lotteries” as part of the state’s pandemic response.
The truth: The 2015 report and the accompanying press release announced updated guidelines for hospitals to follow to allocate ventilators. The guidelines “call for a triage officer or triage committee to determine who receives or continues to receive ventilator therapy” and describes how a random lottery allocation might work. (Neither should be the first options for deciding care, the report notes.) Cuomo never established a lottery.

----------------

Suck on that Jimbo.
I still think almost everyone is wrong and I am right.
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
As silver tears they weave and lace, Sad patterns upon her face

User avatar
Rorschach
Posts: 2248
Joined: 02 Jun 2008, 12:43

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Rorschach » 26 Mar 2020, 14:08

Here are some links to people who know what they're talking about which include estimated fatality rates (I've quoted the headline figures from some of the longer pieces):

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/coronavirus-myths-and-facts/

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/covid-19-update-what-you-need-to-know/

the lowest estimates (around 0.7%) are at least five to seven times higher than the case fatality rates for seasonal influenza (0.1%), and the highest CDC-estimated rate is around 30 times more deadly than the flu.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article

We estimated the case-fatality risk for 2019 novel coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%–3.0% probably should be considered.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20

3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3
Bugger off.

User avatar
Jimbo
Posts: 17291
Joined: 26 Dec 2009, 21:22

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Jimbo » 26 Mar 2020, 14:37

Thanks for the links. I switched machines and read the Atlantic article and boy did that pack a wallop of considerable information. But this thing is so unbelievable I really can't believe it, it's too unreal so I will continue to look for holes in the narrative in order to be hopeful cuz that article was too, too dark.

And I do like to argue.

Going back to what Rappaport found in the Public Health England document.

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK
.

We scroll down to see what an HCID is.

Definition of HCID

In the UK, a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) is defined according to the following criteria:

acute infectious disease
typically has a high case-fatality rate
may not have effective prophylaxis or treatment
often difficult to recognise and detect rapidly
ability to spread in the community and within healthcare settings
requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely


So, if Covid-19 is no longer an HCID the criteria need to be swapped, i.e., it is NOT an acute infectious disease, NOT a high-case fatality rate, MAY HAVE a effective treatment, often ISN'T difficult to recognize and detect rapidly, LACKS ability to spread. and DOES NOT require an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely.

So now I have two narratives, the scary Atlantic article and a more hopeful one from Public Health England. If Covid-19 ain't as bad as they had thought it was (or said it was) then all those scary future projections in the Atlantic article are moot.
You don't have to be smart to see how fucked up this shit is. Jimmy Dore

User avatar
Diamond Dog
"Self Quoter" Extraordinaire.
Posts: 68782
Joined: 16 Jul 2003, 21:04
Location: High On Poachers Hill

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Diamond Dog » 26 Mar 2020, 14:57

Jimbo wrote:
As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK
.

We scroll down to see what an HCID is.

Definition of HCID

In the UK, a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) is defined according to the following criteria:

acute infectious disease
typically has a high case-fatality rate
may not have effective prophylaxis or treatment
often difficult to recognise and detect rapidly
ability to spread in the community and within healthcare settings
requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely


So, if Covid-19 is no longer an HCID the criteria need to be swapped, i.e., it is NOT an acute infectious disease, NOT a high-case fatality rate, MAY HAVE a effective treatment, often ISN'T difficult to recognize and detect rapidly, LACKS ability to spread. and DOES NOT require an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely.



That is simply not the case. It only needs ONE of those criteria to no longer be met for it to fall out of the HCID category. That ONE criteria being the "typically has a high case-fatality rate" which has already been explained above.

Stop fucking lying.
I still think almost everyone is wrong and I am right.
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
As silver tears they weave and lace, Sad patterns upon her face

User avatar
Jimbo
Posts: 17291
Joined: 26 Dec 2009, 21:22

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Jimbo » 26 Mar 2020, 15:06

Diamond Dog wrote:

That is simply not the case. It only needs ONE of those criteria to no longer be met for it to fall out of the HCID category. That ONE criteria being the "typically has a high case-fatality rate" which has already been explained above.


How do you figure the ONE criteria thing? It says "according to the following criteria," NOT "according to any one of the following criteria." Those are the criteria. As I read it all of those criteria need to be met.

And do you mean this from "above"?

Diamond Dog wrote:
The question of its virulence is difficult to forecast because the numbers infected are probably so many times that which we know - therefore the % of fatalities will be significantly reduced once those numbers become apparent. I'm not in anyway under-estimating the fatalities, Tym
.

Can't understand it. Parse it, could you.
You don't have to be smart to see how fucked up this shit is. Jimmy Dore

User avatar
Diamond Dog
"Self Quoter" Extraordinaire.
Posts: 68782
Joined: 16 Jul 2003, 21:04
Location: High On Poachers Hill

Re: Post something you've learnt today

Postby Diamond Dog » 26 Mar 2020, 18:07

Diamond Dog wrote:That is simply not the case. It only needs ONE of those criteria to no longer be met for it to fall out of the HCID category. That ONE criteria being the "typically has a high case-fatality rate" which has already been explained above.


Jimbo wrote:How do you figure the ONE criteria thing? It says "according to the following criteria," NOT "according to any one of the following criteria." Those are the criteria. As I read it all of those criteria need to be met.


From the Government page you yourself claim to have read :

Status of COVID-19

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.
I still think almost everyone is wrong and I am right.
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
As silver tears they weave and lace, Sad patterns upon her face