Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

in reality, all of this has been a total load of old bollocks

Nick Clegg = TRAITOR

AGREE
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DISAGREE
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Total votes: 40

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La Denim
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby La Denim » 10 May 2010, 09:19

Thesiger wrote:
Betty Denim wrote: What I meant (sorry might not be explaining it correctly) is not who gets first opportunity but why do the LibDems are obliged to - constitutionally - talk first to the party with most seats as Samoan seems to say (I think!). I would have thought the third party - or others - could or should talk to the one they feel most aligned with, if at all?


Well the maths show that adding Lib Dem seats plus Labour seats doesn't reach the threshold to guarantee a stable government (in terms of Votes of Confidence and Queen's Speech etc). Add Conservative seats to Lib Dem seats, however, and you've easily got that. The LIb Dem/Cons alliance is the only feasible two party coalition to guarantee a working majority in the House.


Ah, I see; thanks for explaining it :) . If, just out of interest, there was less of a gap between the number of seats the first two parties had and he would be able to form a majority coalition with either, is he constitutionally obliged to talk to the one with the most seats first or is it just something he decided he would do?
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby Errant Panda » 10 May 2010, 09:21

Betty Denim wrote:
Thesiger wrote:
Betty Denim wrote: What I meant (sorry might not be explaining it correctly) is not who gets first opportunity but why do the LibDems are obliged to - constitutionally - talk first to the party with most seats as Samoan seems to say (I think!). I would have thought the third party - or others - could or should talk to the one they feel most aligned with, if at all?


Well the maths show that adding Lib Dem seats plus Labour seats doesn't reach the threshold to guarantee a stable government (in terms of Votes of Confidence and Queen's Speech etc). Add Conservative seats to Lib Dem seats, however, and you've easily got that. The LIb Dem/Cons alliance is the only feasible two party coalition to guarantee a working majority in the House.


Ah, I see; thanks for explaining it :) . If, just out of interest, there was less of a gap between the number of seats the first two parties had and he would be able to form a majority coalition with either, is he constitutionally obliged to talk to the one with the most seats first or is it just something he decided he would do?


He's not constitutionally obliged to talk to anyone.

So far as the constitution says anything, Brown has first go at getting a majority. That doesn't mean that Clegg has to listen to him or negotiate with him if he chooses not to.

Clegg had already made clear that he won't work with Brown and would work with the party with most seats and votes, so when Brown ceded first go to Cameron, he was really making a virtue out of necessity.
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby Copehead » 10 May 2010, 09:24

Errant Panda wrote:It's important to realise quite how weak Clegg's position actually is.

As Thesiger noted, the rainbow coalition idea is a pipedream. Even if every non-Tory MP signed up, they would only have a majority of 4. And the various nationalists would take the exchequer to the cleaners when it came time to sort out the massive cuts needed to save the economy.

If Clegg can't deliver some kind of deal, there will be another election in a few months, and the LibDems will look like even more of a wasted vote as they can't even form coalitions when they have the balance of power.

Clegg is currently stood in the middle of a minefield.


If a rainbow coalition runs for 2 reasons - economic stability and a referendum on PR - it has a chance because all those parties support some form of PR.

The stumbling block would be getting every labour MP onside which may prove impossible
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby La Denim » 10 May 2010, 09:25

Errant Panda wrote:
He's not constitutionally obliged to talk to anyone.

So far as the constitution says anything, Brown has first go at getting a majority. That doesn't mean that Clegg has to listen to him or negotiate with him if he chooses not to.

Clegg had already made clear that he won't work with Brown and would work with the party with most seats and votes, so when Brown ceded first go to Cameron, he was really making a virtue out of necessity.


I'm thoroughly confused now as you seem to be saying the opposite of what Beebs and Samoan are saying. Samoan seemed to be saying he had to talk to the party with the largest majority first because of the constitution and Beebsy said the party with the largest number of seats gets first go at forming a majority.

Although I thought your perspective was right.

:|
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby Errant Panda » 10 May 2010, 09:32

Copehead wrote:
If a rainbow coalition runs for 2 reasons - economic stability and a referendum on PR - it has a chance because all those parties support some form of PR.

The stumbling block would be getting every labour MP onside which may prove impossible


Quite a lot of Labour MPs are just as wedded to FPP as the Tories. There's also more than a few who would welcome some time in opposition to have a nice internicine battle.

And the SNP, PC and DUP would make sure the deficit was born by England and England alone.
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby Corporate whore » 10 May 2010, 09:33

Betty Denim wrote:
Errant Panda wrote:
He's not constitutionally obliged to talk to anyone.

So far as the constitution says anything, Brown has first go at getting a majority. That doesn't mean that Clegg has to listen to him or negotiate with him if he chooses not to.

Clegg had already made clear that he won't work with Brown and would work with the party with most seats and votes, so when Brown ceded first go to Cameron, he was really making a virtue out of necessity.


I'm thoroughly confused now as you seem to be saying the opposite of what Beebs and Samoan are saying. Samoan seemed to be saying he had to talk to the party with the largest majority first because of the constitution and Beebsy said the party with the largest number of seats gets first go at forming a majority.

Although I thought your perspective was right.

:|


I think that the confusion might be that it is Gorden Brown who constitutionaly gets first shot at forming a government.
If in response Clegg says 'piss off Gordo, I'm going for a Latte with Diamond Dave' then there is nothing that Gordo can do about it, and Clegg is not bound by any convention - he is after all not the only party leader.

I think its emerging that Clegg has absolutely no time for Brown (and/or vice versa) as a man, and that is one of the obsticles. I can't wait for the story to emerge on that one.
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby Copehead » 10 May 2010, 09:34

Errant Panda wrote:
Copehead wrote:
If a rainbow coalition runs for 2 reasons - economic stability and a referendum on PR - it has a chance because all those parties support some form of PR.

The stumbling block would be getting every labour MP onside which may prove impossible


Quite a lot of Labour MPs are just as wedded to FPP as the Tories. There's also more than a few who would welcome some time in opposition to have a nice internicine battle.

And the SNP, PC and DUP would make sure the deficit was born by England and England alone.


I'm not sure nationalists are as stupid as you make out. PR is massively to their benefit why would they scupper their long term electoral chances for a short term financial benefit?
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby Errant Panda » 10 May 2010, 09:36

Basically the incumbent stays on until someone else demonstrates that they have a majority.

This can be interpreted as saying that Brown has first dibs at forming a coalition, but this does not extend to obliging any other party to deal with him if they don't want to. He can try all he wants but if they won't take his calls (figuratively speaking) he can't make them.

Brown has tried to make it look better by explicitly ceding to Cameron the 'right' to talk to Clegg first, glossing over the fact that Clegg had already said he won't deal with Brown, and would deal with the party with most votes and most seats.

There is no constitutional reason for him to do either - it's just politics - though the moral case for talking to Cameron first is fairly strong.
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby Corporate whore » 10 May 2010, 09:37

Errant Panda wrote:And the SNP, PC and DUP would make sure the deficit was born by England and England alone.


At least until the next election - when the vengance of the ruling party would be swift (at least if its Tory).
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby Errant Panda » 10 May 2010, 09:39

Copehead wrote:
I'm not sure nationalists are as stupid as you make out. PR is massively to their benefit why would they scupper their long term electoral chances for a short term financial benefit?


Because their countries are economic basket-cases entirely dependent on public largesse?

The SNP would also hold out for a referendum on independence or my name is Hamish McTavish.
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby Copehead » 10 May 2010, 09:42

Errant Panda wrote:
Copehead wrote:
I'm not sure nationalists are as stupid as you make out. PR is massively to their benefit why would they scupper their long term electoral chances for a short term financial benefit?


Because their countries are economic basket-cases entirely dependent on public largesse?

The SNP would also hold out for a referendum on independence or my name is Hamish McTavish.


There is nothing stopping the SNP from holding a referendum on independence now apart from the knowledge that they would lose it, they don't need our permission to run a plebiscite.
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby brotherlouie » 10 May 2010, 09:43

Errant Panda wrote:The SNP would also hold out for a referendum on independence or my name is Hamish McTavish.


And of course if the Tories take a pragmatic view, they might grant them this. Then they would probably stay in power in England for my lifetime.

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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby Errant Panda » 10 May 2010, 09:48

They'd have to change their name from the Conservative and Unionist Party.
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby johnnydefault » 10 May 2010, 09:56

Errant Panda wrote:
Copehead wrote:
I'm not sure nationalists are as stupid as you make out. PR is massively to their benefit why would they scupper their long term electoral chances for a short term financial benefit?


Because their countries are economic basket-cases entirely dependent on public largesse?

The SNP would also hold out for a referendum on independence or my name is Hamish McTavish.


Yeah all our big industries are gone and the oil revenue stream has been milked to with an inch of it's life. We're fuck all use to anyone. You're right! Fuck us!

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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby Thesiger » 10 May 2010, 10:05

brotherlouie wrote:
Errant Panda wrote:The SNP would also hold out for a referendum on independence or my name is Hamish McTavish.


And of course if the Tories take a pragmatic view, they might grant them this. Then they would probably stay in power in England for my lifetime.


I think this is likely to be on the cards sometime in the next decade. If England can shuffle off Scotland to independence, it can tear up the Barnett formula and rid itself of a fiscal drain, whilst at the same time granting the wishes of millions of Scots who would welcome the chance of going-it-alone. The dividend for the Tories would be a huge reduction in Labour representation at Westminster.
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby La Denim » 10 May 2010, 10:09

Thesiger wrote:
brotherlouie wrote:
Errant Panda wrote:The SNP would also hold out for a referendum on independence or my name is Hamish McTavish.


And of course if the Tories take a pragmatic view, they might grant them this. Then they would probably stay in power in England for my lifetime.


I think this is likely to be on the cards sometime in the next decade. If England can shuffle off Scotland to independence, it can tear up the Barnett formula and rid itself of a fiscal drain, whilst at the same time granting the wishes of millions of Scots who would welcome the chance of going-it-alone. The dividend for the Tories would be a huge reduction in Labour representation at Westminster.


I thought the Scottish Conservatives oppose independence though?
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby Deebank » 10 May 2010, 10:10

Betty Denim wrote:
I thought the Scottish Conservatives oppose independence though?


Does he?
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby La Denim » 10 May 2010, 10:12

Deebank wrote:
Betty Denim wrote:
I thought the Scottish Conservatives oppose independence though?


Does he?


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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby Jeemo » 10 May 2010, 13:34

Thesiger wrote:
brotherlouie wrote:
Errant Panda wrote:The SNP would also hold out for a referendum on independence or my name is Hamish McTavish.


And of course if the Tories take a pragmatic view, they might grant them this. Then they would probably stay in power in England for my lifetime.


I think this is likely to be on the cards sometime in the next decade. If England can shuffle off Scotland to independence, it can tear up the Barnett formula and rid itself of a fiscal drain, whilst at the same time granting the wishes of millions of Scots who would welcome the chance of going-it-alone. The dividend for the Tories would be a huge reduction in Labour representation at Westminster.


Its not up to the Tories to offer anything to the Nats. At every election in Scotland it is understood that if the SNP get a large majority then a referendum will happen.

I know one person that is actively indepedance minded, most are against and the fact that Eck is a fucking chump, makes their case even weaker.
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Re: Nick Clegg = TRAITOR?

Postby Lemon Yoghourt » 10 May 2010, 13:53

I'm undecided on independence....although I would like a referendum... I must say, I don't know many people dead against independence.

Whether it is a Tory/LebDem coalition (or agreement) or minority Tory government I think it will lead to a larger SNP vote in next year's local election and therefore an independence referendum.