President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

[toomanyhatz]

There is still a path to a Trump victory, but it's looking more and more unlikely by the hour.

I will change the thread title if it needs to be changed, but my guess is that won't be necessary.

Complain, cajole, celebrate...as you wish.

[soundchaser]

Say it’s alright Joe.

[Charlie O.]

I sure hope you're right.

Regardless, I wish it wasn't so damned close.

[harvey k-tel]

Touch 'em all Joe. You'll never hit a bigger homerun in your life.

[Tactful Cactus]

I hope you're right.

[Matt Wilson]

Dave's right. I've been saying this for weeks. But Charlie's right as well. I can't fuckin' believe so many Americans still voted for this guy. It should NEVER have been this close. What does Trump have to do to convince people he's an awful human being? Shoot somebody, rape a woman, take a dump on stage during a debate/speech? I mean how low must the bar go before Republicans say enough is enough?

[Dr. Baron]

I'm loathe to post on this thread until the deal is done, but CNN has called Michigan for Biden.
Obviously, it would be nice if AZ and NV hold so any PA litigation is academic.

[Tactful Cactus]

What does Trump have to do to convince people he's an awful human being?

If he had a proper meltdown on camera I think he would lose credibility. People try to will it into existence with headlines like "Trump raged.." or "Trump was furious today..." but honestly I've never seen him be more than just agitated on camera. I don't know if he's more angry in private but he manages to keep it in check when the cameras are rolling.

[Diamond Dog]

I'm loathe to post on this thread until the deal is done, but CNN has called Michigan for Biden.
Obviously, it would be nice if AZ and NV hold so any PA litigation is academic.

I know that both Las Vegas and Phoenix (where most of those absentee votes are) should get Biden over the line in Nevada & Arizona but...there are still 14% of votes to count in those States and I'm still very jittery about them.

[toomanyhatz]

He's scarier when he's being quiet and reasonable. That's when the sociopath vibe really comes out!

[Charlie O.]

What does Trump have to do to convince people he's an awful human being? Shoot somebody, rape a woman, take a dump on stage during a debate/speech? I mean how low must the bar go before Republicans say enough is enough?

Raping a child on stage is probably the only thing Fox News wouldn't try to spin at this point.

[Dr. Baron]

I'm loathe to post on this thread until the deal is done, but CNN has called Michigan for Biden.
Obviously, it would be nice if AZ and NV hold so any PA litigation is academic.

I know that both Las Vegas and Phoenix (where most of those absentee votes are) should get Biden over the line in Nevada & Arizona but...there are still 14% of votes to count in those States and I'm still very jittery about them.

Here’s an explainer on what’s allegedly going on in AZ.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... ing-there/

If Biden wins Arizona, Trump is probably done. Here’s what’s happening there.

As of now, Joe Biden leads President Trump in Arizona by 3.4 percentage points. Both the Associated Press and Fox News have called the state for Biden, but other news organizations have not, pending the counting of another few hundred thousand outstanding votes.

The delay is important, because if Biden wins Arizona, he’s all but certainly going to win the presidency. Various news organizations have already called Wisconsin and Michigan for Biden, and he looks to be holding Nevada. Those, plus Arizona and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, would put Biden at exactly 270 in the electoral college.

So what’s going on in Arizona? Here’s the situation.

Right now, Biden leads Trump by just over 93,000 votes. Around 400,000 to 420,000 mail ballots from Maricopa County remain to be counted, a spokesperson for that county’s election says.

Nearly 250,000 of those arrived on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, while another 160,000 to 180,000 were dropped off on Election Day.

The Biden campaign tells me that its modeling shows that Biden has been netting around 46 percent of the ballots that arrived over those three days and have already been counted. Trump is getting around 53 percent to 54 percent, the campaign says.

Biden is winning the overall votes that have already been counted in Maricopa by 52 percent to 45 percent. The reason those percentages are better for Biden than the ones during more recent days is likely that many of those votes were sent earlier — and arrived before those last few days — precisely because they come from a more Democratic-leaning constituency that availed themselves of mail balloting more promptly. (Nate Cohn suggested a similar possibility on Twitter.)

Regardless, the Biden campaign’s view is that the remaining uncounted ballots that arrived on those later days or were dropped off on Election Day will likely continue narrowly favoring Trump, just like the already-counted ones do. But that’s so narrow an edge that it won’t let Trump make up that 93,000-vote deficit.

“If that margin holds, out of those 400,000 he’s only going to net 30,000,” Andrew Piatt, a senior Arizona adviser to the campaign, told me.

Meanwhile, there may be another 30,000 or so outstanding from Pima County, but that county overwhelmingly favored Biden, so the campaign doesn’t expect those ballots to cut into Biden’s lead.

So that’s the Biden campaign’s thinking. But why haven’t the other news organizations called the race?

It appears that in calling it, the AP ran through a similar set of calculations using its own models, and concluded that it is impossible for Trump to catch up, for similar reasons.

But the AP and Fox reach their conclusions separately from other news organizations, including the major networks, who rely on a joint arrangement with Edison Research to make determinations, Elahe Izadi reports.

A source at one of the major networks told me that the delay in calling the race is simply over the numbers of outstanding ballots in Maricopa. The source told me that their view isn’t necessarily that the AP and Fox call is wrong, but rather that they want to see the count of the outstanding ballots first.

Anyway, that’s what’s going on in Arizona. We’ll just have to sit tight and wait.

[Matt Wilson]

Arizona is pretty much in the bag as far as I'm concerned. I don't see how Trump can win at this point. Biden has 264 votes to Trump's 214. Of the states which are undecided, even if Trump takes Georgia with 16 votes, North Carolina with 15, and Pennsylvania with 20 - that makes 265. Still not enough to win. Joe needs Nevada with six votes and it's a done deal.

[toomanyhatz]

Biden's gonna take Pennsylvania. Don't know if it's going to tip before or after Georgia, but one of them will. And then it's over even without NV (which looks good but is still awfully close).

I'd love North Carolina too, but I might have to let go of that one.

[soundchaser]

No wonder Trump is crying like a baby at how the poll is going, when he has so much to lose...and hopefully, his Liberty.

[Sam Stone]

No wonder Trump is crying like a baby at how the poll is going, when he has so much to lose...and hopefully, his Liberty.

Having managed to increase his following to some 68,600,0000 - over 5,600,000 up on 2016 -
the only time Trump will end up doing is likely to be prime time spots on Fox News.

Given how badly the US is divided and assuming he and the bulk of his voter base don't cark it of
COVID in the mean time, I wouldn't be surprised if he tried running again in 2020

[Deebank]

No wonder Trump is crying like a baby at how the poll is going, when he has so much to lose...and hopefully, his Liberty.

Having managed to increase his following to some 68,600,0000 - over 5,600,000 up on 2016 -
the only time Trump will end up doing is likely to be prime time spots on Fox News.

Given how badly the US is divided and assuming he and the bulk of his voter base don't cark it of
COVID in the mean time, I wouldn't be surprised if he tried running again in 2020

He'll have to make it quick!

[Deebank]

I was thinking that it's a shame Biden didn't wipe the floor with Trump, and it is from the point of view of Trump's humiliation, but I don't think it would have made any difference. Trump was always going to call foul and unleash his legal team whatever the result. He would have claimed victory whatever.

[Sam Stone]

Trump was always going to call foul and unleash his legal team whatever the result. He would have claimed victory whatever.

Agreed. Bullshit and bullying are what he' all about.

There is almost certainly going to be a great deal more Trump-initiated unpleasantness
and upheaval in the coming days.

Let's hope it's over and done with in days rather than weeks or months.

Either way, the only way Trump is going to go away is if he dies*


* Was going to add mentally incapacitated but it doesn't seem to have held him back thus far

[Diamond Dog]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... ing-there/

If Biden wins Arizona, Trump is probably done. Here’s what’s happening there.

As of now, Joe Biden leads President Trump in Arizona by 3.4 percentage points. Both the Associated Press and Fox News have called the state for Biden, but other news organizations have not, pending the counting of another few hundred thousand outstanding votes.......................

A source at one of the major networks told me that the delay in calling the race is simply over the numbers of outstanding ballots in Maricopa. The source told me that their view isn’t necessarily that the AP and Fox call is wrong, but rather that they want to see the count of the outstanding ballots first.

Anyway, that’s what’s going on in Arizona. We’ll just have to sit tight and wait.

Cheers Baron, much appreciated!