Hightea wrote:Lord Rother wrote:And I don’t think the criticism of Biden not flying around the country every day is fair.
Prepping for the debate is VITAL.
Trump isn’t winning anybody new with his rallies. All he’s doing is preaching to a few thousand of his followers.
Getting it right in the debate, in front of 60 million, including the vast majority of the undecideds I’d have thought, is the right path to take. Trump won’t be able to win the debate just repeating all his old nonsense that everybody has heard numerous times before, in 2 minute blasts. It just won’t work. And that’s basically all he’s got.
The format will blunt his “style” and give Biden clear space to get his points across, directly into the camera. That’s just not something Trump can do, especially if he’s not prepping, which of course, he isn’t.
LR I hope your right but I'm feeling different right now.
Yes Kath all the toss ups are in play, but I think I'm see a path I didn't see just a few weeks ago and its got e scared. I can't handle 4 more years of this moron let alone a few more months.
we are all there, ya know. no one can handle 4 more years. our country can't.
but i will *try* to explain why i am not as worried about some of these close polls on the state level.
okay, let's see if i can get any of this out, mwhahaha.
there is one thing that everyone (who is not a trump or minion) agrees on. trump has been absolutely shedding out support from two key groups: women and seniors.
this changes things on many fronts.
for example, that quinnipiac poll that has biden up by 8 in penn? a suffolk poll right before it had biden up in penn by 7.
greg sargent, a washington post writer (and one of those guys i trust) explains the difference this way:
"The crosstabs for the new Q poll putting Biden up by +8 in Pennsylvania find much the same story that the Suffolk poll did: Biden is tied among white voters and leading by double digits among seniors. The more granular polling bears out all these trends:
House-district polling is telling a grim story for Trump.
I spoke to Reddisrict about all the private data he is seeing.
'Trump is underperforming 2016 margins by 8 to 10 points in most competitive districts.'"
this is important for two reasons:
1. the same trends are also what is happening in districts and counties elsewhere when it comes to suburban women,
2. it reflects sumthin that is certainly the case with trump and his repubs: they are seeing internal polls that are much, much worse than what is coming out on regular media.
as for 1....the conventional wisdom in say, georgia, was that sure, atlanta the only huge city in the state, is always gonna go dem, but repubs could count on the suburbs and the rural voters to overcome that. but the suburban support just aint the same now. suburban women have turned away from trump to biden in big numbers. it's gonna spell trouble. what is trump gonna be left with to overcome that loss? and if you think georgia is the only state where that very non-conventional thing is gonna play out, i think yer mistaken. it doesn't mean i'm coming out and predicting he will lose georgia. but he *is* in trouble there he hasn't known yet.
as for 2... they are all panicking and desperate for a reason. why do you think trump is fucquin losing it? no, this is hardly scientific analysis, but he is most definitely not acting like a man who thinks he has a good chance. he is runnin around like a deranged fruitbat begging women to like him and vote for him. (er... while insulting them at the same time. yeah.) he is enraged his AG hasn't already arrested his political opponent. he is frenzied.
yes, while in a few states there is strong turnout for both repub and dem, i think it is also clear overall that it is not even steven. the dems have a clear advantage, based on both exit polling and voter registration numbers. i would even go so far as to say it looks like a wave. (in fact, the polls this time may not be even geared to account for what 'likely voters' may mean this election, but i'll just leave that there as a fairly uncooked thought. mwhaha.) those massive lines in georgia with an eleven-hour wait were also in districts the repubs have been trying their hardest to suppress. they know black voters would decimate them if voting were easy and normal for them. well, those voters have been going through unbelievable lines to get their votes in. i watched the effect of that in real time in alabama, when doug jones won. this other aspect of non-conventional wisdom could very well be at play in many states, too, regardless of how close the polls may look.
yes, races do tend to tighten closer to election day, although so far, biden has held up remarkably consistently on national average. trump is getting no boost, at least yet, on those. he has not gotten any boost, not after the convention, not after any debate or town hall, and not after he got covid. and many of these close races... the trend. four year ago, trump won iowa by 9 points. now, he's down 3.
florida is indeed always a mess, but the seems-to-always-work-out-for-rep isn't really a definitive thing to go by with the above shifts considered. i don't know the numbers for latinos in florida or arizona, but trump is doing catastrophically bad with blacks nationally (and the black turnout as i said has been huge... these are most assuredly not trump voters.) but the trend, the shift, is important. just watching the seniors in the villages gettin in wars over trump or biden is an incredible thing to watch. the senior vote, in a state full of seniors, was always a lock-in. it's not anymore.
the trend is backed up by all sorts of other things, too. dem candidates are massively (and i do mean fucquin massively) outfunding their repub counterparts. if it aint all of em, it is easily the huge majority of em. the numbers are staggering. jaime harrison in one month pulled in 57 million. it is unheard of. more non-conventional goings-on. who is sending in all this money? not super pacs, no dark money. regular people with small-dollar contributions. it takes a lotttta pissed off people who want change to do a thing on that scale.
i'm not sure i agree on yer worries about biden "hiding" out, mistakenly preppin for the debate, that kinda thing. this aint the clinton election. things are very, very different. trump is out there multiple times a week, and he is not improving his standing. he is just not gaining voters in any significant way. he is losing them. (man, has he lost independents big time.) he hasn't even been trying to expand beyond his base. his really is a game of subtraction.
meanwhile, biden has and has had a steady plus favorability percentage, sumthin clinton never once had. i think people, even people who don't pay much attention to politics or the media, know who biden is. they know who trump is.
also keep in mind that biden is flush with cash and has been pumping ads everywhere, especially in swing states. trump has actually dropped ads in mahy states. even here in louisiana, i am seeing easily ten biden ads to every one trump. yer mileage may vary, of course. i guess i'm sayin i don't think biden has been invisible at all. and he won't be, post-debate.
i like this recent ad. aired during the world series. i probably like it becuz i am a sucker for sam elliott.
but ya know... trump can't make a basic argument like this. he is not making a coherent message. he cannot steal any biden supporters. people are sick of it.
however, you are right. only time will tell. yeah, trump could win all the states he needs to win and biden could lose em all. it could happen. all of the fucquery could win out.
... or not. mwhahahaha.
don't give up hope. i guess that's my main message. vote. take someone else to vote.