Anyone watching the debate tonight?

in reality, all of this has been a total load of old bollocks
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kath
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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby kath » 21 Oct 2020, 22:00

Hightea wrote:
Lord Rother wrote:And I don’t think the criticism of Biden not flying around the country every day is fair.

Prepping for the debate is VITAL.

Trump isn’t winning anybody new with his rallies. All he’s doing is preaching to a few thousand of his followers.

Getting it right in the debate, in front of 60 million, including the vast majority of the undecideds I’d have thought, is the right path to take. Trump won’t be able to win the debate just repeating all his old nonsense that everybody has heard numerous times before, in 2 minute blasts. It just won’t work. And that’s basically all he’s got.

The format will blunt his “style” and give Biden clear space to get his points across, directly into the camera. That’s just not something Trump can do, especially if he’s not prepping, which of course, he isn’t.

LR I hope your right but I'm feeling different right now.

Yes Kath all the toss ups are in play, but I think I'm see a path I didn't see just a few weeks ago and its got e scared. I can't handle 4 more years of this moron let alone a few more months.


we are all there, ya know. no one can handle 4 more years. our country can't.

but i will *try* to explain why i am not as worried about some of these close polls on the state level.

okay, let's see if i can get any of this out, mwhahaha.

there is one thing that everyone (who is not a trump or minion) agrees on. trump has been absolutely shedding out support from two key groups: women and seniors.

this changes things on many fronts.

for example, that quinnipiac poll that has biden up by 8 in penn? a suffolk poll right before it had biden up in penn by 7.

greg sargent, a washington post writer (and one of those guys i trust) explains the difference this way:

"The crosstabs for the new Q poll putting Biden up by +8 in Pennsylvania find much the same story that the Suffolk poll did: Biden is tied among white voters and leading by double digits among seniors. The more granular polling bears out all these trends:

House-district polling is telling a grim story for Trump.

I spoke to Reddisrict about all the private data he is seeing.

'Trump is underperforming 2016 margins by 8 to 10 points in most competitive districts.'"

this is important for two reasons:

1. the same trends are also what is happening in districts and counties elsewhere when it comes to suburban women,

and

2. it reflects sumthin that is certainly the case with trump and his repubs: they are seeing internal polls that are much, much worse than what is coming out on regular media.

as for 1....the conventional wisdom in say, georgia, was that sure, atlanta the only huge city in the state, is always gonna go dem, but repubs could count on the suburbs and the rural voters to overcome that. but the suburban support just aint the same now. suburban women have turned away from trump to biden in big numbers. it's gonna spell trouble. what is trump gonna be left with to overcome that loss? and if you think georgia is the only state where that very non-conventional thing is gonna play out, i think yer mistaken. it doesn't mean i'm coming out and predicting he will lose georgia. but he *is* in trouble there he hasn't known yet.

as for 2... they are all panicking and desperate for a reason. why do you think trump is fucquin losing it? no, this is hardly scientific analysis, but he is most definitely not acting like a man who thinks he has a good chance. he is runnin around like a deranged fruitbat begging women to like him and vote for him. (er... while insulting them at the same time. yeah.) he is enraged his AG hasn't already arrested his political opponent. he is frenzied.


yes, while in a few states there is strong turnout for both repub and dem, i think it is also clear overall that it is not even steven. the dems have a clear advantage, based on both exit polling and voter registration numbers. i would even go so far as to say it looks like a wave. (in fact, the polls this time may not be even geared to account for what 'likely voters' may mean this election, but i'll just leave that there as a fairly uncooked thought. mwhaha.) those massive lines in georgia with an eleven-hour wait were also in districts the repubs have been trying their hardest to suppress. they know black voters would decimate them if voting were easy and normal for them. well, those voters have been going through unbelievable lines to get their votes in. i watched the effect of that in real time in alabama, when doug jones won. this other aspect of non-conventional wisdom could very well be at play in many states, too, regardless of how close the polls may look.

yes, races do tend to tighten closer to election day, although so far, biden has held up remarkably consistently on national average. trump is getting no boost, at least yet, on those. he has not gotten any boost, not after the convention, not after any debate or town hall, and not after he got covid. and many of these close races... the trend. four year ago, trump won iowa by 9 points. now, he's down 3.

florida is indeed always a mess, but the seems-to-always-work-out-for-rep isn't really a definitive thing to go by with the above shifts considered. i don't know the numbers for latinos in florida or arizona, but trump is doing catastrophically bad with blacks nationally (and the black turnout as i said has been huge... these are most assuredly not trump voters.) but the trend, the shift, is important. just watching the seniors in the villages gettin in wars over trump or biden is an incredible thing to watch. the senior vote, in a state full of seniors, was always a lock-in. it's not anymore.

the trend is backed up by all sorts of other things, too. dem candidates are massively (and i do mean fucquin massively) outfunding their repub counterparts. if it aint all of em, it is easily the huge majority of em. the numbers are staggering. jaime harrison in one month pulled in 57 million. it is unheard of. more non-conventional goings-on. who is sending in all this money? not super pacs, no dark money. regular people with small-dollar contributions. it takes a lotttta pissed off people who want change to do a thing on that scale.

i'm not sure i agree on yer worries about biden "hiding" out, mistakenly preppin for the debate, that kinda thing. this aint the clinton election. things are very, very different. trump is out there multiple times a week, and he is not improving his standing. he is just not gaining voters in any significant way. he is losing them. (man, has he lost independents big time.) he hasn't even been trying to expand beyond his base. his really is a game of subtraction.

meanwhile, biden has and has had a steady plus favorability percentage, sumthin clinton never once had. i think people, even people who don't pay much attention to politics or the media, know who biden is. they know who trump is.

also keep in mind that biden is flush with cash and has been pumping ads everywhere, especially in swing states. trump has actually dropped ads in mahy states. even here in louisiana, i am seeing easily ten biden ads to every one trump. yer mileage may vary, of course. i guess i'm sayin i don't think biden has been invisible at all. and he won't be, post-debate.

i like this recent ad. aired during the world series. i probably like it becuz i am a sucker for sam elliott.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1318717513656655873

but ya know... trump can't make a basic argument like this. he is not making a coherent message. he cannot steal any biden supporters. people are sick of it.

however, you are right. only time will tell. yeah, trump could win all the states he needs to win and biden could lose em all. it could happen. all of the fucquery could win out.

... or not. mwhahahaha.

don't give up hope. i guess that's my main message. vote. take someone else to vote.

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby Charlie O. » 21 Oct 2020, 22:17

kath wrote:also keep in mind that biden is flush with cash and has been pumping ads everywhere, especially in swing states. trump has actually dropped ads in many states.

Not to mention The Lincoln Project and other high-visibility Republicans Against Trump/Republicans For Biden organizations. What other Republican candidate, let alone incumbent President, has had to deal with a backlash on this scale from people in their own party before?
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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby Dr. Baron » 21 Oct 2020, 22:19

Charlie O. wrote:
kath wrote:also keep in mind that biden is flush with cash and has been pumping ads everywhere, especially in swing states. trump has actually dropped ads in many states.

Not to mention The Lincoln Project and other high-visibility Republicans Against Trump/Republicans For Biden organizations. What other Republican candidate, let alone incumbent President, has had to deal with a backlash on this scale from people in their own party before?


Well, there was Ross Perot probably sinking King George I's battleship in 1992 or whenever that was. And I voted for Nader in 2000 because the Democrats were sellout Republicans and there was no real difference between Al Gore and King George II. But, yeah, not really the same.
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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby Hightea » 22 Oct 2020, 05:01

kath wrote:
Hightea wrote:
Lord Rother wrote:And I don’t think the criticism of Biden not flying around the country every day is fair.

Prepping for the debate is VITAL.

Trump isn’t winning anybody new with his rallies. All he’s doing is preaching to a few thousand of his followers.

Getting it right in the debate, in front of 60 million, including the vast majority of the undecideds I’d have thought, is the right path to take. Trump won’t be able to win the debate just repeating all his old nonsense that everybody has heard numerous times before, in 2 minute blasts. It just won’t work. And that’s basically all he’s got.

The format will blunt his “style” and give Biden clear space to get his points across, directly into the camera. That’s just not something Trump can do, especially if he’s not prepping, which of course, he isn’t.

LR I hope your right but I'm feeling different right now.

Yes Kath all the toss ups are in play, but I think I'm see a path I didn't see just a few weeks ago and its got e scared. I can't handle 4 more years of this moron let alone a few more months.


we are all there, ya know. no one can handle 4 more years. our country can't.

but i will *try* to explain why i am not as worried about some of these close polls on the state level.

okay, let's see if i can get any of this out, mwhahaha.

there is one thing that everyone (who is not a trump or minion) agrees on. trump has been absolutely shedding out support from two key groups: women and seniors.

this changes things on many fronts.

for example, that quinnipiac poll that has biden up by 8 in penn? a suffolk poll right before it had biden up in penn by 7.

greg sargent, a washington post writer (and one of those guys i trust) explains the difference this way:

"The crosstabs for the new Q poll putting Biden up by +8 in Pennsylvania find much the same story that the Suffolk poll did: Biden is tied among white voters and leading by double digits among seniors. The more granular polling bears out all these trends:

House-district polling is telling a grim story for Trump.

I spoke to Reddisrict about all the private data he is seeing.

'Trump is underperforming 2016 margins by 8 to 10 points in most competitive districts.'"

this is important for two reasons:

1. the same trends are also what is happening in districts and counties elsewhere when it comes to suburban women,

and

2. it reflects sumthin that is certainly the case with trump and his repubs: they are seeing internal polls that are much, much worse than what is coming out on regular media.

as for 1....the conventional wisdom in say, georgia, was that sure, atlanta the only huge city in the state, is always gonna go dem, but repubs could count on the suburbs and the rural voters to overcome that. but the suburban support just aint the same now. suburban women have turned away from trump to biden in big numbers. it's gonna spell trouble. what is trump gonna be left with to overcome that loss? and if you think georgia is the only state where that very non-conventional thing is gonna play out, i think yer mistaken. it doesn't mean i'm coming out and predicting he will lose georgia. but he *is* in trouble there he hasn't known yet.

as for 2... they are all panicking and desperate for a reason. why do you think trump is fucquin losing it? no, this is hardly scientific analysis, but he is most definitely not acting like a man who thinks he has a good chance. he is runnin around like a deranged fruitbat begging women to like him and vote for him. (er... while insulting them at the same time. yeah.) he is enraged his AG hasn't already arrested his political opponent. he is frenzied.


yes, while in a few states there is strong turnout for both repub and dem, i think it is also clear overall that it is not even steven. the dems have a clear advantage, based on both exit polling and voter registration numbers. i would even go so far as to say it looks like a wave. (in fact, the polls this time may not be even geared to account for what 'likely voters' may mean this election, but i'll just leave that there as a fairly uncooked thought. mwhaha.) those massive lines in georgia with an eleven-hour wait were also in districts the repubs have been trying their hardest to suppress. they know black voters would decimate them if voting were easy and normal for them. well, those voters have been going through unbelievable lines to get their votes in. i watched the effect of that in real time in alabama, when doug jones won. this other aspect of non-conventional wisdom could very well be at play in many states, too, regardless of how close the polls may look.

yes, races do tend to tighten closer to election day, although so far, biden has held up remarkably consistently on national average. trump is getting no boost, at least yet, on those. he has not gotten any boost, not after the convention, not after any debate or town hall, and not after he got covid. and many of these close races... the trend. four year ago, trump won iowa by 9 points. now, he's down 3.

florida is indeed always a mess, but the seems-to-always-work-out-for-rep isn't really a definitive thing to go by with the above shifts considered. i don't know the numbers for latinos in florida or arizona, but trump is doing catastrophically bad with blacks nationally (and the black turnout as i said has been huge... these are most assuredly not trump voters.) but the trend, the shift, is important. just watching the seniors in the villages gettin in wars over trump or biden is an incredible thing to watch. the senior vote, in a state full of seniors, was always a lock-in. it's not anymore.

the trend is backed up by all sorts of other things, too. dem candidates are massively (and i do mean fucquin massively) outfunding their repub counterparts. if it aint all of em, it is easily the huge majority of em. the numbers are staggering. jaime harrison in one month pulled in 57 million. it is unheard of. more non-conventional goings-on. who is sending in all this money? not super pacs, no dark money. regular people with small-dollar contributions. it takes a lotttta pissed off people who want change to do a thing on that scale.

i'm not sure i agree on yer worries about biden "hiding" out, mistakenly preppin for the debate, that kinda thing. this aint the clinton election. things are very, very different. trump is out there multiple times a week, and he is not improving his standing. he is just not gaining voters in any significant way. he is losing them. (man, has he lost independents big time.) he hasn't even been trying to expand beyond his base. his really is a game of subtraction.

meanwhile, biden has and has had a steady plus favorability percentage, sumthin clinton never once had. i think people, even people who don't pay much attention to politics or the media, know who biden is. they know who trump is.

also keep in mind that biden is flush with cash and has been pumping ads everywhere, especially in swing states. trump has actually dropped ads in mahy states. even here in louisiana, i am seeing easily ten biden ads to every one trump. yer mileage may vary, of course. i guess i'm sayin i don't think biden has been invisible at all. and he won't be, post-debate.

i like this recent ad. aired during the world series. i probably like it becuz i am a sucker for sam elliott.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1318717513656655873

but ya know... trump can't make a basic argument like this. he is not making a coherent message. he cannot steal any biden supporters. people are sick of it.

however, you are right. only time will tell. yeah, trump could win all the states he needs to win and biden could lose em all. it could happen. all of the fucquery could win out.

... or not. mwhahahaha.

don't give up hope. i guess that's my main message. vote. take someone else to vote.
Thanks Kath I needed to gear that, I should have a nice sleep now.

I didn’t think thru the seniors in penn. now going for Biden that can offset other pickups.

also agree a large turnout which also always favors the dems.

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby soundchaser » 22 Oct 2020, 11:00

Kath For President!

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby kath » 22 Oct 2020, 13:07

soundchaser wrote:Kath For President!


you won't be sayin that if i turn out to be wrong. mwhaha.

by the way, i no longer care which current political thread i put anything in, in case ya haven't noticed.

and in the more fucquery department:

emails have been going out, in total to four states, but most of em to florida (shock, shock) that act like they're from the proud boys. entitled "vote trump or else", the email opens with the registered dem recipient's legal name. it asserts the writers have already hacked complex voting infrastructure. they threaten the democrat on the receiving end that if they don't vote for trump, they're gonna pay. "you will vote for trump or we will come after you." the email closes with the dem's real street address and the words, "good luck."

right after the story broke, the FBI held this bizarro press conference to address the issyew. led not by the FBI but by that stupid trump-installed partisan hack heading national intelligence, daniel ratcliffe. ratcliffe said that the whole thing was really launched by iran, and he said this was done to undermine faith in our elections and to, i quote, "damage trump."

wow. how emails threatening people to vote for trump or else is a thing damaging to trump...

but FBI director chris wray did also attend and talk. he made much more sense and tried to allay anyone's fears, saying they were on top of this, the voting system would hold. (the same chris wray who might get fired in tee minus 3...2...)

anyway, this stunt was not particularly sophisticated. voter information such as the stuff the jerkoff emailers had is, in fact, accessible and public, not the result of some complex hack of infrastructure.

BUT on the whole undermining faith in the election system... this is exactly what trump has been rabidly, flagrantly trying to do. sure, evil foreign powers have and will continue to try to fucque up this election, just as they did in 2016, but trump is right along with em, now as then. now we're gonna see trump take this and spin it into the stratosphere as evidence the election was rigged against him.

trump has been wanting another comey moment, right before the election, to swing things in his favor.

i seriously doubt this will have the same effect. but for the next 12 days? hold on to yer asses. mwhahaha. shit's gonna be crazy.


p.s. i'd make a great president. i would surround myself with brilliant, experienced, caring staff, agency heads, etc. so they could head most of the real work. i would tell those dictators that their free passes are over and they can go fucque themselves if they think any ass-kissing will happen again. i'd apologize and make up to our allies. we would have immediate covid protocols nation-wide. i would inform all concerned parties running states, the heads of police forces, etc, that if they did not enforce these mandates, i would use all the power at my discretion to hold them legally responsible for deaths. i can do that, right? i would get folk to work fixin crap.

every now and then, i'd brush my hair and appear in front of a camera and say, hey, how's it goin, people? whatcha need? ::smack:: i would have alice cooper over to the white house. ya ya ya. can i have a court pharmacist? trump has one. i don't see why i can't have one. mike boom is court pharmacist! and baron can be AG. and minnie can head interior. and c can run the dept of prog! (except he'll hafta recuse on all matters involving annie haslam) and and...

maybe it's better i'm not president.

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby soundchaser » 22 Oct 2020, 14:46

God Save Our Gracious Kath... :lol:

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby kath » 23 Oct 2020, 00:23

ohhh. i hope everyone is ready for what is about to happen.

the WH already put out a statement that basically said, "our glorious leader will do whatever he wants, answer only the questions he wants and definitely bring up hunter biden and china, even if the evil mod won't bring it up."

people, make no mistake. this is literally his last chance to make some kinda rallying cry strong enough to win over biden supporters.

i do not think that will happen.

to be brief.

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby kath » 23 Oct 2020, 01:02

i just saw a rare (for me) trump ad before the debate. and it really had the message and graphics of a cheesy used car salesman on crack.

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby Dr. Baron » 23 Oct 2020, 01:16

After the last debate my mind was spinning for hours and I couldn’t get to sleep for several hours after when I normally would. I ain’t watching tonight. I’m sure I’ll hear all about it one way or another.
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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby kath » 23 Oct 2020, 01:36

Dr. Baron wrote:After the last debate my mind was spinning for hours and I couldn’t get to sleep for several hours after when I normally would. I ain’t watching tonight. I’m sure I’ll hear all about it one way or another.


i aint sure i'm gonna make it. just the lead-up is making me break out in hives.

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby soundchaser » 23 Oct 2020, 09:50

So it seems like Donald Trump’s biggest success last night was to insult India. Man, what a chump.

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby kath » 23 Oct 2020, 11:40

soundchaser wrote:So it seems like Donald Trump’s biggest success last night was to insult India. Man, what a chump.


a sick, racist, lying, stupid, empathy-devoid fucquer.

no, he didn't throw a toddler shit fit (cue fox news calling him presidential and "disciplined")... he just spent the entire time spewing his usual nonsense and lies. biden handled it well. continually nailed him for his stupid, delusional crap. he spoke to the american people, gave actual plans, showed empathy. what he usually does.

trump. on immigration. on migrant children. absolutely puke-inducing. only the immigrants with the lowest IQs follow the law. ughhh. biden is the one who built cages for kids!! yeah. the separated children are living in fab conditions. more on tiny windows and and whatever.

trump, tryin his hunter crap, biden in cahoots with china crap, with no real meat and no punch. biden, saying he's released 22 years of tax returns, no connection, where's a single year of trump's? trump has a secret bank acct with china. trump of course, couldn't answer any of that. just more horseshit. trump said he pre-paid millions in taxes. what?? trump tried to accuse biden of making millions from china. just lies. the same bullshit projection.

and the same abysmal responses on covid from trump. "we're learning to live with it, we can't do anything about it, we can't lock ourselves up in a basement like joe here... blahblahblah." biden: "he says we're learning to live with it. people are learning to die with it."

trump insists biden wants to lock the whole country down becuz one bureaucrat in washington says to. biden, we oughtta be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. have safe lockdown and open up aspects carefully. the sane answer. trump, insisting all the spikes in states are gone. the exact opposite is happening. complete bullshit.

biden: this guy thinks wind causes cancer. windmills.

trump: "I know more about wind than you do. It's extremely expensive, kills all the birds ... the fumes coming up to make these massive windmills is more than anything we're talking about with natural gas."

lord.

trump tried to blame pelosi for no stimulus package. biden not having it. trump couldn't even handle a policy point on minimum wage. clueless, lying sack of shit.

biden sarcastically referred to trump as abraham lincoln, and trump is soooo stupid, he was confused by it. he didn't get it.

asked what he'll say during his next inaugural speech to people who didn't vote for him, trump says, "We have to make our country totally successful as it was prior to the plague coming in from China."

er... yeah.

trump looked really happy right after, didn't he?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1319489854044917760

john heilemann's quick take this morning: "so, i think quaalude trump is better than crystal meth trump..." (morning joe then said it must've worn off about an hour fifteen minutes into it...) "yeah, he needed one more quaalude there." said biden was strong throughout. john going on about trump's total lack of preparation, lack of facts, and gibberish that is only even slightly understandable from inside the fox news conspiracy bubble.

trump needed to change the dynamic here. he did not. snap polls: yougov, biden by 19, cnn biden by 14.

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby kath » 23 Oct 2020, 11:56

the lincoln project on twitter:

"poor podium"

Image

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby Phenomenal Cat » 23 Oct 2020, 17:08

Image
kath wrote:i will make it my mission to nail you.


But somehow when you smile, I can brave bad weather.

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby kath » 23 Oct 2020, 19:08

mwhahahaha i'm snoop dogg!

fucquin content.

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby Lord Rother » 23 Oct 2020, 20:11

Worth watching Pakman’s review of last night...

Don’t think I can post the link to the video itself but here is the playlist.

It’s the one that starts “Trump eviscerated....”

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=U ... UGdOPcY8Ag

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby Charlie O. » 23 Oct 2020, 22:01

kath wrote:the lincoln project on twitter:

"poor podium"

Image

I think I figured it out - he stands like that because he thinks it makes him look less fat. If his chest is further out in front than his belly, he isn't fat, right?
Image

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby Hightea » 23 Oct 2020, 23:17

Charlie O. wrote:
kath wrote:the lincoln project on twitter:

"poor podium"

Image

I think I figured it out - he stands like that because he thinks it makes him look less fat. If his chest is further out in front than his belly, he isn't fat, right?


yes an old camera trick, although we all know he is fat. :lol:

We at least we got a real debate this time.
Although Trump was just spitting lies all nite long.

Was screaming at Biden to tell Trump nothing got done under Obama because the rebs controlled the house and senate. He finally did at the end.

Now that I've read the whole story about the Hunter Biden story I see how much BS this is.
First the story initially has ties to QAnon, so say no more.

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Re: Anyone watching the debate tonight?

Postby kath » 24 Oct 2020, 10:39

yeah, the hunter biden crap is sooo debunked already. the same disinformation has been floatin around for a year and a half... and rudy suddddenly found it on a laptop. right. it is beyond stupid (and criminal). happily, no one is buyin it and no one cares. 50 million votes have already been cast in this election. record-shattering.

but i thought i would share this. a guy named tom joseph has been claiming forever the trump has frontotemporal dementia. he regularly takes apart trump's tics, verbal misfires, probs with balance, probs drinking a glass of water, etc.

so be forewarned to take any of this with a grain of salt. after all, trump is obese, drug-addled, wears lift shoes, a major girdle rig and depend undergarments, so his posture issyews need no further explanation, although there are many pics that show just how extreme his.. tilt?... is. (even without a podium in front of him, he stands with that extreme tilt.) i'm gonna share it anyway. this guy typically goes too far, but i honestly believe trump is suffering from some type of neurological degeneration, whatever we call it by name.

this is a pic joseph has on his twitter account:

Image

"See anyone you know? This pic was part of a lecture given in 1888 by Jean-Martin Charcot a renowned French neurologist & professor of anatomical pathology. He was noting precise differences & characteristics of the PSP form of Frontotemporal Dementia even b4 it had its own name"