So, the upcoming UK election...

in reality, all of this has been a total load of old bollocks
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Lord Rother
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Lord Rother » 04 Nov 2019, 06:38

Copehead wrote:
Lord Rother wrote:
Copehead wrote:




Exhibit A


:lol:

Wanna see my payslip?


Go on then pauper tell us how much you earn


:lol:

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Powehi » 04 Nov 2019, 09:54

Interesting article about tactical voting patterns from Prof Curtice in this morning's Times


COMMENT | JOHN CURTICE november 4 2019, 12:01am, the times
The crucial election question: can Remainers agree to vote tactically?

Boris Johnson gave an interesting answer when it was put to him that there was a risk of a split in the Leave vote if he did not take up Nigel Farage’s offer of an electoral deal. The prime minister argued that he could not contemplate any such arrangement because a vote for any other party would risk letting Jeremy Corbyn in.

However, that could happen only if Conservative and Brexit Party candidates were to stand against each other. Mr Johnson’s reply seemed to support the case for reaching an understanding with Mr Farage rather than providing a reason for not doing so.

Meanwhile, those on the other side of the Brexit divide have launched a website that claims to provide the best advice as to how those who oppose Brexit should vote in order to defeat the Conservatives locally.

Both developments illustrate a crucial feature of this election. Both Remain and Leave voters have a choice about how to express their views. And thanks to the ruthless logic of the first-past-the-post electoral system a vote for, say, a poorly placed pro-Remain candidate could allow a pro-Leave candidate to win — and to do so on much less than half the vote. The result will depend on which bloc of voters proves to be the more cohesive.

On this, Mr Johnson and the Leave side start with an advantage. On average in the polls taken since the election was called, 59 per cent of Leave voters say they will vote Conservative — almost the same proportion Mrs May won in 2017 — while the Brexit Party has only 19 per cent. The gap between the two figures has kept on widening. Mr Johnson reckons he can afford not to do a deal with Mr Farage because he is already winning the battle for the Leave vote. Even so, Mr Farage’s determination to challenge Mr Johnson’s Brexit deal is unlikely to be costless for the prime minister. For every one vote Mr Farage has gained among those who voted Labour in 2017, he is still taking two from the Conservatives.


On the Remain side, support is split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. True, the latest polls suggest Labour may have begun to squeeze some Remain votes back but even so while 42 per cent of Remain voters are currently backing Labour, 29 per cent are still opting for the Lib Dems. This split helps explain why Mr Johnson appears headed for an overall majority of about 40. It also explains why some of those who wish to stop Brexit are trying to encourage Remain supporters to vote tactically.

At the last election, the Lib Dems came second to the Conservatives in only 29 seats whereas Labour secured that position in 273.

However, the Lib Dems are stronger and Labour weaker than in 2017. We would now expect the Lib Dems to come second in 105 of the seats the Tories might be expected to win, with Labour in that position in 193. Thus, we would expect a tool designed to encourage voters to vote tactically against the Tories to suggest that the Lib Dems are now better placed to defeat the Conservatives in some of the seats where the party came third last time around.

The crucial question of course is whether Remain supporters will be willing to vote tactically at all. For unless they are willing to do so then at the moment Mr Johnson would seem to be on course to take the UK out of the EU by January 31.

John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University and senior research fellow, NatCen Social Research and The UK in a Changing Europe


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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby The Prof » 04 Nov 2019, 10:09

Not the best article to start the week with :(

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 04 Nov 2019, 10:46

Deebank wrote:Apparently Labour is clawing back some votes from the LDs. All well and good but the remain bloc (as I will call it) need to take votes from remain tories - they need to start shifting that 50:50 split.


I see the LibDems are up to their old tricks putting out leaflets claiming they are the main challengers to the Tories in seats where they came a distant third with single digit vote % at the last GE or even seats that Labour hold bizarrely enough

Swinson was brought up on it at the weekend and turned red on telly and blustered her way through it

She is a pretty awful politician, both in terms of personal ethics and actually being any good at it
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby The Prof » 04 Nov 2019, 10:54

She's dreadful.
I think the question used in the graph was something like "if it was a straight battle between Lib dems and Tories, which way would you vote". and still 10% voted Labour!

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Powehi » 04 Nov 2019, 11:20

The Prof wrote:

She's dreadful.


I think the question used in the graph was something like "if it was a straight battle between Lib dems and Tories, which way would you vote". and still 10% voted Labour!



Did anyone see her get forensically dismembered by Sir Brillo of Pad about her absurd claim she was going to be "Britain's Next PM" last Wednesday? Well worth checking out



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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby The Prof » 04 Nov 2019, 11:48

It wasn't even a tough interview really.

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Polishgirl » 04 Nov 2019, 14:16

Copehead wrote:
Polishgirl wrote:I think we’re absolutely fucked. Labour will never do well with JC at the helm; I’m a Labour voter who admires many of his principles but doubts his ability to win new Labour supporters. I suspect the vast majority of his fans would vote Labour anyway.

The Conservatives (* spit *) will do well enough to get the majority that they need.

It will be my third election as a counting assistant, but my first on an actual general election. Exeter is a safe Labour seat - majority of 16k + last time round. So- hopefully- that vote will hold fairly well, but it will be interesting to see what happens to the vote overall. I, unfortunately, live in am equally safe Tory seat.


You doubt his ability to win new Labour voters despite him doing just that to the une of millions of votes in 2017

That’s interesting

It tells us a lot about the narrative we are fed that often has no basis in objective reality


I’d love to be proved wrong, so am shuddering with anticipation of Corbyn and his Labour Party sweeping all opposition aside like Gabriel and all the archangels blasting through heaven with celestial rockets up their sacred backsides.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Diamond Dog » 04 Nov 2019, 19:22

Powehi wrote:
The Prof wrote:

She's dreadful.


I think the question used in the graph was something like "if it was a straight battle between Lib dems and Tories, which way would you vote". and still 10% voted Labour!



Did anyone see her get forensically dismembered by Sir Brillo of Pad about her absurd claim she was going to be "Britain's Next PM" last Wednesday? Well worth checking out




Good grief. She obviously did not understand the difference between an economic contraction and a growing economy , but slower than under other scenarios.

And as for her ridiculous claim that she will campaign for a second referendum but will not work with the one person who may be able to give her exactly that - Corbyn- is so ridiculous it's not worthy of discussion.

What an appalling politician.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Positive Passion » 04 Nov 2019, 19:45

Diamond Dog wrote:
Powehi wrote:
The Prof wrote:

She's dreadful.


I think the question used in the graph was something like "if it was a straight battle between Lib dems and Tories, which way would you vote". and still 10% voted Labour!



Did anyone see her get forensically dismembered by Sir Brillo of Pad about her absurd claim she was going to be "Britain's Next PM" last Wednesday? Well worth checking out




Good grief. She obviously did not understand the difference between an economic contraction and a growing economy , but slower than under other scenarios.

And as for her ridiculous claim that she will campaign for a second referendum but will not work with the one person who may be able to give her exactly that - Corbyn- is so ridiculous it's not worthy of discussion.

What an appalling politician.


That pronouncement of hers - about not allowing Corbyn to become PM - is what has allowed Johnson to continue in power despite his utterly pitiful record. It is Clegg all over again. Their "revival" after voters punished them in 2015 for colluding with Cameron is only based on their endorsement of remaining the EU - otherwise they are just Tory enablers.

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby The Prof » 04 Nov 2019, 19:48

It's all echos of Nick Clegg wanting to work with Labour, just not Gordon Brown

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby KeithPratt » 04 Nov 2019, 19:51

I'm always staggered how people think "oh I'll just vote Lib Dems" because they're not "as bad as the Tories".

They're much much worse. The Vicar of Bray in party form.

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Belle Lettre » 04 Nov 2019, 20:11

No argument with you there!
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 04 Nov 2019, 21:17

Polishgirl wrote:
Copehead wrote:
Polishgirl wrote:I think we’re absolutely fucked. Labour will never do well with JC at the helm; I’m a Labour voter who admires many of his principles but doubts his ability to win new Labour supporters. I suspect the vast majority of his fans would vote Labour anyway.

The Conservatives (* spit *) will do well enough to get the majority that they need.

It will be my third election as a counting assistant, but my first on an actual general election. Exeter is a safe Labour seat - majority of 16k + last time round. So- hopefully- that vote will hold fairly well, but it will be interesting to see what happens to the vote overall. I, unfortunately, live in am equally safe Tory seat.


You doubt his ability to win new Labour voters despite him doing just that to the une of millions of votes in 2017

That’s interesting

It tells us a lot about the narrative we are fed that often has no basis in objective reality


I’d love to be proved wrong, so am shuddering with anticipation of Corbyn and his Labour Party sweeping all opposition aside like Gabriel and all the archangels blasting through heaven with celestial rockets up their sacred backsides.


Totally with you.
But I am also pessimistic
I think 2017 was lightening and it doesn't strike twice, but I am hoping it does, and what I see on social media suggests it may.

You look at the passion and action in young people today from Greta Thunberg to someone like Slowthai and it is really inspiring and I see the same fierce determination I remember from my youth and you hope it can be translated into real change like in 1945.

But then we never overthrew Thatcher, despite our passion, until we voted for Blair, and that was really a symbolic victory because he accepted most of her venom.

I would love to be proved wrong, but if it is it will be people far younger than me who do it, my age group are just clinging to nanny and hoping to survive without realising nanny is the reason they feel so frightened.

Young people fear change far less, especially when all they can see is positives from change.

The status quo will be zero hours contract jobs, renting houses and the change that Tories want will be paid health care and monetised education.

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 04 Nov 2019, 21:19

[
Last edited by Copehead on 04 Nov 2019, 21:20, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 04 Nov 2019, 21:19

Positive Passion wrote:
Diamond Dog wrote:
Powehi wrote:
Did anyone see her get forensically dismembered by Sir Brillo of Pad about her absurd claim she was going to be "Britain's Next PM" last Wednesday? Well worth checking out




Good grief. She obviously did not understand the difference between an economic contraction and a growing economy , but slower than under other scenarios.

And as for her ridiculous claim that she will campaign for a second referendum but will not work with the one person who may be able to give her exactly that - Corbyn- is so ridiculous it's not worthy of discussion.

What an appalling politician.


That pronouncement of hers - about not allowing Corbyn to become PM - is what has allowed Johnson to continue in power despite his utterly pitiful record. It is Clegg all over again. Their "revival" after voters punished them in 2015 for colluding with Cameron is only based on their endorsement of remaining the EU - otherwise they are just Tory enablers.


[
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 04 Nov 2019, 21:25

Toby wrote:I'm always staggered how people think "oh I'll just vote Lib Dems" because they're not "as bad as the Tories".

They're much much worse. The Vicar of Bray in party form.


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Who's kidnapped Toby and hijacked his account?

Mike? I'm looking at you...
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Deebank » 06 Nov 2019, 08:32

Your lot are off to a flying start Toby.

Arf!
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby The Prof » 06 Nov 2019, 10:24

Which bit are you referring to? The Grenfell Tower comments by Rees-Mogg and the other one? The doctoring of the Kier Starter video?
Johnson' comparison to Corbyn being Stallin?
Or is there more?

after all, it's only 10:30..

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Deebank » 06 Nov 2019, 11:28

The Prof wrote:Which bit are you referring to? The Grenfell Tower comments by Rees-Mogg and the other one? The doctoring of the Kier Starter video?
Johnson' comparison to Corbyn being Stallin?
Or is there more?

after all, it's only 10:30..


What is it they said about Rees-Mogg... A thick person's idea of what a clever person should be like?

Something like that.

I started to read that Johnson quote that took up half the front page of today's Telegraph but gave up.
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