So, the upcoming UK election...

in reality, all of this has been a total load of old bollocks
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 01 Nov 2019, 09:36

Lord Rother wrote:An article in The Independent said the following:

“Corbyn should realise that the greatest gift he can give is to make way for someone else who can throw Johnson off balance. A fresh face and voice from an Emily Thornberry....”

I know Corbyn is (probably) a liability but It can’t be so bad that Emily Thornberry would improve their chances can it?


One of the most stupid and naive modern political tropes is that if someone other than Corbyn was fronting the Labour campaign then the media would coo and fawn over Labour.

This is of course drivel; they aren't interested in a bearded veggie from North London for who he is they are interested in stopping the political program he has instigated.

Put someone else in charge and they would get the same shit day after, and no one who wanted to return to the pro-austerity shit-baggery of the centrists is ever going to get within a country mile of the Labour leadership.

The idea that this campaign fronted by Keir Starmer would be a winner is ignoring the fact that the Daily Mail and the BBC would be leading every day with every single decision he ever made as DPP that the Daily Mail didn't like, which would be just about every single one because no paedos got the rope.

As I said stupid and naive.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 01 Nov 2019, 09:41

Diamond Dog wrote:A few worried Tories on this thread, aren't there? :)


You can tell they aren't confident.

They know Johnson is a cesspit of a human being

They know Corbyn is a decent man and a fantastic campaigner.

And they don't want an end to austerity, an un-privatised NHS and a second referendum for some reason.

So they will cling to nanny despite nanny having spent the last decade bending them over and fucking them up the arse every bed time.

There is no more pitiful sight in politics as someone on average wages who votes Tory.

Still they will be voting for tax cuts and more moolah for me, so I will thank them all when Johnson wins and sets about dismantling the final few things that make their lives survivable on their paltry wages :)
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 01 Nov 2019, 09:45

Lord Rother wrote:I should imagine the threat of Corbyn, Thornberry and Abbott in power would be enough to make EVERYONE worried.




There is no more pitiful sight in politics as someone on average wages who votes Tory.


Exhibit A
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby The Prof » 01 Nov 2019, 12:17

I know that Facebook generally prioritises content that you generally agree with - and you usually choose FB friends that are similar to you politically but it seems every second post since the election announcement has been pro-Corbyn meme or article and an anti-Johnson meme or article.

Don't get me wrong, I love it but I'm just a bit wary of thinking this election is going to be a walkover cos without any kind of balance it feels like that at the moment.

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Deebank » 01 Nov 2019, 13:01

The Prof wrote:I know that Facebook generally prioritises content that you generally agree with - and you usually choose FB friends that are similar to you politically but it seems every second post since the election announcement has been pro-Corbyn meme or article and an anti-Johnson meme or article.

Don't get me wrong, I love it but I'm just a bit wary of thinking this election is going to be a walkover cos without any kind of balance it feels like that at the moment.



But you balance that with the Beeb and the MSM which has consistently given Johnson an easy ride (to put it mildly, Jenifer Acuri anyone?) then you start to get a bit of balance I suppose.

Of course we don't trust poling but it does seem to reflect what you can see in the country, ie that Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid & Greens roughly equal Tories and Farage. ie, no real change.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 01 Nov 2019, 13:48

The Prof wrote:I know that Facebook generally prioritises content that you generally agree with - and you usually choose FB friends that are similar to you politically but it seems every second post since the election announcement has been pro-Corbyn meme or article and an anti-Johnson meme or article.

Don't get me wrong, I love it but I'm just a bit wary of thinking this election is going to be a walkover cos without any kind of balance it feels like that at the moment.


I haven't watched the BBC news or political output for years now.

We all live in our own political bubbles made by the social media choices we make, even Jimbo!

But the idea that Johnson is a loved political character is so obviously wide of the mark as to be risible.

As I said above; he seems to be booed everywhere he goes and Corbyn cheered but the narrative is that polls show he is far more popular.

I think then polls are bullshit due too their methodology, but I do think the press and papers have done such a number on Corbyn that he is going to struggle to get a majority, that seems almost impossible.

But it really does depend on turnout. If the under 40s turn out in as large a numbers as the over 60s then the Tories are toast now and for a generation or more.

Even a craven media won't be able to change that especially as practically no one under 40 reads a newspaper or trusts the BBC news anymore.

Should be very interesting.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 01 Nov 2019, 14:02

Deebank wrote:
The Prof wrote:I know that Facebook generally prioritises content that you generally agree with - and you usually choose FB friends that are similar to you politically but it seems every second post since the election announcement has been pro-Corbyn meme or article and an anti-Johnson meme or article.

Don't get me wrong, I love it but I'm just a bit wary of thinking this election is going to be a walkover cos without any kind of balance it feels like that at the moment.



But you balance that with the Beeb and the MSM which has consistently given Johnson an easy ride (to put it mildly, Jenifer Acuri anyone?) then you start to get a bit of balance I suppose.

Of course we don't trust poling but it does seem to reflect what you can see in the country, ie that Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid & Greens roughly equal Tories and Farage. ie, no real change.


It is worth remembering that the big polling companies, bar Survation, were showing 8-13% Tory leads in their last polls before the 2017 election.

They appear to have done very little to change their methodology that under-represents Labour voters since.

That is probably because they are less in the business of giving voters accurate information and more in the business to driving voters towards certain ideas.

The trouble is each time they get it so drastically wrong they lose more and more credibility, it is interesting that polls seem to be playing a far smaller part in the political discourse these days, people will highlight polls that tell them what they want to hear and then get roundly ridiculed for it.

So now we don't have anything to base our predictions on beyond basic prejudices.

But I am in a win/win situation, if Labour win I get the government I want, if the Tories win I get further tax cuts and become even richer and able to deal with the sell off of the NHS etc.

Unfortunately I have this really shitty bug in my psychological make up called empathy, it's a bummer.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Deebank » 01 Nov 2019, 14:39

interesting that Farage has had his approach rebuffed - no surprises there. He now has to stand a candidate in every constituency in ENgland, Wales and Scotland.

That pundit the BBC loves - professor of politics at Stirling Uni, I can't remember his name - reckons that TBP/ UKIP takes twice the number of votes from the tories it does from Labour. Labour, he suggests have much more to fear from the Lib Dems, but for our purposes they might just as well be on the same Remain side... until they chuck their lot in with Boris like they did last time :roll: .

So, yes, anybody's guess really...
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Lord Rother » 01 Nov 2019, 17:58

Copehead wrote:
Lord Rother wrote:I should imagine the threat of Corbyn, Thornberry and Abbott in power would be enough to make EVERYONE worried.




There is no more pitiful sight in politics as someone on average wages who votes Tory.


Exhibit A


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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Deebank » 02 Nov 2019, 13:35

Johnson’s tagline is ‘Britain deserves better’

I must agree!

You couldn’t make it up!
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby The Prof » 02 Nov 2019, 14:46

It's even stolen

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Polishgirl » 02 Nov 2019, 23:12

I think we’re absolutely fucked. Labour will never do well with JC at the helm; I’m a Labour voter who admires many of his principles but doubts his ability to win new Labour supporters. I suspect the vast majority of his fans would vote Labour anyway.

The Conservatives (* spit *) will do well enough to get the majority that they need.

It will be my third election as a counting assistant, but my first on an actual general election. Exeter is a safe Labour seat - majority of 16k + last time round. So- hopefully- that vote will hold fairly well, but it will be interesting to see what happens to the vote overall. I, unfortunately, live in am equally safe Tory seat.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Deebank » 03 Nov 2019, 08:48

Polishgirl wrote:I think we’re absolutely fucked. Labour will never do well with JC at the helm; I’m a Labour voter who admires many of his principles but doubts his ability to win new Labour supporters. I suspect the vast majority of his fans would vote Labour anyway.

The Conservatives (* spit *) will do well enough to get the majority that they need.

It will be my third election as a counting assistant, but my first on an actual general election. Exeter is a safe Labour seat - majority of 16k + last time round. So- hopefully- that vote will hold fairly well, but it will be interesting to see what happens to the vote overall. I, unfortunately, live in am equally safe Tory seat.


East Devon (next door to Exeter) is a once safe Con seat, with an insurgent (ex Green) Independent challenging - if she stands again. Could get interesting.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Powehi » 03 Nov 2019, 10:16

Deebank wrote:
Polishgirl wrote:I think we’re absolutely fucked. Labour will never do well with JC at the helm; I’m a Labour voter who admires many of his principles but doubts his ability to win new Labour supporters. I suspect the vast majority of his fans would vote Labour anyway.

The Conservatives (* spit *) will do well enough to get the majority that they need.

It will be my third election as a counting assistant, but my first on an actual general election. Exeter is a safe Labour seat - majority of 16k + last time round. So- hopefully- that vote will hold fairly well, but it will be interesting to see what happens to the vote overall. I, unfortunately, live in am equally safe Tory seat.


East Devon (next door to Exeter) is a once safe Con seat, with an insurgent (ex Green) Independent challenging - if she stands again. Could get interesting.


Given that so many people are pissed off with the two main parties and Jo Swinson has made herself so laughable with last week's risible "Britain's Next PM" leaflet, I think the Greens are going to do quite well at this election. The big question is whether they can win enough seats to get some kind of confidence and supply arrangement. Hope upon hope that the DUP gets shafted in Norn Ireland and that the loathsome Ian Blackford gets the boot for the shameful way him and his mates hounded poor old Charlie Kennedy just before he died.

Aside from that, it all seems too close to call as things currently stand. Despite claims that Farage and the fruitcake brigade will take more leave votes from Labour than from the Tories, the Brexit party is obviously going to hurt Boris badly. That said, the only way Labour seems likely to get into power is via some elaborate coalition with the Lib Dems (price: ditch Tragic Grandpa) and/or the SNP (price: a second Scottish referendum), etc.

With plenty of swerves likely to come from all sides in the coming weeks, it's shaping up to be a really fascinating election.

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Deebank » 03 Nov 2019, 10:27

Poling guru and Prof of Poltics at Strathclyde Uni (I said Stirling before) John Curtice says UKIP took twice as many votes from tories as Labour last time and that LDs are more of a problem for Corbyn.

The Labour vote was 70% remain. A switch from Labour to UKIP has been consistently over- estimated.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Powehi » 03 Nov 2019, 10:45

Deebank wrote:Poling guru and Prof of Poltics at Strathclyde Uni (I said Stirling before) John Curtice says UKIP took twice as many votes from tories as Labour last time and that LDs are more of a problem for Corbyn.

The Labour vote was 70% remain. A switch from Labour to UKIP has been consistently over- estimated.



While polls are arguably a good indicator of people''s attitudes to certain things, recent history from the UK, US and Scotland has shown the only poll that gives a clear indication of people's actual voting intentions is the one taken on the day of the election and released after the polls have closed.

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Deebank » 03 Nov 2019, 11:03

The above comments were all based on the poling at actual elections - not opinion polls.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Powehi » 03 Nov 2019, 12:11

Bet the good burghers of south Thanet are issuing a huge sigh of relief right about now.

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 03 Nov 2019, 18:16

Lord Rother wrote:
Copehead wrote:
Lord Rother wrote:I should imagine the threat of Corbyn, Thornberry and Abbott in power would be enough to make EVERYONE worried.




There is no more pitiful sight in politics as someone on average wages who votes Tory.


Exhibit A


:lol:

Wanna see my payslip?


Go on then pauper tell us how much you earn
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 03 Nov 2019, 18:18

Polishgirl wrote:I think we’re absolutely fucked. Labour will never do well with JC at the helm; I’m a Labour voter who admires many of his principles but doubts his ability to win new Labour supporters. I suspect the vast majority of his fans would vote Labour anyway.

The Conservatives (* spit *) will do well enough to get the majority that they need.

It will be my third election as a counting assistant, but my first on an actual general election. Exeter is a safe Labour seat - majority of 16k + last time round. So- hopefully- that vote will hold fairly well, but it will be interesting to see what happens to the vote overall. I, unfortunately, live in am equally safe Tory seat.


You doubt his ability to win new Labour voters despite him doing just that to the une of millions of votes in 2017

That’s interesting

It tells us a lot about the narrative we are fed that often has no basis in objective reality
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