The Modernist wrote:1. Tactical voting - As likely to damage Labour as the Conservatives. It's hard to get consensus and clarity with tactical voting, the system just doesn't facilitate it.
2. Brexit Party - I'd hoped they could do some damage to the Conservative vote but they appear to be a busted flush. Farage has had his day and is draining popularity.
3. 4 million new voters - Yeah maybe..I hope so.
I think you are right with one caveat.
Brexit has sharpened up tactical voting, Remainers know they have to vote Labour or LIbDem to stay in Europe and there are plenty of sites explaining how to do although the LibDems did poison that well rather stupidly by creating their own "Best for Britain" site which basically tells you to vote for them in places where they just about lost their deposit at the last election. I'd just go by the last completely dependable data point which was what happened in 2017 in the vast majority of cases.
But it doesn't alter the fact that Remainers have, in most constituencies, a very clear choice on how to vote if they want to avoid brexit.
That hasn't happened at any other election, there wasn't a unifying idea for a tactical vote to coalesce around.
You are correct that the Brexit Party are a busted flush, but even 5% is better than nothing considering about 80% of that will be Tory votes.
It is 4.4 million new voters on the roll since September and over 2/3 under 34s
That vote is over 60% Labour even on the polls we don't trust, that could be a game changer.
Of course the main reason that the polls in 2017 were so far out was that they underestimated turnout in the young massively, and they are doing the same again, but I don't think 3 million young people register to vote to then not bother, we'll see who called that one right.
The final ray of hope is that the Tories own the press and the BBC but most people no longer get their news from the newspapers and viewing figures for BBC news have gone off a cliff. Labour have a formidable online presence and an army of volunteers who will knock doors in marginals between now and the 12th.
The Tories have practically zero presence on the ground because they have practically no membership capable of perambulation without aid
Don't underestimate how important that sort of contact is to a lot of people
So yeah, Labour are almost certainly going to lose, possibly pretty badly, but there are reasons not to drink bleach just yet.