So, the upcoming UK election...

in reality, all of this has been a total load of old bollocks
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Deebank » 28 Nov 2019, 18:01

The Modernist wrote:
The Prof wrote:It doesn't seem to matter.

Whatever Johnson says or does, no matter how vile it its.... 43% of the country think.. "This is the guy for me".

68 seat majority prediction. Depressing.

I need Copehead to give me some hope to cling on to.


There's very little hope John.
Maybe the Tories will make some almighty gaffe or get immersed in some scandal within the next 12 days. That's about the only thing that could see a non-Tory government. It's a very slim hope though.


You think that would make any difference?
Johnson could stand in the middle of Oxford Street shooting down pedestrians* and the media would still think it was all just dear old Bozza up to his tricks!

Johnson is a fucking walking scandal, no one gives a fucking hoot!

:x

Funnily enough though the 'man in the street' seems to think he's a cunt but it doesn't matter because if he's a leaver he'll vote for him anyway.

There are three glimmers of hope: The 4.4 million newly registered voters; the potential of tactical voting and The Brexit Party. Their combined effect might just do some damage.

(*with apologies to D Trump)
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby soundchaser » 28 Nov 2019, 18:28

So we’re going to get Thatcherism all over again? The mood in the country seems to want it.

No credible opposition...just like then. What a treat we’re all in for.

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby The Modernist » 28 Nov 2019, 18:32

1. Tactical voting - As likely to damage Labour as the Conservatives. It's hard to get consensus and clarity with tactical voting, the system just doesn't facilitate it.
2. Brexit Party - I'd hoped they could do some damage to the Conservative vote but they appear to be a busted flush. Farage has had his day and is draining popularity.
3. 4 million new voters - Yeah maybe..I hope so.

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Belle Lettre » 28 Nov 2019, 19:09

A Guardian commenter earlier:

If Johnson wins a majority based on the current campaign, a distinct lack of policy and even more market lack of scrutiny, I'll resign myself to people getting what they deserve. There can be no complaints about the subsequent decline of the NHS, increased poverty, reduced social security, as well as the devastating impact of Brexit etc.

I know it's not the most caring outlook, but I'm slightly fed up with a gullible electorate swallowing the constant stream of Tory warm diarrhoea.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Deebank » 28 Nov 2019, 20:08

Belle Lettre wrote:A Guardian commenter earlier:

If Johnson wins a majority based on the current campaign, a distinct lack of policy and even more market lack of scrutiny, I'll resign myself to people getting what they deserve. There can be no complaints about the subsequent decline of the NHS, increased poverty, reduced social security, as well as the devastating impact of Brexit etc.

I know it's not the most caring outlook, but I'm slightly fed up with a gullible electorate swallowing the constant stream of Tory warm diarrhoea.


Are you sure that wasn’t Copehead? He posts on there you know. Nowhere is safe!
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Belle Lettre » 28 Nov 2019, 20:25

Could be..
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Samoan » 28 Nov 2019, 20:30

soundchaser wrote: The actual song was pretty good, if you overlook the singing.

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby KeithPratt » 28 Nov 2019, 20:47

Tactical voting is like Remain. There is no viable figurehead or consensus about it, plus one has to take onboard that you might end up getting an absolute bell-end for an MP if you do just because you don't want a Tory in power. I don't think it really has any significant traction because the people wanting it to work are too diverse in their needs and wants.

I still think it's too close to call, but there does seem to have been a swing in the last few days towards a cushioned victory for Johnson. Corbyn has not had a good week and Johnson has the essential ability to shrug off media criticism. Maybe that's because the right-wing media are mostly for him, but hell, what are you going to do. If it was the other way, I'm sure none of you would be complaining whatsoever.

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Positive Passion » 28 Nov 2019, 21:04

KeithPratt wrote: If it was the other way, I'm sure none of you would be complaining whatsoever.


Of course not. But that's because it's the correct position. In the same way I complain about people lying, but don't complain about people telling the truth. I complain about unfairness, but not about fairness.

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby St Jeemo the Humourless » 28 Nov 2019, 21:54

KeithPratt wrote:has to take onboard that you might end up getting an absolute bell-end for an MP.


If it was the other way, I'm sure none of you would be complaining whatsoever.


Rather a bell-end mp than a Tory bell-end PM.


If it was the other way would you be complaining?
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby KeithPratt » 28 Nov 2019, 22:16

Of course, all Tories are bell-ends aren't they.

It's good to see political myopia still very much entrenched in BCB land.

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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 28 Nov 2019, 22:22

The Modernist wrote:
Copehead wrote:Perhaps you are unaware that Dianne Abbot is a black lady, if so I withdraw the "race card", if you are aware of that it what you wrote looks pretty racist.


I suspect my politics are rather different to LR's but this is complete bollocks and you throw around the racist accusation far too easily and lightly. It shouldn't just be deployed as a tactic to win an argument or smear an opponent. There was nothing in LR's Abbot comment that was remotely suggestive of racism. She gets singled out by people because she's gaffe prone. Are you saying no black politician should ever be singled out for criticism? I'll bare that in mind the next time you talk about James Cleverly.


You don't think it strange that the first person he chose when he decided to ridicule a Labour politician for no apparent reason was their most prominent Black, Female MP?

Fair enough, I think it says something about the way he thinks, it may not be conscious but it is pretty obvious.

If I single out James Cleverly it will be for something he has said or done not just because he is a Black man.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 28 Nov 2019, 22:28

The Prof wrote:It doesn't seem to matter.

Whatever Johnson says or does, no matter how vile it its.... 43% of the country think.. "This is the guy for me".

68 seat majority prediction. Depressing.

I need Copehead to give me some hope to cling on to.


The polls are #fakenews man

Keep drinking the Corbyn cult Kool Aid

The tiny sliver of hope I cling to is that if the Tories are returned they will cut my taxes and make me richer, it may not be much to cling to but it is something.

If they get in and dump the UK out of the EU then Scotland a possibly Wales and Norn Iron will be leaving the UK.

If that happens I am seriously thinking about upping sticks and claiming asylum because England on its own will become a depressing nationalist shit hole of country clinging to the USA's coat tails.

It would be worth a whopping tax bill to live in a decent country like an independent Scotland or Wales.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 28 Nov 2019, 22:34

Belle Lettre wrote:But you see how he puts people off..that's our situation in microcosm.


MY Dear Belle I am not standing for election, I am barely advocating for Labour and the idea that Rother needs me to put him off voting for the Labour Party is surely wide of the mark.

The country is hopelessly divided the battle lines are drawn the idea that there are an army of undecideds in the middle weighing up party manifestos and judging the behaviour of twats on the internet before they cast their precious votes is quaint but probably not reality these days.

All I am doing is making myself anxious and angry for no good reason which is why I left this place in the first place.

Perhaps because all in my life is sweetness and light I need somewhere to come and feel angry and full of spleen.

Don't worry once the election is over, Labour have lost and I've called Mike a cunt I'll fuck off again.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 28 Nov 2019, 22:39

The Modernist wrote:
The Prof wrote:It doesn't seem to matter.

Whatever Johnson says or does, no matter how vile it its.... 43% of the country think.. "This is the guy for me".

68 seat majority prediction. Depressing.

I need Copehead to give me some hope to cling on to.


There's very little hope John.
Maybe the Tories will make some almighty gaffe or get immersed in some scandal within the next 12 days. That's about the only thing that could see a non-Tory government. It's a very slim hope though.


This is all dependent on the polls being correct.

I am pretty certain they are as correct as they were in 2017, when poll leads like this turned out to mean the party's were basically neck and neck.

That being the case and the polling companies knowing this the only reason for punting out these polls is to demoralise the Labour vote.

Cummings let the cat out of the bag the other night when he blogged that private polling was far closer

We'll see if the polls are correct this time on the 13th, if they aren't they will shrug and move on having done their job in demoralising people who want a change in this country.

And next time round it will no doubt all happen again, as Rorsharch shows there is plausible deniability in all of this, it is a struggle accurately sampling the population these days and weighting is fraught with preconceptions, but it seems all the big business polling companies struggle in exactly the same direction in overestimating the Tory vote, funny that.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Belle Lettre » 28 Nov 2019, 22:45

I hope you had a good birthday :)
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 28 Nov 2019, 22:45

soundchaser wrote:So we’re going to get Thatcherism all over again? The mood in the country seems to want it.


If that country is England.

No credible opposition...just like then. What a treat we’re all in for.


The Labour opposition is perfectly credible if you don't sub-contract your thought processes to the right wing media and actually read their policies and costing yourself.

It is frightening ending the 40 year experiment in neo-liberalism, but it has obviously failed.

Well it hasn't failed for the wealthy, but for the majority it has lead to impoverishment, the rise of the precariate or at best stagnation in wages.

The young can see this because they are up the sharp end of Boomer greed and draw bridge raising, just needs enough other people to realise letting it go will be less painful than allowing it continue.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 28 Nov 2019, 22:52

Belle Lettre wrote:I hope you had a good birthday :)


Spiffing I went to Rovi, Yottam Ottolenghi's top end place, with my partner Ceri, it was fabulous.

I also went to see Stewart Lee to agree the fuck out of everything he said and Tinariwen. Not all on the same day :?

Before Tinariwen I took myself to the Black Axe Mangal for lamb offal flat bread and prune and foie gras donuts, because that's how I roll these days spending time in London.

But before Stweart Lee I had to collect a mate from hospital and drive for 3 hours across rush hour London to get him home while he babbled as he was high on opiates and I missed my planned supper. :x

Deebank bought me the new Cerys Matthews' cook book and I cooked her vegetable tagine out of it at the end of my birthday week, although I did add Ras al Hanout to her recipe as I thought it was under spiced.

So all in all a good one, did someone start a happy birthday thread for me? I should go back and check :?
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 28 Nov 2019, 23:07

The Modernist wrote:1. Tactical voting - As likely to damage Labour as the Conservatives. It's hard to get consensus and clarity with tactical voting, the system just doesn't facilitate it.
2. Brexit Party - I'd hoped they could do some damage to the Conservative vote but they appear to be a busted flush. Farage has had his day and is draining popularity.
3. 4 million new voters - Yeah maybe..I hope so.


I think you are right with one caveat.

Brexit has sharpened up tactical voting, Remainers know they have to vote Labour or LIbDem to stay in Europe and there are plenty of sites explaining how to do although the LibDems did poison that well rather stupidly by creating their own "Best for Britain" site which basically tells you to vote for them in places where they just about lost their deposit at the last election. I'd just go by the last completely dependable data point which was what happened in 2017 in the vast majority of cases.

But it doesn't alter the fact that Remainers have, in most constituencies, a very clear choice on how to vote if they want to avoid brexit.

That hasn't happened at any other election, there wasn't a unifying idea for a tactical vote to coalesce around.

You are correct that the Brexit Party are a busted flush, but even 5% is better than nothing considering about 80% of that will be Tory votes.

It is 4.4 million new voters on the roll since September and over 2/3 under 34s

That vote is over 60% Labour even on the polls we don't trust, that could be a game changer.

Of course the main reason that the polls in 2017 were so far out was that they underestimated turnout in the young massively, and they are doing the same again, but I don't think 3 million young people register to vote to then not bother, we'll see who called that one right.

The final ray of hope is that the Tories own the press and the BBC but most people no longer get their news from the newspapers and viewing figures for BBC news have gone off a cliff. Labour have a formidable online presence and an army of volunteers who will knock doors in marginals between now and the 12th.

The Tories have practically zero presence on the ground because they have practically no membership capable of perambulation without aid :)

Don't underestimate how important that sort of contact is to a lot of people

So yeah, Labour are almost certainly going to lose, possibly pretty badly, but there are reasons not to drink bleach just yet.
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Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Copehead » 28 Nov 2019, 23:10

Belle Lettre wrote:Could be..


Wasn't me but I read it too on the Grauniad live blog.

It is tempting to feel that way but you have to remember that there will be millions who didn't vote to impoverish themselves or sell off the NHS piecemeal to the yanks and they will suffer too.

I think I came on like that over here after Miliband's evisceration in 2015, but some one pointed that out to me and it is an undeniable point.

Twats will get it but so will people who didn't vote Tory.
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