So, the upcoming UK election...

in reality, all of this has been a total load of old bollocks
Powehi
Posts: 1159
Joined: 25 Aug 2016, 17:12

So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Powehi » 29 Oct 2019, 11:42

Thoughts?

Predictions?

Will it manage to somehow resolve the exit part of Brexit?

Who'll be left with a parliamentary seat to sit in on Friday 13?*

* Assuming it doesn't take place on Monday 9, Tuesday 10 or Weds 11...

User avatar
The Prof
Trading coffee in Abyssinia
Posts: 45616
Joined: 16 Jul 2003, 18:32
Location: A Metropolis of Discontent

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby The Prof » 29 Oct 2019, 11:59

It's there for Johnson to lose, I think.

I believe May was higher in the polls than the Tories are now but she ran a terrible campaign and was a terrible campaigner. She got in by a whisker.

If Corbyn gains as much ground as he did last time then he's in with a good chance but it will be nothing like as easy.

User avatar
Belle Lettre
Éminence grise
Posts: 15922
Joined: 09 Oct 2008, 07:16
Location: Antiterra

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Belle Lettre » 29 Oct 2019, 12:01

Doomed
Nikki Gradual wrote:
Get a fucking grip you narcissistic cretins.

Powehi
Posts: 1159
Joined: 25 Aug 2016, 17:12

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Powehi » 29 Oct 2019, 12:17

While he's a self-centred oaf, Johnson is a formidable campaigner. Be interesting to see whether the rumours that he might cut and and run for a safer seat in Kent are true. As the stakes are so high, can't really see it myself.

Given the mess he and his mates have made of Labour, all the bowls of porridge in the world aren't going to give Tragic Grandpa any realistic chance of uniting his hopelessly fractured party and winning power.

Be interesting to see what tactics Farage an the Lib Dems decide to adopt.

The only definite "majority" I can see right now is that the bulk of the MPs who've switched sides - some of them more than once - these last few months are going to be getting pre-Xmas P45s.

Hope the awful bigots who make up the DUP and the SNP's appalling Ian Blackford are among those who get their marching orders at the same time.

Think that anyone who believes that an election might just resolve the exit bit of Brexit is going to be in for a nasty shock the day after we finally come out. It'll only be after our freshly emasculated country has to start negotiating trade deals with the likes of not only the EU, but the sharks in China and the US that the true horror of what Cameron did in 2016 will sink home.
Last edited by Powehi on 29 Oct 2019, 15:30, edited 2 times in total.

Powehi
Posts: 1159
Joined: 25 Aug 2016, 17:12

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Powehi » 29 Oct 2019, 12:17

sorry DP

User avatar
Minnie the Minx
funky thigh collector
Posts: 30751
Joined: 29 Dec 2006, 16:00
Location: In the naughty North and in the sexy South

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Minnie the Minx » 29 Oct 2019, 13:40

I don’t have any thoughts or predictions. The whole thing scares me to death. I’ve lost touch with anything predictable, nothing feels even slightly predictable anymore, like we’re living in Bizarro world.
You come at the Queen, you best not miss.

Dr Markus wrote:
Someone in your line of work usually as their own man cave aka the shed we're they can potter around fixing stuff or something don't they?

User avatar
Deebank
Resonator
Posts: 23784
Joined: 10 Oct 2003, 13:47
Location: In a beautiful place out in the country

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Deebank » 29 Oct 2019, 15:56

If the opposition parties can get resident foreign nationals and 16 and 17 year olds enfranchised that would be a positive development.
I've been talking about writing a book - 25 years of TEFL - for a few years now. I've got it in me.

Paid anghofio fod dy galon yn y chwyldro

User avatar
Rorschach
Posts: 1936
Joined: 02 Jun 2008, 12:43

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Rorschach » 29 Oct 2019, 16:10

Deebank wrote:If the opposition parties can get resident foreign nationals and 16 and 17 year olds enfranchised that would be a positive development.


No chance.

I doubt it'll even be allowed for debate.
Bugger off.

User avatar
Deebank
Resonator
Posts: 23784
Joined: 10 Oct 2003, 13:47
Location: In a beautiful place out in the country

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Deebank » 29 Oct 2019, 16:14

This apparent conversation with (Classic) Dom Cummings is doing the rounds on Twitter:

Me: Ready for the campaign Mr Cummings?
DC: We’re not going to have one.
Me: Really?
DC: They’ll vote for EU citizens and we’ll have to pull it.
I've been talking about writing a book - 25 years of TEFL - for a few years now. I've got it in me.

Paid anghofio fod dy galon yn y chwyldro

Powehi
Posts: 1159
Joined: 25 Aug 2016, 17:12

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Powehi » 29 Oct 2019, 16:16

Deebank wrote:This apparent conversation with (Classic) Dom Cummings is doing the rounds on Twitter:

Me: Ready for the campaign Mr Cummings?
DC: We’re not going to have one.
Me: Really?
DC: They’ll vote for EU citizens and we’ll have to pull it.



Who came up with that zinger? Your brother?

User avatar
The Prof
Trading coffee in Abyssinia
Posts: 45616
Joined: 16 Jul 2003, 18:32
Location: A Metropolis of Discontent

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby The Prof » 29 Oct 2019, 16:20

Rorschach wrote:
Deebank wrote:If the opposition parties can get resident foreign nationals and 16 and 17 year olds enfranchised that would be a positive development.


No chance.

I doubt it'll even be allowed for debate.


They reckon it'll take 12 months at least to get all the infrastructure ready for 16-17 year olds to vote.

User avatar
Deebank
Resonator
Posts: 23784
Joined: 10 Oct 2003, 13:47
Location: In a beautiful place out in the country

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Deebank » 29 Oct 2019, 16:28

Powehi wrote:
Deebank wrote:This apparent conversation with (Classic) Dom Cummings is doing the rounds on Twitter:

Me: Ready for the campaign Mr Cummings?
DC: We’re not going to have one.
Me: Really?
DC: They’ll vote for EU citizens and we’ll have to pull it.



Who came up with that zinger? Your brother?


No mate, Nick Berry!

:lol:

Did I say Nick Berry...?

Tsk, I meant Joe Pike political correspondent, for ITV News. :roll: Silly me.
Last edited by Deebank on 29 Oct 2019, 17:12, edited 1 time in total.
I've been talking about writing a book - 25 years of TEFL - for a few years now. I've got it in me.

Paid anghofio fod dy galon yn y chwyldro

User avatar
The Prof
Trading coffee in Abyssinia
Posts: 45616
Joined: 16 Jul 2003, 18:32
Location: A Metropolis of Discontent

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby The Prof » 29 Oct 2019, 17:00

..and Johnson will take his bat and ball home and scrap the election if it happenes

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 1572363275

User avatar
KeithPratt
Arsehole all Erect
Posts: 23735
Joined: 28 Jul 2003, 23:13
Contact:

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby KeithPratt » 30 Oct 2019, 08:30

I can't see Corbyn doing what he did in 2017. Mainly because he faces an opponent that has a perception across the country that is far more favourable than May ever was. Whilst one can't believe what polls say in their entirety, Johnson leads Corbyn as a more favourable PM across all age spectrums, even at 18 to 24.

In 2017 Corbyn was still in a bit of a honeymoon even though the disaster of his leadership was becoming apparent slowly but surely. Two years on and he's really not improved matters on any front - anti-semitism, Brexit, defections etc. The Liberal Democrats have become the party of Remain (even if that's a complete waste of time).

He really does have it all to do in terms of staving off disaster for the Labour party, given that the Brexit Party are ready to do a deal with the Tories (whether the latter will accept it is another matter) in Labour heartlands.

And what is worse is that I feel Corbyn will still be there doggedly after the election, ready to hand over the leadership of the party to one of his Maoist clique - content that he's driven the party into the ground in terms of shedding any New Labour remnants. Perhaps for him it's job done - they can continue to rebuild the party in their vision.

And yet, and yet, he is a great campaigner. It's what he does best (there is little else) and he is in his element. So maybe he'll perform better than expected (again) and give Johnson a bloody nose.

The Guardian suggests Johnson might win a 58 seat majority. I don't think it'll be that much - perhaps closer to 10 to 15 seats at most - but he does have the ability to shrug off issues, slights and perceptions in a way that few politicians can. He has charisma and humour and most crucially, he has managed to frame the battle of Brexit as him and against a truculent and problematic Parliament.

Powehi
Posts: 1159
Joined: 25 Aug 2016, 17:12

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Powehi » 30 Oct 2019, 09:21

Given all the publicity Greta Thunberg has got this year and the fact that most young people won't be phazed by the Extinction Rebellion demos of recent weeks, I think the Greens will manage to pick up a few seats in university towns.

The big question for Johnson is whether his charisma and People vs Parliament schtick will be sufficient to persuade the Labour leave voters he needs to win to overturn the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory? With loads of Tory MPs in the south east and Scotland set to lose their seats, he badly needs to win big in the Midlands and North.

Farage is still ominously silent at this point.

User avatar
The Prof
Trading coffee in Abyssinia
Posts: 45616
Joined: 16 Jul 2003, 18:32
Location: A Metropolis of Discontent

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby The Prof » 30 Oct 2019, 10:52

Polster John Curtice is suggesting that upto 100 seats may go to non-Labour and non-Tory MPs making pacts and deals necessary in a post-election shakeup.

Powehi
Posts: 1159
Joined: 25 Aug 2016, 17:12

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Powehi » 30 Oct 2019, 11:22

The Prof wrote:Polster John Curtice is suggesting that upto 100 seats may go to non-Labour and non-Tory MPs making pacts and deals necessary in a post-election shakeup.


I can see that.

The obvious beneficiaries would seem to be the Greens and Lib Dems plus the SNP; and - dragging up the rear rather less palatably - Farage and his mob.

Would be great to see the DUP get no votes and no seats, but alas the word 'no' just isn't in their nature.

User avatar
St Jeemo the Humourless
Posts: 21103
Joined: 21 Jul 2003, 23:17
Location: ????

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby St Jeemo the Humourless » 30 Oct 2019, 11:53

Powehi wrote:
Would be great to see the DUP get no votes and no seats, but alas the word 'no' just isn't in their nature.


Actually the word "NO" is a perfect summation of their stance on just about everything. Shouted till their faces go purple.
Image So Long Kid, Take A Bow.

User avatar
Diamond Dog
"Self Quoter" Extraordinaire.
Posts: 68521
Joined: 16 Jul 2003, 21:04
Location: High On Poachers Hill

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Diamond Dog » 30 Oct 2019, 18:27

Toby wrote: He (Johnson) has charisma and humour and most crucially, he has managed to frame the battle of Brexit as him and against a truculent and problematic Parliament.


Actually I think he may well have framed his own resignation letter with the :

"We are coming out the EU on October 31st no matter what" pledge back on June 25th.

Or maybe a month later when, outside Number 10 he said "We are going to fulfil the repeated promises of Parliament to the people and come out of the EU on 31 October, no ifs or buts’.

Or maybe on September 2nd when he stated "There will be no further pointless delay.’

Maybe the famous quote of September 5th may jog a few memories "I would rather be dead in a ditch than delay Britain’s departure."

September 6th "‘They just passed a law that would force me to beg Brussels for an extension to the Brexit deadline. ‘This is something I will never do.’

September 13th in Holland "UK will leave whatever happens on Halloween" adding that he ‘won’t be deterred by anybody’ from getting the task done.

On the BBC September 16th "We’re going to come out on 31 October and it’s vital that people understand that the UK will not extend. We won’t go on remaining in the EU beyond October."

October 19th (that's just over a week ago) "I will not negotiate a delay with the EU and neither does the law compel me to do so.’

I hope/believe the British public have a slightly longer memory than you and will vote accordingly.

Your other usual nonsense about Maoism and all the usual guff aren't really worthy of response - especially when in comparison to a proven and habitual liar who has been the most ineffective Prime Minister in history (factually).
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.
If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything.
When I was a kid, I inhaled. Frequently. That was the point.

User avatar
Lord Rother
Posts: 6907
Joined: 11 Feb 2009, 11:54
Location: breaking the legs of the bastard that got me framed

Re: So, the upcoming UK election...

Postby Lord Rother » 30 Oct 2019, 19:17

I think people with intelligence knew what Johnson was doing. His failed “promises” won’t harm him much if at all.

We shall see.