The next UK Prime minister

in reality, all of this has been a total load of old bollocks
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The Prof
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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby The Prof » 07 Sep 2019, 14:41

Corbyn then has to deal with Brexit. Even though everything seems to be falling in his favour now, I'm not sure it wouldn't break him too.

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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Powehi » 07 Sep 2019, 15:30

Deebank wrote:If Johnson resigns - his only route to an early election now - JC gets to form the next government.

Of course there is the question of how much rebel alliance support he can call upon, but they may be willing to offer conditional short term support to avoid crashing out.

What other scenarios are there?



From today's Times

BREXIT CRISIS | ANALYSIS
Prime minister’s potential escape routes from Brexit crisis
Henry Zeffman
September 7 2019, 12:01am,
The Times


Jeremy Corbyn

In one convoluted scenario being discussed, Boris Johnson could try to install Jeremy Corbyn as prime minister so the Labour leader would be the one who has to seek the extension

Ignore the law

During his Tory leadership campaign he described delivering Brexit by October 31 as “do or die”, and arguably his rhetoric has hardened since then. It is hard to see how that can be reconciled with requesting a third Brexit delay. Some would like him simply to disobey the legislation, but refusing to follow the law would precipitate an even bigger split in his party. There are Conservative MPs strongly opposed to another Article 50 extension who nevertheless fear the medium and long-term consequences of the government failing to uphold the rule of law.

Resign

If the prime minister is bound by law to ask for a Brexit delay by October 19, one solution for Mr Johnson is to no longer be prime minister. An idea being discussed in Westminster would have him resign and advise the Queen to appoint Jeremy Corbyn, who would agree the extension with the EU. The Tories would then propose and probably win a motion of no confidence, triggering a general election, which Mr Corbyn would fight as prime minister. However, it is not clear that the Queen would necessarily appoint Mr Corbyn if MPs indicated that another candidate was better placed to command a majority. This is something that cannot be ruled out, given how many of the Tories expelled this week dislike the prospect of Mr Corbyn in Downing Street. The prime minister can give an opinion, but he does not pick his successor. It would also be peculiar for someone who won a leadership election at least partly on the basis that he was the best-placed to keep Mr Corbyn from No 10 to then install Mr Corbyn as prime minister. In one version of this scenario Mr Johnson could resign as an individual, rather than on behalf of his government, and be replaced by a prime minister from his cabinet, such as Sajid Javid, who is willing to seek an extension. Mr Johnson would still fight a subsequent election as the Tory leader, while having fulfilled his pledge not to seek an extension.

Extend Article 50 and then hold an election

Mr Johnson could admit that he cannot fulfil his pledge to leave on October 31. He would spend the following weeks behaving as if he is in a general election, making speeches on health, crime and education spending. There would then be an election towards the end of the year, though by failing to deliver Brexit on October 31 Mr Johnson would risk boosting the Brexit Party’s appeal.


Change strategy

Mr Johnson could go to Brussels seeking a deal that might clear the Commons. That would mean reneging on his demand to excise the Irish backstop, but he might secure the votes of large numbers of Labour MPs, which Mrs May always hoped for but could never achieve.

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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Powehi » 07 Sep 2019, 15:35

The Prof wrote:Corbyn then has to deal with Brexit. Even though everything seems to be falling in his favour now, I'm not sure it wouldn't break him too.


I think you've been spending too much time sniffing the chemicals in your dark room, Prof.

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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby The Prof » 07 Sep 2019, 15:43

What's wrong with that observation?

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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Powehi » 07 Sep 2019, 16:55

The Prof wrote:What's wrong with that observation?


The idea that a featherweight like Corbyn who had never held so much as a shadow cabinet post before becoming Labour leader in 2015 is somehow going to best the hardened political heavyweights who head up the EU is laughable. He can't even control his own party as John McDonnell's recent remarks about "putting him in a taxi to Buck House" testify.

Of course before Jezza can "deal with Brexit", he first has to get elected. Given that the country now seems to be divided more on Leave/Remain than traditional Labour/Tory lines, there is an awful lot of anger against the two main parties out there. In the current climate, it is hard to see any party with no coherent Brexit policy -never mind one led by Jeremy Corbyn - getting a working majority.

Jezza's ingrained Euroscepticism certainly isn't going to win him any brownie points with Remain voters on either side of the increasingly outmoded Lab/Tory divide. Heaving done virtually fuck all to campaign for Remain in 2016, he has sat wringing his hands impotently every time he has been called on to provide any kind of decisive leadership re Brexit or any other issue ever since.

To see what an undisciplined shambles Labour has descended into under his stewardship, suggest you check out Wednesday night's Andrew Neil show and Thursday night's Question Time, both of which should still be on iPlayer.

The former had the absurd spectacle of a Labour shadow cabinet member detailing a course of action re delaying any election totally at odds with the one outlined by his deputy leader, Keir Starmer, just a few hours earlier. When pushed about what Labour's policy vis a vis Brexit might be should they actually assume power, he took a leaf out of Corbyn's book and started dithering about how the need for such a decision was still a long way off.

On Thursday, Emily Thornberry made herself look even more stupid when she was forced to admit that a future Labour government might very well end up campaigning against whatever deal it had managed to negotiate with the EU.

If you think this sort of stuff is going to cut any ice with either voters or the EU, you really should stay out of that dark rolm, Prof.

Having voted Labour at every election since February 1974, I'm one of the many former supporters who won't be backing the party until John McDonnell puts Corbyn in a cab and tells him to fuck off back to his allotment.

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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby The Prof » 07 Sep 2019, 17:03

You seem to have missed something somewhere.

Deebank's scenario was that Johnson resigns and Corbyn gets "appointed" PM. I don't know if his Brexit strategy would fare any better than a Tory one.

As far as I can see, you're agreeing the point but still arguing with me.

..and I've not been in a darkroom since about 1997

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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Powehi » 07 Sep 2019, 17:33

The Prof wrote:You seem to have missed something somewhere.

Deebank's scenario was that Johnson resigns and Corbyn gets "appointed" PM. I don't know if his Brexit strategy would fare any better than a Tory one.

As far as I can see, you're agreeing the point but still arguing with me.

..and I've not been in a darkroom since about 1997


Given your words that "everything seems to be falling into place for JC", I mistakenly thought that Deebank had floated a plausible theory rather than indulging in some never-going-to-happen-in-a-million-years wishful thinking.

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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby The Prof » 07 Sep 2019, 19:19

Wishful thinking that you've just quoted in that Times article above.

"An idea being discussed in Westminster would have him resign and advise the Queen to appoint Jeremy Corbyn, who would agree the extension with the EU"

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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Belle Lettre » 07 Sep 2019, 19:30

Powehi pays to.read the Times?
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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Powehi » 07 Sep 2019, 20:01

The Prof wrote:Wishful thinking that you've just quoted in that Times article above.

"An idea being discussed in Westminster would have him resign and advise the Queen to appoint Jeremy Corbyn, who would agree the extension with the EU"


The scenario was dismissed as being “convoluted” in the first par of the article.
Last edited by Powehi on 07 Sep 2019, 20:25, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Powehi » 07 Sep 2019, 20:11

Belle Lettre wrote:Powehi pays to.read the Times?





Why, is that not allowed?

I suppose this means I’ll have to start blanking the person who forwarded me the piece after I sent him Jonathan Freedland’s article from the Guardian I bought this morning.

On the rare occasions i do flout the rules and actually buy a copy of The Thunderer, it's purely because of TIm Shipman, whose All Out War is pretty much the only book you'll ever need to read about the 2016 referendum

What paper do you take, btw?
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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Powehi » 07 Sep 2019, 20:22

Sorry, DP

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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Belle Lettre » 07 Sep 2019, 20:26

Guardian online though half of it drives me nuts.
And Twitter and Facebook obviously :D
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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Powehi » 07 Sep 2019, 20:29

The Prof wrote:
..and I've not been in a darkroom since about 1997




Probably just as well given that you still seem to be suffering the toxic after-effects of said room's various developing fluids over 20 years later. :D

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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Powehi » 07 Sep 2019, 20:42

Belle Lettre wrote:Guardian online though half of it drives me nuts.
And Twitter and Facebook obviously :D


While used to buy the G every day, a few years back I switched to just getting it on a Saturday and then zipping through the website the rest of the week. A lot of the stuff drives me mad, too, although the sports pages are still pretty good - as are the obits. Happily, having never been able to see any point in FB or Twitter, the whole social media tidal wave has happily passed me by.

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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Positive Passion » 07 Sep 2019, 20:45

The Prof wrote:Corbyn then has to deal with Brexit. Even though everything seems to be falling in his favour now, I'm not sure it wouldn't break him too.


Sort of. The correct answer to this, of course would be for Corbyn to call a second referendum. From his point of view it would be win/win, in that another leave victory would fulfill his lifelong dream, and a remain victory solves all the problems.

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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Diamond Dog » 07 Sep 2019, 20:47

Powehi wrote:The idea that a featherweight like Corbyn who had never held so much as a shadow cabinet post before becoming Labour leader in 2015 is somehow going to best the hardened political heavyweights who head up the EU is laughable. He can't even control his own party as John McDonnell's recent remarks about "putting him in a taxi to Buck House" testify.

Of course before Jezza can "deal with Brexit", he first has to get elected. Given that the country now seems to be divided more on Leave/Remain than traditional Labour/Tory lines, there is an awful lot of anger against the two main parties out there. In the current climate, it is hard to see any party with no coherent Brexit policy -never mind one led by Jeremy Corbyn - getting a working majority.

Jezza's ingrained Euroscepticism certainly isn't going to win him any brownie points with Remain voters on either side of the increasingly outmoded Lab/Tory divide. Heaving done virtually fuck all to campaign for Remain in 2016, he has sat wringing his hands impotently every time he has been called on to provide any kind of decisive leadership re Brexit or any other issue ever since.

To see what an undisciplined shambles Labour has descended into under his stewardship, suggest you check out Wednesday night's Andrew Neil show and Thursday night's Question Time, both of which should still be on iPlayer.

The former had the absurd spectacle of a Labour shadow cabinet member detailing a course of action re delaying any election totally at odds with the one outlined by his deputy leader, Keir Starmer, just a few hours earlier. When pushed about what Labour's policy vis a vis Brexit might be should they actually assume power, he took a leaf out of Corbyn's book and started dithering about how the need for such a decision was still a long way off.

On Thursday, Emily Thornberry made herself look even more stupid when she was forced to admit that a future Labour government might very well end up campaigning against whatever deal it had managed to negotiate with the EU.

If you think this sort of stuff is going to cut any ice with either voters or the EU, you really should stay out of that dark rolm, Prof.

Having voted Labour at every election since February 1974, I'm one of the many former supporters who won't be backing the party until John McDonnell puts Corbyn in a cab and tells him to fuck off back to his allotment.


I'd say that's a major upgrade on the catastrophic fuck up the Tories have inflicted on this country the past three weeks, let alone the past three years (and further).

However - if not Corbyn - Who do you see leading this country out of the Brexit morass the Tories have got us into?
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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Lord Rother » 07 Sep 2019, 20:52

The correct answer is fuck knows.

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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Deebank » 07 Sep 2019, 21:00

On Thursday, Emily Thornberry made herself look even more stupid when she was forced to admit that a future Labour government might very well end up campaigning against whatever deal it had managed to negotiate with the EU.


Well, JC doesn't really have to negotiate a new deal because the EU have already OKed the Labour version some months (years even) ago - there's no need to play hard ball with the EU or whatever it is that tories get a stiffy about these days because Labour's version sees us leave (in legal terms) but remain very close. Of course we'd be better off just staying in, but there's a slight chance that the Labour version of leaving (if that\s what the GBP choose in a 2nd ref) will appease some of the leavers. Although that is an increasingly vain hope probably.

Either way, it's better than the tory alternative which seems to be strictly limited to crashing out.
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Re: The next UK Prime minister

Postby Deebank » 07 Sep 2019, 21:03

Positive Passion wrote:
The Prof wrote:Corbyn then has to deal with Brexit. Even though everything seems to be falling in his favour now, I'm not sure it wouldn't break him too.


Sort of. The correct answer to this, of course would be for Corbyn to call a second referendum. From his point of view it would be win/win, in that another leave victory would fulfill his lifelong dream, and a remain victory solves all the problems.



The Labour policy is to negotiate a deal and then put it to a second referendum - with remain on the ballot.

Some people think it's crazy that many Labour MPs will be campaigning against the deal they have negotiated and for remaining - I don't see that as a problem personally.
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