Brexit Countdown

in reality, all of this has been a total load of old bollocks
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Robert
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Robert » 31 Dec 2018, 21:00

Toby wrote:
Diamond Dog wrote:
caramba wrote:Haven't seen very much in the press about any EU plans in the event of the UK's refusing to pay them the notorious £39 billion should we crash out with no deal.

Anyone know if they've made any such provisions in the event of this happening?

If one of its three richest countries stop paying in, would imagine the EU is going to be every bit as fucked as the UK is in the short term. It'll be even more screwed if its wantaway members see the UK survive the initial impacts of Brexit and - unlikely as it looks right now - somehow start to do well.

Was surprised to touch bases with a couple of formerly staunch remainers who are now saying the UK should give the EU the middle finger as they've had it up to here with "Project Fear" scare stories and the EU's dismissive treatment of the UK.

What a mess Cameron has left us all to try and deal/live with.


Just because this Government Of Clowns hasn't prepared for it doesn't mean the EU hasn't. I'm sure there is a contingency. And the idea that the EU will be more adversely effected by a non payment than the UK is laughable. Can you imagine the sanctions that would be imposed immediately?


Airbus would be fucked then, plus a ton of other businesses , particularly in France that rely on us for their markets. Given that Northern France is already gunning for Macron, I really don't think it would be a wise move.

Sanctions would be absolutely disastrous for the EU.



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Robert
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Robert » 31 Dec 2018, 21:03

yomptepi wrote:
Robert wrote:
The Prof wrote:I've seen a few flippant threats by government ministers threatening to not pay.

Nothing from the EU about what would happen if the UK didn't, but i guess they will make it even more difficult than it is already going to be.


The threat is simply too stupid to respond to I’d think.


This is exactly why 17 million people want nothing to do with the arrogant cunts in Brussels.


When I said ‘stupid’ I wasn’t calling you.

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Diamond Dog
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Diamond Dog » 31 Dec 2018, 21:16

Robert wrote:
yomptepi wrote:
Robert wrote:
The threat is simply too stupid to respond to I’d think.


This is exactly why 17 million people want nothing to do with the arrogant cunts in Brussels.


When I said ‘stupid’ I wasn’t calling you.


Although it is unquestionably applicable.
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby caramba » 01 Jan 2019, 10:09

Diamond Dog wrote:
caramba wrote:Haven't seen very much in the press about any EU plans in the event of the UK's refusing to pay them the notorious £39 billion should we crash out with no deal.

Anyone know if they've made any such provisions in the event of this happening?

If one of its three richest countries stop paying in, would imagine the EU is going to be every bit as fucked as the UK is in the short term. It'll be even more screwed if its wantaway members see the UK survive the initial impacts of Brexit and - unlikely as it looks right now - somehow start to do well.

Was surprised to touch bases with a couple of formerly staunch remainers who are now saying the UK should give the EU the middle finger as they've had it up to here with "Project Fear" scare stories and the EU's dismissive treatment of the UK.

What a mess Cameron has left us all to try and deal/live with.


Just because this Government Of Clowns hasn't prepared for it doesn't mean the EU hasn't. I'm sure there is a contingency. And the idea that the EU will be more adversely effected by a non payment than the UK is laughable. Can you imagine the sanctions that would be imposed immediately?



Let's hope the EU’s contingency planning for any possible UK default was carried out with more care and attention than its colossally inept assessment of Greece's national finances before the latter's admission.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Toby » 01 Jan 2019, 10:35

Precisely. The Eurozone is not in a position to be making overly bullish economic shows of strength.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby WG Kaspar » 01 Jan 2019, 10:43

Toby wrote:Precisely. The Eurozone is not in a position to be making overly bullish economic shows of strength.


Whereas the UK is?
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Diamond Dog » 01 Jan 2019, 10:58

WG Kaspar wrote:
Toby wrote:Precisely. The Eurozone is not in a position to be making overly bullish economic shows of strength.


Whereas the UK is?



Apparently so. :roll:
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Toby » 01 Jan 2019, 11:12

All I'm saying is that the notion of "sanctions" against the UK as suggested would not benefit anyone and would have a disastrous effect on the European economy. That is obvious - if you stop trade with one of your closest partners, then the economic impact on the population as a whole would be incredibly damaging.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby WG Kaspar » 01 Jan 2019, 11:15

I'm not sure I understand what sanctions by the EU means. Does anyone though doubt that it would make sitting on the same table to agree any future deal would be uncomfortable if payments are withheld?
And the idea that the French would change their tune because they 'absolutely' rely on the British market is about as laughable as the German car manufacturers lining up to push Merkel to make a quick deal so that they won't lose the British market. People don't seem to understand the value of the single market to trade.
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Diamond Dog » 01 Jan 2019, 11:15

Toby wrote:All I'm saying is that the notion of "sanctions" against the UK as suggested would not benefit anyone and would have a disastrous effect on the European economy. That is obvious - if you stop trade with one of your closest partners, then the economic impact on the population as a whole would be incredibly damaging.


A partner who has jumped ship and, if some people have their way, reneged on all deals made up to that point.

Can you imagine a scenario anywhere else on the planet where that would result in there being no reaction from the 'wounded' party?
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby andymacandy » 01 Jan 2019, 11:16

Toby wrote:Precisely. The Eurozone is not in a position to be making overly bullish economic shows of strength.

Except that its very existence is threatened if they dont.
They can almost afford to lose the UK, but they cant be seen to give us an easy ride in case others get the same idea.
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby andymacandy » 01 Jan 2019, 11:20

Toby wrote:All I'm saying is that the notion of "sanctions" against the UK as suggested would not benefit anyone and would have a disastrous effect on the European economy. That is obvious - if you stop trade with one of your closest partners, then the economic impact on the population as a whole would be incredibly damaging.

There are hundreds of ways that they could make our lives difficult if we go down that route.
It could hurt the European economy, but it would be a pyhrric victory, as ours would be decimated.
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Deebank » 01 Jan 2019, 11:45

caramba wrote:
Diamond Dog wrote:
caramba wrote:Haven't seen very much in the press about any EU plans in the event of the UK's refusing to pay them the notorious £39 billion should we crash out with no deal.

Anyone know if they've made any such provisions in the event of this happening?

If one of its three richest countries stop paying in, would imagine the EU is going to be every bit as fucked as the UK is in the short term. It'll be even more screwed if its wantaway members see the UK survive the initial impacts of Brexit and - unlikely as it looks right now - somehow start to do well.

Was surprised to touch bases with a couple of formerly staunch remainers who are now saying the UK should give the EU the middle finger as they've had it up to here with "Project Fear" scare stories and the EU's dismissive treatment of the UK.

What a mess Cameron has left us all to try and deal/live with.


Just because this Government Of Clowns hasn't prepared for it doesn't mean the EU hasn't. I'm sure there is a contingency. And the idea that the EU will be more adversely effected by a non payment than the UK is laughable. Can you imagine the sanctions that would be imposed immediately?



Let's hope the EU’s contingency planning for any possible UK default was carried out with more care and attention than its colossally inept assessment of Greece's national finances before the latter's admission.


That rather assumes that membership is only about financial benefit (mutual or otherwise), whereas it is evidently about much more.

Europe has always been willing to accept some ‘pain’ in order to expand.
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby yomptepi » 01 Jan 2019, 12:11

Deebank wrote:
Europe has always been willing to accept some ‘pain’ in order to expand.


My understanding is that rules were broken, and there was more than a whiff of corruption involved.
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Deebank » 01 Jan 2019, 12:16

yomptepi wrote:
Deebank wrote:
Europe has always been willing to accept some ‘pain’ in order to expand.


My understanding is that rules were broken, and there was more than a whiff of corruption involved.


Curruption in Southern Europe? Surely not! :o

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Robert » 01 Jan 2019, 12:34

caramba wrote:Haven't seen very much in the press about any EU plans in the event of the UK's refusing to pay them the notorious £39 billion should we crash out with no deal.

Anyone know if they've made any such provisions in the event of this happening?

If one of its three richest countries stop paying in, would imagine the EU is going to be every bit as fucked as the UK is in the short term. It'll be even more screwed if its wantaway members see the UK survive the initial impacts of Brexit and - unlikely as it looks right now - somehow start to do well.


Was surprised to touch bases with a couple of formerly staunch remainers who are now saying the UK should give the EU the middle finger as they've had it up to here with "Project Fear" scare stories and the EU's dismissive treatment of the UK.

What a mess Cameron has left us all to try and deal/live with.


The nett 8 billion the UK will stop tocontribute to the 127 billion budget has two years been accounted for by increases in contributions from other memberr states and reductions in a number of subsidies. That 8 b means not much in the bigger scheme of things

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby caramba » 01 Jan 2019, 13:09

Deebank wrote:
caramba wrote:
Diamond Dog wrote:
Just because this Government Of Clowns hasn't prepared for it doesn't mean the EU hasn't. I'm sure there is a contingency. And the idea that the EU will be more adversely effected by a non payment than the UK is laughable. Can you imagine the sanctions that would be imposed immediately?



Let's hope the EU’s contingency planning for any possible UK default was carried out with more care and attention than its colossally inept assessment of Greece's national finances before the latter's admission.


That rather assumes that membership is only about financial benefit (mutual or otherwise), whereas it is evidently about much more.

Europe has always been willing to accept some ‘pain’ in order to expand.


Sorry but I made no such assumption. I merely pointed out that the EU's ability to evaluate and plan is not nearly as strong as DD's post implied.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby yomptepi » 01 Jan 2019, 13:30

caramba wrote:
Sorry but I made no such assumption. I merely pointed out that the EU's ability to evaluate and plan is not nearly as strong as DD's post implied.



Not as strong. Christ!!

Half of the fucking EU is bankrupt. The only country benefiting is Germany. The rest are being bled dry. The Eu's ability to evaluate is only as strong as the needs of the German economy. It has always been this way.
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Robert » 03 Jan 2019, 12:36

Toby wrote:Precisely. The Eurozone is not in a position to be making overly bullish economic shows of strength.


Actually they are, 23 out of 28 memberstates perform better in terms of GDP growth then UK.


Rank Country GDP growth
rate (%) Year
1 Ireland 7.8 2017 est.
2 Romania 7.0 2017 est.
3 Malta 6.6 2017 est.
4 Slovenia 5.0 2017 est.
5 Estonia 4.9 2017 est.
6 Poland 4.6 2017 est.
7 Latvia 4.5 2017 est.
8 Czech Republic 4.3 2017 est.
9 Hungary 4.0 2017 est.
10 Cyprus 3.9 2017 est.
11 Lithuania 3.8 2017 est.
12 Bulgaria 3.6 2017 est.
13 Luxembourg 3.5 2017 est.
14 Slovakia 3.4 2017 est.
15 Spain 3.1 2017 est.
15 Netherlands 3.1 2017 est.
17 Finland 3.0 2017 est.
18 Croatia 2.8 2017 est.
19 Portugal 2.7 2017 est.
20 Germany 2.5 2017 est.
21 Sweden 2.4 2017 est.
22 Austria 2.3 2017 est.
23 Denmark 2.1 2017 est.
24 France 1.8 2017 est.
24 United Kingdom 1.8 2017 est.
25 Belgium 1.7 2017 est.
26 Italy 1.5 2017 est.
27 Greece 1.4 2017 est.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Penk! » 03 Jan 2019, 14:00

PENK wrote:So, that £100m of public money the Tories have just spent on irrelevant contingency ferry deals that even the ferry operators say won’t have any effect on customs?

Turns out £14m of it went to a company who have never run a ferry service and who do not even own any ferries. The company seem also to have no employees, assets or premises.

NOTHING DODGY HERE NO NOT AT ALL

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46714984


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/03/brexit-freight-ferry-firm-appears-all-geared-up-to-deliver-pizzas?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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