Brexit Countdown

in reality, all of this has been a total load of old bollocks
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Diamond Dog
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Diamond Dog » 28 Nov 2018, 17:32

Diamond Dog wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162

The government is due to publish its economic analysis on the long-term effects of Brexit on the UK.

Various scenarios will be set out by the Treasury - with the Daily Telegraph saying it will predict £150bn in lost output over 15 years under no deal, with Theresa May's plan costing £40bn.


So exactly how much shit would you like?


Actually the Governor Of The Bank Of England is at this precise moment giving a Press Conference about the recession we will suffer under May's Brexit or the financial crisis we will suffer with a no deal Brexit.... and a huge increase in the interest rate to try and bolster the £ which will, to paraphrase him, crash.

So exactly how much shit would you like?
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Robert » 28 Nov 2018, 19:33

The Prof wrote:
Robert wrote:the good old England that never existed.


It existed. It's just that most ordinary people that voted for a nostalgic return to the days of Empire would have been bottom of the heap servicing the super rich. Worse than they are today.



Yes, exactly.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby echolalia » 28 Nov 2018, 19:43

Robert wrote:
PENK wrote:Some good "economic certainty" from the PM today there.

Chancellor Philip Hammond: The UK economy will be worse off under any Brexit deal.
Government financial analysis: The UK economy will be worse off under any Brexit deal.
Opposition: The UK economy will be worse off under any Brexit deal.
Theresa May: The UK economy will grow under my Brexit deal!


Well, that UK economy would be worse off was clear from the get go.

The Brexit mob wanted their sovereignty back, not pay to the EU anymore and have the freedom to refuse foreigners and all would be back again to the good old England that never existed.

In light of today’s ominous predictions from the Bank of England it will be interesting to see whether May decides to concentrate on “the immigrant threat” in the run-up to the big vote. And if she does, how low she’s prepared to stoop. Here too she’s damned if she does and damned if she doesn’t – her rhetoric about the door being open to skilled immigrant workers is really just code for “rich welcome, poor fuck off”, while the reality is that if the UK closes its employment market to poor migrants (EU and non-EU) there's going to be a terrible shortage of unskilled labour - which the UK economy, being overwhelmingly service-based, is highly dependent on. What a fucking farce. Oh Cameron!

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Copehead » 28 Nov 2018, 19:57

Robert wrote:
Copehead wrote:
Toby wrote:
The Tories will never be destroyed. People become conservative as they get older. It is the party of the prosperous and as much as I think it is no longer a particularly conservative party in power, people will always hold conservative beliefs. This is why it is the most successful political party of all time.

New Labour failed to kill off the Tories even though they won 3 elections in a row so I'm struggling to see how Jeremy Corbyn will.


The idea that people become more Conservative with age in general is a complete fallacy, as is the idea become more right wing when they get richer etc there is little or no reliable research to bare this out

The age at which Tory voters outnumber Labour voters is somewhere in the 60s now and rising, there was a Conservative generation or two and that has nearly passed through the system now.

I never said Corbyn would kill off the Tories you basically agree with what I wrote


Not really a fallacy. Everyone knows this and has probably exprienced it himself. Don't worry about the handful of exceptions of which you probably consider yourself to be one.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog ... nservative


Wow an American blog post referencing studies into lack of curiosity in old age, impressive.

As I said what age is it that Tories outnumber Labour voters, somewhere in the 60s?

It a comforting myth for right wingers watching their demographic die off
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Robert » 28 Nov 2018, 21:16

Copehead wrote:
Robert wrote:
Copehead wrote:
The idea that people become more Conservative with age in general is a complete fallacy, as is the idea become more right wing when they get richer etc there is little or no reliable research to bare this out

The age at which Tory voters outnumber Labour voters is somewhere in the 60s now and rising, there was a Conservative generation or two and that has nearly passed through the system now.

I never said Corbyn would kill off the Tories you basically agree with what I wrote


Not really a fallacy. Everyone knows this and has probably exprienced it himself. Don't worry about the handful of exceptions of which you probably consider yourself to be one.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog ... nservative


Wow an American blog post referencing studies into lack of curiosity in old age, impressive.

As I said what age is it that Tories outnumber Labour voters, somewhere in the 60s?

It a comforting myth for right wingers watching their demographic die off


Yes, an american blog was the only thing I could find,not
That it just was on on top of a list of several pages arguing more or less the same. Check: age/conservatism/guardian.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Toby » 29 Nov 2018, 09:31

If conservative thought was not linked to age, why have the Conservatives been so successful?

I would hazard a guess that the creation of family and as one gets older, an awareness of how pragmatic politics has to be, how institutions work and perhaps most importantly, how human nature works, all correspond to a increase in conservatism. In fact, a recent study suggested that we increase by 0.38% in conservative thought each year as we get older.

Conservative thought crucially does not just correspond to economic theory. I would say that given people’s music choices on this board, virtually everyone is conservative to a certain degree. The act of identifying and wanting to conserve what is good is the very heart of conservatism.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby the masked man » 29 Nov 2018, 10:09

A point that is being missed here is that the Tory party, as proved by the Brexit Civil War, is no longer 'conservative'. They are radicals, wreckers, arsonists whose only wish is create chaos. The party of Harold Macmillan is dead.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Toby » 29 Nov 2018, 10:13

That has been obvious since the coalition of 2010.

But to suggest that they are the party of chaos is a bit silly. There are many proponents of the Tory party that have been arguing about sovereignty and the EU for decades, just as Bennite factions in the Labour Party have wanted to remove themselves from it too.

Even if Cameron had not called a referendum, these issues would have continued to boil and boil, and I suspect would have emerged into the open at some point. Perhaps if UKIP had gained more electoral and Parliamentary power as the lone voice for Eurosceptics then the issue might be even more volatile than it is now.

Our relationship with Europe and the European Union was always going to have to be talked about and discussed. An issue that is not really discussed here is the Eurozone Crisis of 2010, which we were lucky to avoid to a certain extent because we don’t have the Euro. If we were to remain in the EU, I suspect we would lose the pound.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Diamond Dog » 29 Nov 2018, 10:24

Toby wrote:If conservative thought was not linked to age, why have the Conservatives been so successful?

I would hazard a guess that the creation of family and as one gets older, an awareness of how pragmatic politics has to be, how institutions work and perhaps most importantly, how human nature works, all correspond to a increase in conservatism. In fact, a recent study suggested that we increase by 0.38% in conservative thought each year as we get older.

Conservative thought crucially does not just correspond to economic theory. I would say that given people’s music choices on this board, virtually everyone is conservative to a certain degree. The act of identifying and wanting to conserve what is good is the very heart of conservatism.


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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Goat Boy » 29 Nov 2018, 10:54

Toby wrote:If conservative thought was not linked to age, why have the Conservatives been so successful?

I would hazard a guess that the creation of family and as one gets older, an awareness of how pragmatic politics has to be, how institutions work and perhaps most importantly, how human nature works, all correspond to a increase in conservatism. In fact, a recent study suggested that we increase by 0.38% in conservative thought each year as we get older.

Conservative thought crucially does not just correspond to economic theory. I would say that given people’s music choices on this board, virtually everyone is conservative to a certain degree. The act of identifying and wanting to conserve what is good is the very heart of conservatism.


Aye. Conservatism is innate. It manifests itself in different ways but it’s part of what makes us human. It’s why we feel sad when a lovely old building is pulled down.

Life experience tempers more extreme positions. The understanding of the importance of pragmatism and compromise (the essence of reasonable politics really) and the rejection of dogmatic ideology that comes with slow burning maturity. The incremental insights into what makes people tick and the attendant increases in empathy. The dissolving of youthful, partisan loyalties forged in emotion and quixotic idealism and so on. As we get older we become more realistic and, I guess more cynical and careful too, more risk averse. Conservatism appeals to this basic journey. Sometimes the move towards conservatism of course – or at least a move away from far left ideology - is motivated by an acceptance of the critical flaws of the far left and the ultimate rejection of that position. Once you accept this truth conservatism ceases to be some kind of evil bogeyman and can be viewed as a necessary barrier to dangerous radicalism as well.
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Dor-Relip Hotels and Bathings » 29 Nov 2018, 11:05

Toby's talking about small 'c' conservatism, you seem to be talking about big 'C' Conservatism
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Dor-Relip Hotels and Bathings » 29 Nov 2018, 11:06

Left-wingers are more caring, more sensitive people anyway. That's what I always, always find.
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Toby » 29 Nov 2018, 11:08

Very well put. And in the observation about the critical flaws of leftist ideology, that’s really how I personally came to accept it. Both sides have very vital things to celebrate, but for me there were are too many problems with utopian thinking for me to side with the left.

A good maxim is - the left want to share the wealth, but the right create it in the first place. I don’t think any realistic political situation can do without either, which is why talk of the destruction of one side is very unhealthy. 18 years of Tory dominance led to New labour which then led to Corbyn.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Goat Boy » 29 Nov 2018, 11:10

The Bulfine Papers (1917) wrote:Toby's talking about small 'c' conservatism, you seem to be talking about big 'C' Conservatism


The Tories will never be destroyed. People become conservative as they get older. It is the party of the prosperous and as much as I think it is no longer a particularly conservative party in power, people will always hold conservative beliefs. This is why it is the most successful political party of all time.


I'm talking about why people sometimes move towards conservative parties, yes.
Griff wrote:The notion that Jeremy Corbyn, a lifelong vocal proponent of antisemitism, would stand in front of an antisemitic mural and commend it is utterly preposterous.


Copehead wrote:we have lost touch with anything normal

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Toby » 29 Nov 2018, 11:11

The Bulfine Papers (1917) wrote:Left-wingers are more caring, more sensitive people anyway. That's what I always, always find.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Dor-Relip Hotels and Bathings » 29 Nov 2018, 11:12

But there's 'conservative', meaning holding onto traditions, essentially, and 'Conservative' which is related in some ways but has its own bunch of characteristics.

Oh whatever
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Toby » 29 Nov 2018, 11:14

One of the finest exponents of conservative theory was Michael Oakeshott.

This article is excellent on him

https://www.firstthings.com/article/201 ... of-delight

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Dor-Relip Hotels and Bathings » 29 Nov 2018, 11:15

Toby wrote:
The Bulfine Papers (1917) wrote:Left-wingers are more caring, more sensitive people anyway. That's what I always, always find.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


Yeah, I thought I'd get that.

It might sound dopey but it's invariably the case. Tory voters are usually looking out for themselves and their families, and that's understandable. But they're less likely to care much about the poor, the unemployed, etc. I mean, you know this to be true, as simplistic as it sounds.
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Toby » 29 Nov 2018, 11:19

No I think it’s rubbish frankly. The left encourages people to extol their virtue without actually doing anything about it.

The notion that conservative voters are uncaring is just wrong.
Last edited by Toby on 29 Nov 2018, 11:23, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Toby » 29 Nov 2018, 11:22

Marxist dialectic encourages the creation of identities with moral hues. So if you are against immigration you are a racist and a bigot. If you find the employment of women in what are traditionally male roles to be problematic you are a misogynist. If you find the creation of a free health service to everyone to be problematic, you are a shit etc etc. You are typefying the issue.