Brexit Countdown

in reality, all of this has been a total load of old bollocks
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Toby
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Toby » 20 Nov 2018, 12:17

The Prof wrote:The miner's strike is still very real with a lot of people. and then there's the Poll Tax, that nearly started a civil war.

I think there's still a way to go to get to the levels of social breakdown we've had in my lifetime but that doesn't mean to say we won't get there or surpass it.


The Poll Tax didn’t come close to a Civil war, don’t be ridiculous.

It brought down Thatcher and provoked a riot in Trafalgar Square, but it was localised. There was no way it was going to come to armed insurrection.

There is no doubt that sides have been drawn by Brexit and identities have been created by it. If it led to an economic downturn of significant proportions and say, the middle class suffered the sort of catastrophic financial meltdown akin to hyperinflation in Weimar Germany with house repossessions for example, then I think we’d be in trouble.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Geezee » 20 Nov 2018, 12:23

Toby wrote:
Nuts wrote:I love reading Toby's posts, they never fail to raise a smile.
"The reality is that many people in this country are relatively recession proof."
I don't know what reality you're living in but can we all move there?


The SE of the UK is the richest part of Europe. Obviously not everyone is recession proof and I haven’t stated that, but the fact is that it is better for an economy that some people have some money to spend, rather than for no-one to have any at all. Over 2 million people in the UK have wealth estimated at over £1 million. Only Japan and the USA have more.


£1m barely gets you a parking space in London these days.
Either way that stat, if accurate, is meaningless - it's only really the % of the population that is relevant. And either way so much wealth is hidden in offshore accounts, debt, and/or in investments that are entirely subject to fluctuating share prices that it is inevitably a false barometer of the economy.
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Toby » 20 Nov 2018, 12:43

It is one index of many that go to calculate a country’s economic well being. It is not meaningless.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Robert » 20 Nov 2018, 13:13

Toby wrote:
The SE of the UK is the richest part of Europe. Obviously not everyone is recession proof and I haven’t stated that, but the fact is that it is better for an economy that some people have some money to spend, rather than for no-one to have any at all. Over 2 million people in the UK have wealth estimated at over £1 million. Only Japan and the USA have more.



Toby wrote:It is one index of many that go to calculate a country’s economic well being. It is not meaningless.


Totally meaningless as it only measures the wealth of some and those some include a lot of inhereted money so that you really can't read the overall economic well being of a nation by that.

Besides it is not even correct:

A survey released in June 2017 by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) found that around 821,000 households in the UK are millionaires. By the end of 2016 the total wealth of British millionaires had also bloomed – reaching £6.5 trillion, up from £6.1 trillion a year earlier.Aug 22, 2017


That's 1.5% of the population if we count households as 'people', Less than Macau, Hong Kong, Ireland(!) and probably a lot more countries that I can't be bothered to look up.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Toby » 27 Nov 2018, 11:49

The big issue is now that most MPs will probably reject the deal. However, if the deal was put to voters, I think they would take it. Remain voters would support the relative economic certainty over a potential no deal and, as I've said before, most leavers I suspect would accept that if free movement came to an end.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Diamond Dog » 27 Nov 2018, 11:56

Toby wrote:The big issue is now that most MPs will probably reject the deal. However, if the deal was put to voters, I think they would take it. Remain voters would support the relative economic certainty over a potential no deal and, as I've said before, most leavers I suspect would accept that if free movement came to an end.


It will be hugely ironic to have May now almost certainly seeking a second referendum to counteract her inevitable defeat in the Commons.
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby caramba » 27 Nov 2018, 12:15

Be interesting to see how the remainers (of which I am one) react in the event of a repeat leave vote, or the leavers react in the event stay votes carry the day.

The only thing that's certain is that we're in for years and years more uncertainty that probably won't be resolved within the lifetimes of many posters here.'

Thanks Mr. Cameron!

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby yomptepi » 27 Nov 2018, 15:51

Diamond Dog wrote:
Toby wrote:The big issue is now that most MPs will probably reject the deal. However, if the deal was put to voters, I think they would take it. Remain voters would support the relative economic certainty over a potential no deal and, as I've said before, most leavers I suspect would accept that if free movement came to an end.


It will be hugely ironic to have May now almost certainly seeking a second referendum to counteract her inevitable defeat in the Commons.


I was very suspicious of how easily the other 27 countries agreed to her bullshit deal. I suspect that she knows it is a crock, and she presented it to them with the caveat that it would be buried in parliament. She could then call a second referendum to either stay with the deal. or leave with no deal. A referendum the remainers could possibly win.

Well I can always hope...
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Copehead » 27 Nov 2018, 20:41

yomptepi wrote:
Diamond Dog wrote:
Toby wrote:The big issue is now that most MPs will probably reject the deal. However, if the deal was put to voters, I think they would take it. Remain voters would support the relative economic certainty over a potential no deal and, as I've said before, most leavers I suspect would accept that if free movement came to an end.


It will be hugely ironic to have May now almost certainly seeking a second referendum to counteract her inevitable defeat in the Commons.


I was very suspicious of how easily the other 27 countries agreed to her bullshit deal. I suspect that she knows it is a crock, and she presented it to them with the caveat that it would be buried in parliament. She could then call a second referendum to either stay with the deal. or leave with no deal. A referendum the remainers could possibly win.

Well I can always hope...


That is crediting may with far more wit and intelligence than she has ever shown in the past. This is the woman who thought someone had had their deportation stopped because they owned a cat.

I think the obvious answer is more likely to be correct; this is the best she could manage given the tools at her disposal; those being Davies, Johnson and Fox.

Read an interesting article on one of those dreadful lefty sites like skwawkbox or Canary that said that Labour insiders are saying that Corbyn isn't going to call for a second referendum because he thinks if it is going to have to happen, and he thinks it must, then make the Tories finally call for it as it will double fuck them up the arse for ever.

I am a bit ambivalent about "playing politics" with something like Brexit but I admire his absolute determination to make sure the Tories own every last fucking spec of shit flying off the brexit bogbrush. It looks like he may be a better politician than his enemies gave him credit for. If he destroys the Tories for a generation he'll be up there with Wilson and Attlee.
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Diamond Dog » 28 Nov 2018, 06:27

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162

The government is due to publish its economic analysis on the long-term effects of Brexit on the UK.

Various scenarios will be set out by the Treasury - with the Daily Telegraph saying it will predict £150bn in lost output over 15 years under no deal, with Theresa May's plan costing £40bn.


So exactly how much shit would you like?
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby caramba » 28 Nov 2018, 07:58

Copehead wrote:
If he destroys the Tories for a generation he'll be up there with Wilson and Attlee.



Really?

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Toby » 28 Nov 2018, 10:29

caramba wrote:
Copehead wrote:
If he destroys the Tories for a generation he'll be up there with Wilson and Attlee.



Really?


The Tories will never be destroyed. People become conservative as they get older. It is the party of the prosperous and as much as I think it is no longer a particularly conservative party in power, people will always hold conservative beliefs. This is why it is the most successful political party of all time.

New Labour failed to kill off the Tories even though they won 3 elections in a row so I'm struggling to see how Jeremy Corbyn will.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Copehead » 28 Nov 2018, 10:41

caramba wrote:
Copehead wrote:
If he destroys the Tories for a generation he'll be up there with Wilson and Attlee.



Really?


Why not? Anyone who ended this shitshow would be a hero
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Copehead » 28 Nov 2018, 10:44

Toby wrote:
caramba wrote:
Copehead wrote:
If he destroys the Tories for a generation he'll be up there with Wilson and Attlee.



Really?


The Tories will never be destroyed. People become conservative as they get older. It is the party of the prosperous and as much as I think it is no longer a particularly conservative party in power, people will always hold conservative beliefs. This is why it is the most successful political party of all time.

New Labour failed to kill off the Tories even though they won 3 elections in a row so I'm struggling to see how Jeremy Corbyn will.


The idea that people become more Conservative with age in general is a complete fallacy, as is the idea become more right wing when they get richer etc there is little or no reliable research to bare this out

The age at which Tory voters outnumber Labour voters is somewhere in the 60s now and rising, there was a Conservative generation or two and that has nearly passed through the system now.

I never said Corbyn would kill off the Tories you basically agree with what I wrote
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby PENK » 28 Nov 2018, 14:27

Toby wrote:The deal will get through I reckon. Not enough Brexiteers to force a coup and voters will take economic certainty over no deal.


Some good "economic certainty" from the PM today there.

Chancellor Philip Hammond: The UK economy will be worse off under any Brexit deal.
Government financial analysis: The UK economy will be worse off under any Brexit deal.
Opposition: The UK economy will be worse off under any Brexit deal.
Theresa May: The UK economy will grow under my Brexit deal!
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby The Prof » 28 Nov 2018, 14:44

I was reading some gossip that in order to get some MPs on her side she's offered a date for her resignation in return for a vote to approve this deal.
Sounds a bit drastic but these are strange times.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Jeemo » 28 Nov 2018, 15:14

PENK wrote:
Toby wrote:The deal will get through I reckon. Not enough Brexiteers to force a coup and voters will take economic certainty over no deal.


Some good "economic certainty" from the PM today there.

Chancellor Philip Hammond: The UK economy will be worse off under any Brexit deal.
Government financial analysis: The UK economy will be worse off under any Brexit deal.
Opposition: The UK economy will be worse off under any Brexit deal.
Theresa May: The UK economy will grow under my Brexit deal!


yes it will grow, grow much worse.
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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Robert » 28 Nov 2018, 16:07

PENK wrote:
Toby wrote:The deal will get through I reckon. Not enough Brexiteers to force a coup and voters will take economic certainty over no deal.


Some good "economic certainty" from the PM today there.

Chancellor Philip Hammond: The UK economy will be worse off under any Brexit deal.
Government financial analysis: The UK economy will be worse off under any Brexit deal.
Opposition: The UK economy will be worse off under any Brexit deal.
Theresa May: The UK economy will grow under my Brexit deal!


Well, that UK economy would be worse off was clear from the get go.

The Brexit mob wanted their sovereignty back, not pay to the EU anymore and have the freedom to refuse foreigners and all would be back again to the good old England that never existed.

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby Robert » 28 Nov 2018, 16:12

Copehead wrote:
Toby wrote:
caramba wrote:
Really?


The Tories will never be destroyed. People become conservative as they get older. It is the party of the prosperous and as much as I think it is no longer a particularly conservative party in power, people will always hold conservative beliefs. This is why it is the most successful political party of all time.

New Labour failed to kill off the Tories even though they won 3 elections in a row so I'm struggling to see how Jeremy Corbyn will.


The idea that people become more Conservative with age in general is a complete fallacy, as is the idea become more right wing when they get richer etc there is little or no reliable research to bare this out

The age at which Tory voters outnumber Labour voters is somewhere in the 60s now and rising, there was a Conservative generation or two and that has nearly passed through the system now.

I never said Corbyn would kill off the Tories you basically agree with what I wrote


Not really a fallacy. Everyone knows this and has probably exprienced it himself. Don't worry about the handful of exceptions of which you probably consider yourself to be one.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog ... nservative

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Re: Brexit Countdown

Postby The Prof » 28 Nov 2018, 16:30

Robert wrote:the good old England that never existed.


It existed. It's just that most ordinary people that voted for a nostalgic return to the days of Empire would have been bottom of the heap servicing the super rich. Worse than they are today.