Davey the Fat Boy wrote:Geezee wrote:Davey the Fat Boy wrote:I think this IS a beginning.
“Sandy Hook” is precisely what is powering this. Everyone now realizes that nothing will happen without a mass mobilization.
Get ready for the wave.
"Everyone" now realises this? Sandy Hook is over 5 years ago. Why didn't they realise this 5 years ago, when it actually happened, and after countless previous massacres? What's so different now? I'd love to share this optimism, but I have none of it and nor do I see evidence of anything happening. I see a much stronger likelihood that Trump himself might pull a rabbit out of the bag and strengthen gun control irrespective of any wave - it falls into his general narrative of being unpredictable, independent-minded etc. In fact, if a wave did happen it probably would just make him not do anything. Which is of course not to say that it shouldn't happen.
I think the biggest thing that separates this one from previous ones is the reactions from the kids who survived it.
They are going to carry a lot of weight with their peers - and their peers will constitute the next political center of gravity as the boomers fade.
I just feel like that's always been the case. We have a whole generation that has grown up with Bowling for Columbine, and I find it hard to imagine that those who were directly affected by that, and their peers, and the cultural impact that it had, is any less than what we are currently seeing. Add on top of that the fact that Sandy Hook happened as a culmination of all of this, and that there was a Democrat president, I see zero likelihood that this wave will be any different. The US has had all the chances it has needed to change this, and has never taken it. I think the only thing that can succeed is a wild card factor - someone like a Trump who might suddenly change his mind on a whim if he thinks he'll gain any advantage of it. I mean what more could you do to rub something in the faces of Democrats than being the Republican President who enacts the country's strongest gun legislation? And as the most anti-Republican Republican President ever, he is the most likely to do something like that. Obviously the signs are not there at all - his immediate reaction is less than pathetic, as usual - which is also why I'm pessimistic anything will happen, even if it is more likely than any movement having an impact. Trump has been able to tarnish military veterans and their families and pretty much any and every vulnerable group one could care to mention without any issues - I wouldn't put it past him to start denigrating the survivors. "Oh that young girl I saw talking on TV, she was so ugly, saying such ugly things, and at a time of such tragedy, we should never listen to that". In fact - why on earth wouldn't he? And of course - it would work.