Adult Ed...

in reality, all of this has been a total load of old bollocks
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Samoan
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby Samoan » 12 Sep 2017, 16:13

Still Baron wrote:My grasp of mathematics is so terrible, I never made it further than Algebra II, and I didn't know what the hell was going on for most of Algebra I (though I more or less got geometry). My mind truly could not do it. I think I could now, and when I'm back trying cases in another decade or so, I'll have to be able to cross examine "experts" giving testimony about all sorts of things. I need at least a basic understanding of statistics. We'll see if I do it. I better.

Statistics is really ok to learn and use - the use of a specialised calculator is allowed.

I didn't find maths easy at all at school (took me 4 attempts to pass the O level exam) but coming to a Stats course many years later, it all clicked. Maybe it was the change of environment, teacher and/or the passing of time.
Last edited by Samoan on 12 Sep 2017, 16:38, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby sloopjohnc » 12 Sep 2017, 16:24

Still Baron wrote:My grasp of mathematics is so terrible, I never made it further than Algebra II, and I didn't know what the hell was going on for most of Algebra I (though I more or less got geometry).


That was me too. Geometry clicked for - maybe the spatiality or formula logic of it. I did have to take a few logic classes in college and those were mainly formulaic too.

I only took as much math as I had to.

I made a deal with my dorm roommate. I'd do his writing if he did my computer programming homework.
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby sloopjohnc » 12 Sep 2017, 16:24

.
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby hippopotamus » 12 Sep 2017, 22:16

Still Baron wrote:My grasp of mathematics is so terrible, I never made it further than Algebra II, and I didn't know what the hell was going on for most of Algebra I (though I more or less got geometry). My mind truly could not do it. I think I could now, and when I'm back trying cases in another decade or so, I'll have to be able to cross examine "experts" giving testimony about all sorts of things. I need at least a basic understanding of statistics. We'll see if I do it. I better.



I am sometimes very bitter and grumpy about continuing education. Deep down i know it's a real privilege... but I have to sometimes curb my enthusiasm, because my curiosity gets the better of me and thats when I get an excessive amount of degrees no one needs, and forget that there's more to life.

In reality, I totally understand what you mean. I was awful at maths. I took a summer school class so that I could get to AP calculus (why?), in which I once got 1% on one of my papers. (Not my strong suit).
But luckily in my undergrad I did psychology with comes with a butt-load (mathematical term) of stats. I wish I had done stats at school. I wish everyone did stats at school. Why do we do algebra and trig and calculus etc. when statistics is pretty fundamental in this day and age? How else are we going to understand Scientific research the public pays for, or economic trends we vote on, or probability of risk when consenting to a procedure in hospital?

Of all the things to do as an extra curricular subject it, I think it would be one of the most worth while.
But the point is learning is hard when you're very busy doing normal life.
I do wish we'd all be a bit more prepared for real life when it came to it, and not always feeling like we're catching up (or maybe it's just me).
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby Still Baron » 13 Sep 2017, 02:56

Surplus higher education may be an ultimate modern luxury, given the financial and time costs. My lottery dream is to return to school to take undergraduate and graduate courses indefinitely. Oh well, if I'm lucky and motivated enough, I'll have to settle for statistics and Spanish, both of which are closer to being professional necessities than anything else.
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby Nick » 13 Sep 2017, 09:57

I'm currently waiting for the final results of the taught stage of the MA Terrorism & Security that I've been doing part time over the past couple of years.

If I've passed then I'll progress to the final stage, and will be able to do a dissertation, and hopefully graduate next year.

Studying at that level while working full time is hard.
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby kewl klive » 13 Sep 2017, 10:08

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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby Rayge » 13 Sep 2017, 10:26

A former friend, now acquaintance at best, didn't even do his A-levels until he was in his late twenties, largely because he was seduced by the Beat lifestyle in a South Devon seaside town, but one day he woke up and decided he didn't want to be a junkie bus conductor all his life, and went to evening classes to get qualified, then on to university (where I met him) to get a history degree, followed by an MA, a failed doctorate attempt and a quarter-century of teaching in a public school. Since his retirement, aged 60, he has finally got a doctorate and no less than three MAs in different disciplines.
I guess that education – or at least the academic lifestyle - can be addictive too. I certainly felt the pull of it for many years, and several of my former druggy fool friends continue to pile up the qualifications, apparently for their own sake.
I'm not remotely knocking them, or their choices, btw, just rambling in an inconsequential manner.
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby sloopjohnc » 13 Sep 2017, 16:43

Rayge wrote: largely because he was seduced by the Beat lifestyle in a South Devon seaside town


I've heard of Greenwich Village, North Beach in San Francisco or the Sunset Strip seducing young people in the sixties. But this sounds like succumbing to an aunt that smells of therapeutic sea salts and cigarette smoke who lives in a flat where you can hear the freeway traffic going by.
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby Rayge » 13 Sep 2017, 16:53

sloopjohnc wrote:
Rayge wrote: largely because he was seduced by the Beat lifestyle in a South Devon seaside town


I've heard of Greenwich Village, North Beach in San Francisco or the Sunset Strip seducing young people in the sixties. But this sounds like succumbing to an aunt that smells of therapeutic sea salts and cigarette smoke who lives in a flat where you can hear the freeway traffic going by.

:lol:
This was the 1950s - he was born during WWII. In seaside towns, seasonal work was available all summer, and you could live on the bum or on the dole through the winter, when accommodation was also cheap. Shakey ran away from his seaside home in the north-east to go On the Road at 15 or 16, and ended up in a seaside town in the south-west.
Even quite small and/or genteel resorts had their coteries of guitar-playing, poetry-writing, cheap-wine-drinking, pot- and/or smack-heads on National Assistance (Potheads on the NAB would have been a good band name) by the time I was old enough to notice in the 1960s.
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby sloopjohnc » 13 Sep 2017, 16:58

Rayge wrote:
sloopjohnc wrote:
Rayge wrote: largely because he was seduced by the Beat lifestyle in a South Devon seaside town


I've heard of Greenwich Village, North Beach in San Francisco or the Sunset Strip seducing young people in the sixties. But this sounds like succumbing to an aunt that smells of therapeutic sea salts and cigarette smoke who lives in a flat where you can hear the freeway traffic going by.

:lol:
This was the 1950s - he was born during WWII. In seaside towns, seasonal work was available all summer, and you could live on the bum or on the dole through the winter, when accommodation was also cheap. Shakey ran away from his seaside home in the north-east to go On the Road at 15 or 16, and ended up in a seaside town in the south-west.
Even quite small and/or genteel resorts had their coteries of guitar-playing, poetry-writing, cheap-wine-drinking, pot- and/or smack-heads on National Assistance (Potheads on the NAB would have been a good band name) by the time I was old enough to notice in the 1960s.


I'm sure it was more picturesque than my original impressions.
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby Belle Lettre » 13 Sep 2017, 22:19

How nice to be able to do courses and degrees as the fancy takes one! We had to go into permanent overdraft to pay for my daughter's MA ( she had a job but unsurprisingly couldn't afford the fees), and when she announced she wanted to switch to a PhD we swallowed hard and thought we might manage if she did it part-time, as we could not bear to deny her the opportunity . Thankfully, she obtained a scholarship, so we were off the hook and have not had to give up the quails' eggs.
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby sloopjohnc » 13 Sep 2017, 23:36

Belle Lettre wrote:How nice to be able to do courses and degrees as the fancy takes one! We had to go into permanent overdraft to pay for my daughter's MA ( she had a job but unsurprisingly couldn't afford the fees), and when she announced she wanted to switch to a PhD we swallowed hard and thought we might manage if she did it part-time, as we could not bear to deny her the opportunity . Thankfully, she obtained a scholarship, so we were off the hook and have not had to give up the quails' eggs.


Yeah, most of the people I've known have had to put their houses up on second mortgages to send their kids to college and grad school.

My brother's first, his son, just went to University of Colorado. You pay less for in state schools and my brother was hoping he'd stay in California. I told him, "Fuck that." I've told my kids they're both staying in state for college. No choice for either. Unless they want to pay for it.

When I got accepted to school, my dad's first question was, "Well, how are you going to pay for it? We can't afford it."

At that time, I could pay for tuitions, lodgings and books by working in the afternoon and all summer. I didn't eat much those four years.
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby Toby » 14 Sep 2017, 08:27

We've been saving since our son was born for his university education. Thank fuck for decent Grammar Schools where we are.

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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby sloopjohnc » 14 Sep 2017, 17:50

Toby wrote:We've been saving since our son was born for his university education. Thank fuck for decent Grammar Schools where we are.


I've only been able to save for the two kids' college since my dad died and left some money. I have around $50,000 each in 529 plans. So that's the first year and a half for both.
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby Copehead » 14 Sep 2017, 22:00

Toby wrote:We've been saving since our son was born for his university education. Thank fuck for decent Grammar Schools where we are.


What if he fails the 11+
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby Toby » 15 Sep 2017, 07:16

If he fails, he fails. The secondary moderns here are still good - just not at the high standards of the grammars.

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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby take5_d_shorterer » 24 Sep 2017, 19:49

Still Baron wrote:My grasp of mathematics is so terrible, I never made it further than Algebra II, and I didn't know what the hell was going on for most of Algebra I (though I more or less got geometry). My mind truly could not do it. I think I could now, and when I'm back trying cases in another decade or so, I'll have to be able to cross examine "experts" giving testimony about all sorts of things. I need at least a basic understanding of statistics. We'll see if I do it. I better.


I'll trade you for info about how the jury selection process works. My specific question, in fact, is this: what, if any, threshold can be used to invoke Batson vs. Kentucky?, E.g., how many jurors of a particular ethnicity can a prosecutor (or a defense attorney) dismiss before the opposing side can argue, either to the judge or possibly to threaten to argue before an appellate court, that ethnicity played a role in dismissing jurors? Is any such threshold a number or is it a percentage? For example, if 90 percent of the jurors prosecutor dismisses are white, does this meet a threshold to invoke Batson? How do the underlying demographics of the local area play into challenging jury selection?

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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby Still Baron » 24 Sep 2017, 20:12

take5_d_shorterer wrote:
Still Baron wrote:My grasp of mathematics is so terrible, I never made it further than Algebra II, and I didn't know what the hell was going on for most of Algebra I (though I more or less got geometry). My mind truly could not do it. I think I could now, and when I'm back trying cases in another decade or so, I'll have to be able to cross examine "experts" giving testimony about all sorts of things. I need at least a basic understanding of statistics. We'll see if I do it. I better.


I'll trade you for info about how the jury selection process works. My specific question, in fact, is this: what, if any, threshold can be used to invoke Batson vs. Kentucky?, E.g., how many jurors of a particular ethnicity can a prosecutor (or a defense attorney) dismiss before the opposing side can argue, either to the judge or possibly to threaten to argue before an appellate court, that ethnicity played a role in dismissing jurors? Is any such threshold a number or is it a percentage? For example, if 90 percent of the jurors prosecutor dismisses are white, does this meet a threshold to invoke Batson? How do the underlying demographics of the local area play into challenging jury selection?


Dismissal/strike of one minority jury panelist can give rise to a Batson challenge. However, it always helps if several panelists of the same race are struck when other comparable panelists are not.

U.S. Supreme Court wrote:Batson provides a three-step process for a trial court to use in adjudicating a claim that a peremptory challenge was based on race:

"`First, a defendant must make a prima facie showing that a peremptory challenge has been exercised on the basis of race[; s]econd, if that showing has been made, the prosecution must offer a race-neutral basis for striking the juror in question[; and t]hird, in light of the parties' submissions, the trial court must determine whether the defendant has shown purposeful discrimination.'"


Snyder v. Louisiana, 552 U.S. 472 (2008).
https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case ... s_sdt=4,60

A lawyer can usually come up with a facially race-neutral reason for striking someone (anything will do), so it's up to the other lawyer to make the case that it is a pretextual reason and that it is really driven by nefarious reasons. This is usually a pretty hard case to make. Which is why it helps when the party struck several people of the same race who answered questions similarly or were otherwise similar to people of a different race who weren't struck.

Where statistics really come into play is challenging a jurisdiction's method of calling panelists to jury duty and challenging the entire racial makeup of the jury panel (in comparison with the makeup of the jurisdiction as a whole). But that's a different issue.
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Re: Adult Ed...

Postby take5_d_shorterer » 24 Sep 2017, 21:51

Two comments.

1) The first is that this seems like an example of changing one problem into another. The crucial decision here may be in what order the jury candidates are interviewed.

If, for example, there was suspicion that the prosecutor wanted to exclude black jurors, it would make a big difference whether black jurors were interviewed after white jurors, before, or interleaved.

If they were interviewed after, then assuming they knew Batson v. Kentucky, they could respond in similar ways to the white jurors. In this case, it would be difficult to make the claim that their answers were the cause of their dismissal. (That doesn't mean that the prosecutor couldn't find other reasons such as job occupation to dismiss jurors, but they have no control over what jobs they had prior to being selected.) If the black jurors were all interviewed before the white jurors, then they would have no idea necessarily how the white jurors would answer questions. I'm assuming here that the jurors hear how other jurors answer questions, which may or may not be true. Speaking of that, do you know if jurors in big cases can hear how other jurors are answering questions.

The thing is that what one would expect is that black and white jurors would be interviewed in an order in which both were interleaved. If the jurors were chosen at random, it would be highly unlikely that one ethnicity would be chosen before another. You can estimate the probability with a Monte Carlo simulation.

2)The second is it should be fairly easy to look at whether there is any unusual bias in who is selected initially to be in the potential pool of jurors. This is a fundamental problem in statistics.

Let's say that in a state, there are 1 million registered voters, 500,000 of whom are white and 500,000 are black.

You create a pool of, let's say, 50 possible jurors. Of these 32 are white and 28 are black.

How likely is it that a random selection of voters would result in having at least 32 white candidates? (You could also ask the question, what is the probability that there would be at least 32 white candidates or at least 32 black candidates.)

Using the tool that the normal curve does a pretty good job of approximating the binomial distribution, you look at the expected number of white candidates, which is 50 times (the probability that jury candidate is white, i.e, 0.5). That's 25.

The standard deviation is square root of (n*p*(1-p)) where n=50 for 50 people, p = 0.5. That's about 3.53.

The actual number of white candidates is 32, which is 2 standard deviations away from the expected number of white candidates, which is 25.

7 is approximately 2 times 3.53.

The probability that you would have at least 32 white candidates is not that much, about 2.5 percent.

You could also run a Monte Carlo simulation to get an estimate. Because of computing speed, you could easily run millions of simulations and come up with a pretty good estimate in a few seconds.