President Donald J. Trump

in reality, all of this has been a total load of old bollocks
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Snarfyguy
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Snarfyguy » 14 Sep 2018, 18:02

A "pardon-proof" plea deal?

Here’s why this deal is pardon proof:

1. Mueller spent the hour and a half delay in arraignment doing … something. It’s possible Manafort even presented the key parts of testimony Mueller needs from him to the grand jury this morning.
2. The forfeiture in this plea is both criminal and civil, meaning DOJ will be able to get Manafort’s $46 million even with a pardon.
3. Some of the dismissed charges are financial ones that can be charged in various states.


https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/09/14/t ... don-proof/

I have no idea if this person is credible and some of the post is speculative, but at the very least the objection that the investigation has been too expensive, or a waste of money, is now off the table for good.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby LeBaron » 14 Sep 2018, 18:47

I follow emptywheel on twitter and they typically seem to know what they’re talking about.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby LeBaron » 15 Sep 2018, 02:22

LeBaron wrote:
Snarfyguy wrote:Would he just provide a sealed report to Congress and we’ll never know what it says? That seems pretty anti-climactic!


Yeah. I think that’s right.

And that it may be Rosenstein’s call whether it’s sealed or not.

Ultimately, it’ll get out.


Some answers in this very interesting piece . . .

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/14/us/p ... rgate.html
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Jimbo » 15 Sep 2018, 09:33

Trump Is Still No Closer To Impeachment. At What Point Do Russiagaters Lose Faith?

“Mueller isn’t going to find anything in 2017 that these vast, sprawling networks wouldn’t have found in 2016. He’s not going to find anything by ‘following the money’ that couldn’t be found infinitely more efficaciously via Orwellian espionage. The factions within the intelligence community that were working to sabotage the incoming administration last year would have leaked proof of collusion if they’d had it. They did not have it then, and they do not have it now. Mueller will continue finding evidence of corruption throughout his investigation, since corruption is to DC insiders as water is to fish, but he will not find evidence of collusion to win the 2016 election that will lead to Trump’s impeachment. It will not happen.”
~ Me, last year.



Russiagaters have been assuring me since the beginning of last year that collusion will be proven, that Trump is going to be impeached and removed from office any minute now and spend the rest of his life behind bars for attacking American democracy and helping a hostile state infiltrate the highest levels of the US government. We are fast approaching the halfway point of this president’s term, and we are not one iota closer to his being removed from office than we were on the day of his inauguration. The BOOMs never bear fruit. The flips never come. All we get is a lot of drama while dangerous escalations between two nuclear superpowers continue to steadily mount with full bipartisan support on Capitol Hill and the full consent of the public.

https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/trum ... 9a514438fb
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Davey the Fat Boy » 16 Sep 2018, 08:49

That certainly doesn’t describe what I’m seeing.

From over here it looks like the noose is tightening around Trump’s neck daily. I don’t know if collusion will be proved, but I’d be surprised if a long history of Russian money laundering weren’t.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Rayge » 17 Sep 2018, 17:42

Sorry to interrupt the debate, and I know this is not particularly up to date, but it made me cry with laughter in places: Gilbert and Sullivan were never this good

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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Hightea » 17 Sep 2018, 18:50

Jimbo wrote:
Trump Is Still No Closer To Impeachment. At What Point Do Russiagaters Lose Faith?

“Mueller isn’t going to find anything in 2017 that these vast, sprawling networks wouldn’t have found in 2016. He’s not going to find anything by ‘following the money’ that couldn’t be found infinitely more efficaciously via Orwellian espionage. The factions within the intelligence community that were working to sabotage the incoming administration last year would have leaked proof of collusion if they’d had it. They did not have it then, and they do not have it now. Mueller will continue finding evidence of corruption throughout his investigation, since corruption is to DC insiders as water is to fish, but he will not find evidence of collusion to win the 2016 election that will lead to Trump’s impeachment. It will not happen.”
~ Me, last year.



Russiagaters have been assuring me since the beginning of last year that collusion will be proven, that Trump is going to be impeached and removed from office any minute now and spend the rest of his life behind bars for attacking American democracy and helping a hostile state infiltrate the highest levels of the US government. We are fast approaching the halfway point of this president’s term, and we are not one iota closer to his being removed from office than we were on the day of his inauguration. The BOOMs never bear fruit. The flips never come. All we get is a lot of drama while dangerous escalations between two nuclear superpowers continue to steadily mount with full bipartisan support on Capitol Hill and the full consent of the public.

https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/trum ... 9a514438fb

I stated the day Trump was elected that he would not make it 4 years. I see nothing currently that will change my mind he will step down or be impeached within two years. Although I could see a scenario where he makes it thru the 4 years but is told he can't run for a second term.

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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Snarfyguy » 17 Sep 2018, 19:45

Hightea wrote: Although I could see a scenario where he makes it thru the 4 years but is told he can't run for a second term.

Who would tell him that?

Michael Moore has now predicted a two-term presidency for Trump. I wouldn't even mention it, but he's the only person (whom I'm aware of) who correctly called the election for Trump in 2016.

This business with Kavanaugh is weird. I thought his nomination was basically a done deal, but now the process has gone off the rails what with the sex crime accusation and the perjury. If he goes away and the next one's nomination gets stonewalled until after the midterms and the Dems take the senate, perhaps we'll escape the fate of having two generations' worth of a right-tilting SCOTUS - all which seems pretty unlikely.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby toomanyhatz » 17 Sep 2018, 20:06

I know a guy - an annoying "Bernie Bro" type as it happens - who also predicted it. I would chalk it up to world-weary cynicism - that's kind of his MO - but he's a market research leader and knows his demographics, and that was the basis on which he predicted it.

Not sure what he's saying now, but I'd be curious.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Sneelock » 17 Sep 2018, 20:11

Snarfyguy wrote:This business with Kavanaugh is weird. I thought his nomination was basically a done deal, but now the process has gone off the rails what with the sex crime accusation and the perjury


it really gets my goat how the perjury was not enough all by itself - it was like he had a little head cold. If it wasn't for this lady stepping up to the plate with her accusations - they'd be having a vote. I know a lot of people think charges from High School is grasping at straws and they might be right. Still, it's probably NOT going to be fast tracked and that's a good thing. Hopefully key Senators will continue to honk their horns about the hypocritical lack of cooperation in vetting him (compared to Obama's nominees and, indeed, anybody else in recent history who has been nominated for that job).

regardless of how this plays out, t seems a good time to demand a little more sunlight on the process.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Sneelock » 17 Sep 2018, 20:55

the Intercept has a story up this morning speculating that more opportunities for perjury charges might be in the pipeline. Unnamed sources claim to have contacted members of the commitee with a can of worms on that whole Kozinsky matter. they are charging that BK was aware of the many charges against Alex Kosinski and I'm pretty sure he testified otherwise.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby sloopjohnc » 17 Sep 2018, 21:26

Sneelock wrote:
Snarfyguy wrote:This business with Kavanaugh is weird. I thought his nomination was basically a done deal, but now the process has gone off the rails what with the sex crime accusation and the perjury


it really gets my goat how the perjury was not enough all by itself - it was like he had a little head cold. If it wasn't for this lady stepping up to the plate with her accusations - they'd be having a vote. I know a lot of people think charges from High School is grasping at straws and they might be right. Still, it's probably NOT going to be fast tracked and that's a good thing. Hopefully key Senators will continue to honk their horns about the hypocritical lack of cooperation in vetting him (compared to Obama's nominees and, indeed, anybody else in recent history who has been nominated for that job).

regardless of how this plays out, t seems a good time to demand a little more sunlight on the process.


Twitter is aflame. I think even Republicans legislators are starting to become aware of the #metoo movement with midterms coming up. On my twitter feed, it's all Kavanaugh and Urban Meyer, who just did a big interview on his situation.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby sloopjohnc » 17 Sep 2018, 21:48

I saw that Mueller just set the date for Flynn's sentencing.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Davey the Fat Boy » 18 Sep 2018, 13:50

Sneelock wrote:the Intercept has a story up this morning speculating that more opportunities for perjury charges might be in the pipeline. Unnamed sources claim to have contacted members of the commitee with a can of worms on that whole Kozinsky matter. they are charging that BK was aware of the many charges against Alex Kosinski and I'm pretty sure he testified otherwise.


You have to wonder if they are considering withdrawing his nomination and replacing him with someone easier to confirm. They seem pretty desperate to lock that seat in before the midterms.

That said, maybe they’d be better off politically to have the seat still open in November. You have to think it would help Republican turn out to essentially have a Supreme Court seat on the ballot.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Jimbo » 18 Sep 2018, 15:13

Davey the Fat Boy wrote:
maybe they’d be better off politically to have the seat still open in November. You have to think it would help Republican turn out to essentially have a Supreme Court seat on the ballot.


Shhh.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Snarfyguy » 18 Sep 2018, 15:39

Kav wants "to refute this false allegation, from 36 years ago, and defend [his] integrity.”

It seems to me he has to choose one of these defenses because the two of them mutually undermine each other. Is the allegation old or false? Old AND false doesn't make any sense. If it's false it doesn't matter how old it is.

Am I missing something?
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Count Machuki » 18 Sep 2018, 16:23

Davey the Fat Boy wrote:You have to wonder if they are considering withdrawing his nomination and replacing him with someone easier to confirm.


There's this guy Merrick Garland who might be available...

I think the Pubs are desperate to get this Kavanaugh guy through so they don't look "weak" before midterms. Lifetime supreme court appointments are about the only thing the base can latch onto.

They'll make a show of "listening," ignore everything the lady has to say, and confirm him anyway.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby LeBaron » 18 Sep 2018, 16:50

I don’t think they can get anyone else through by Election Day. Also, they don’t want to cave until they absolutely must.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Count Machuki » 18 Sep 2018, 17:47

Stormy Daniels compares Donald Trump’s penis to Toad from Mario Kart

Really just loving where we're at as a society these days.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Snarfyguy » 18 Sep 2018, 23:48

Kav's character witness, Mark Judge, appears to now be declining to testify at the hearing, citing "incidents" (which I thought he previously said didn't occur).

My prediction: Kavanaugh will not be nominated. Shit is just getting too crazy.
Jimbo wrote:Look, all I know is pretty much what I get from Robert Parry over at Consortium News.