How will you vote on AV

[Deebank]

For all his nauseous triumphalism I wonder if Cameron has made a massive miscalculation.

AV was overwhelmingly shot down (70-30 against), he needn't have gotten involved - kow-towing to his rabid right wingers. He needn't have shafted the Lib Dems, he needn't have done anything at all and they No campaign would still have walked it. Instead he jumped in with two feet at the heart of a horribly personal and corrossive campaign playing the man not the ball - and crucially doing so in a highly dishonest way.

He lost his nerve and now he will pay the price one way or another. He only rules because the Lib Dems say he can and he has stabbed them in the back and trampled all over their corpse when he didn't need to.

So, for all the papers saying how well he's played it, I think he's done himself no favours - sure, he's impressed those on the right of his party, but so what, they were never going anywhere else anyway!

[Thesiger]

For all his nauseous triumphalism I wonder if Cameron has made a massive miscalculation.

No, he didn't. He correctly judged that the public mood would comprehensively reject AV (unlike many people here) and he lent his name to a cross party 'No' campaign in a relatively unobtrusive way. He has undoubtedly come out of it stronger.

I must assume he was on another planet when he indulged in this supposed 'nauseous triumphalism'. Non-residents of Planet Guardian will have failed to notice.

[Deebank]

For all his nauseous triumphalism I wonder if Cameron has made a massive miscalculation.

No, he didn't. He correctly judged that the public mood would comprehensively reject AV.

Which begs the question - having agreed with Clegg to keep a low profile on the No campaign - why he felt the need (under pressure from his back benches early on in the campaign when they, and presumably he, felt it may not be in the bag) to renege on the deal and at least tacitly support a personal onslaught against his own deputy? Which in the main chriticised him for the things the tories insisted he do.

It was totally unnecessary, surely even you can see that!

[Owen]

For all his nauseous triumphalism I wonder if Cameron has made a massive miscalculation.

AV was overwhelmingly shot down (70-30 against), he needn't have gotten involved - kow-towing to his rabid right wingers. He needn't have shafted the Lib Dems, he needn't have done anything at all and they No campaign would still have walked it.

There was a Mori pollster on the radio yesterday saying that a Yes win was still the most likely outcome in mid March. It's only in recent weeks that the support has totally collapsed. The pollster put that down to a mjaority of people actually still wanting change to the system but not actually liking the AV system when they examined it.

But it also coincides with the conservative push from Cameron and co (and I would guess to a lot of 'don't knows' revealling themselves to be 'no's' )

I must assume he was on another planet when he indulged in this supposed 'nauseous triumphalism'. Non-residents of Planet Guardian will have failed to notice.

I guess that Ashdown, Cable and co probably are residents of Planet Guardian. But I still dont see why actively pissing them off is a good (and neccesary) thing for Cameron

[Deebank]

I've heard a couple of (admittedly wise after the event) LDs saying they knew they needed a 20 point opinion poll lead, at least, coming into the campaign to stand a chance and they never had anything like that.

like i said above, turning the campaign nasty and personal was foolish and as it turned out, completely unnecessary.
Cameron's pathetic 'nothing to do with me guv' stance didn't fool anyone, coupled as it was with a soapy refusal to condemn the personal attacks, it just added insult to injury. The No campaign was 99% funded by the tory party with even leaflets from Labour No campaigners carrying the (presumably obligatory) small print: "funded by the Conservative Party".

If the Lib Dems had any balls they'd be reminding Dave that he is only in No10 on their say so, and that that could easily change in the light of his reneging on the AV deal.

I do wonder though if a now emboldened Cameron might not jump at the chance to ditch the LDs and call an election. I wouldn't put it past him - 10 odd points adrift or not, I think he thinks he's more than a match for Ed Milliband.

I suspect we'll see business as usual though

[copehead]

[
The only culpability Labour had was in not regulating the banks who bought this worthless crap hard enough so they had to split their gambling operations from the parts where our pensions and savings reside.

.

Well that's alright then, isn't it?. The only thing they did was let lose a gang of villains on our national wealth, and vanished it all away. Entirely forgivable. let's give them another chance, once the Conservatives have rebuilt the economy, as they always always do once Labour have destroyed it.

Trying to pretend that this was a problem specific to the UK Labour Party and not a general problem of cowardice and stupidity with the ruling classes of nearly every Western country just makes you look tribal and stupid.

You'd have to be pretty dumb to buy that line

[yomptepi]

[Trying to pretend that this was a problem specific to the UK Labour Party and not a general problem of cowardice and stupidity with the ruling classes of nearly every Western country just makes you look tribal and stupid.

You'd have to be pretty dumb to buy that line

You'd have to be equally dumb to buy the line that was nothing at all to do with Browns incompetant management of the banking sector. Of course the truth is somewhere in between, but we have to take these opposing views in order to get to that truth. To absolve Brown Balls and milliband of their gross incompetancy is just blind ignorance.

[Seymore Porn]

[Trying to pretend that this was a problem specific to the UK Labour Party and not a general problem of cowardice and stupidity with the ruling classes of nearly every Western country just makes you look tribal and stupid.

You'd have to be pretty dumb to buy that line

You'd have to be equally dumb to buy the line that was nothing at all to do with Browns incompetant management of the banking sector. Of course the truth is somewhere in between, but we have to take these opposing views in order to get to that truth. To absolve Brown Balls and milliband of their gross incompetancy is just blind ignorance.

I've heard of burying new on days of national elation/mourning. Now you kick the bar up by giving us this shite on Carol's birthday

[Belle Lettre]

I haven't missed it! But it's only the same old shit after all..

[The Prof]

He talks shit on everybody's birthday.

Cos it's somebody's birthday every day.

[The Modernist]

I do rather think the thought that Cameron has damaged himself to be wishful thinking. The one who has come out really bad is Clegg who is losing more credibility by the day. Having sold his soul to the Conservatives for nothing, I don't know where he now goes.

[copehead]

[Trying to pretend that this was a problem specific to the UK Labour Party and not a general problem of cowardice and stupidity with the ruling classes of nearly every Western country just makes you look tribal and stupid.

You'd have to be pretty dumb to buy that line

You'd have to be equally dumb to buy the line that was nothing at all to do with Browns incompetant management of the banking sector.

I didn't say that, I said part of the blame was his but that blame isn't specific to him or the Labour Party, other governments were also too stupid or cowardly to regulate casino banking properly as well and the Conservatives were actively campaigning to reduce regulation.

Those being the facts your one eyed persuit of Brown to hook the blame onto looks hopelessly partisan and therefore without any merit.

It was a failure of the political class as a whole, not a fairlure of Brown individually. That does not mean he is without blame, he must shoulder the responsibility and, I believe, he has. Hopefully we will get further apologies in his magnum opus on the banking collapse.

Not that I will read it.

Of course the truth is somewhere in between, but we have to take these opposing views in order to get to that truth. To absolve Brown Balls and milliband of their gross incompetancy is just blind ignorance.

But who has done that? I don't think even they have done that. Milliband E. spent most of the leadership campaign last year apologising, it seemed to be his USP as a candidate - I am the apologetic one who says we have to face up to our responsibilities and raise our mea culpas to the heavens.

[Footy]

your one eyed persuit of Brown

It would be unfair to pursue him with two eyes.

[copehead]

I do rather think the thought that Cameron has damaged himself to be wishful thinking. The one who has come out really bad is Clegg who is losing more credibility by the day. Having sold his soul to the Conservatives for nothing, I don't know where he now goes.

Cameron hasn't damaged himself in the eyes of his own party or Conservative voters.

I think what Deebank is saying is he has massively toxified his relationship with the LibDems in parliament, they will never forgive him for what he's done and they may be emboldened to make his life a lot harder in parliament because of that. He has also diminished himeself in the eyes of some people who vaciliate between voting Tory or LibDem and support electoral reform, a small but significant number of people I'd guess.

And, as Deebank said, he had absolutely no need to do that, he just couldn't help himself.
We will have to see what happens with NHS reform and things like that now because the only thing the LibDems can do now is to really make this government a liberal one or to capitulate completely and give up the ghost and split, I am sure there would be some who would cross the floor of the house into opposition as they believe that they have noting to lose now.
Another option would be formally dissolving the coalition but I don't think that would happen, the Conservatives aren't ready to ditch the LibDems until they have gerrymandered the constituency boundaries and they would probably lose to labour or have another hung parliament with Labour as the largest party right now.

[yomptepi]

By identifying himself so strongly with the No! campaign, Cameron has put himself firmly in control. The libdems are now in the very uncomfortable position of having to either play along nicely for the next four years, and hope that Dave and co can salvage a little something from Labours catastrophic tennancy, or withdraw their support, force an election ( which the tories will win) and be hounded into eigth place behind the monster raving loonies for ever. I suspect they will toe the line, don't you

[copehead]

By identifying himself so strongly with the No! campaign, Cameron has put himself firmly in control. The libdems are now in the very uncomfortable position of having to either play along nicely for the next four years, and hope that Dave and co can salvage a little something from Labours catastrophic tennancy, or withdraw their support, force an election ( which the tories will win) and be hounded into eigth place behind the monster raving loonies for ever. I suspect they will toe the line, don't you

Nope
It's starting already:

But he made it clear that the Lib Dems would not accept future policies which go beyond last year's agreement with their coalition partners, including proposals on NHS reform.

"We have a coalition agreement, which is a very good agreement and which is balanced and which we have to deliver, and that is the text around which we should operate in future while not losing sight of the central purpose of the coalition, which is to sort out this economic mess," he said.

"The health service reforms went some way beyond what was in the coalition agreement and that is going to be a major issue as we go forward."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011 ... ess-tories

Take that you smug twat says Cable.

Cameron may have just derailed his whole legislative program for a bit of granstanding over a vote he was never going to lose.

He really is rather lacking in smarts.

Your idea that the Tories would win an election is rather confounded by all the polls that show that Labour would most likely win outright or at least be the largest overall party now all the votes they lost to the LibDems have come home.

[yomptepi]

Even taking into account that Labour might lose 30 seats in Scotland to SNP. I don't think so. Did you see Vince Cable back peddling on the BBC this morning,.He had obviously had his wrists slapped. The Liberals are going nowhere. if they do, they are finished.

[andymacandy]

So now that the LibDems have lost the only real thing they wanted out of the coalition, what binds them to the Tory's now?
Obviously they still hold some power, but how much longer can it realistically hold together?

Or will Cameron now feel strong enough to go to the country for a quickfire General Election?

[copehead]

Even taking into account that Labour might lose 30 seats in Scotland to SNP. I don't think so. Did you see Vince Cable back peddling on the BBC this morning,.He had obviously had his wrists slapped. The Liberals are going nowhere. if they do, they are finished.

They are finished anyway, their only hope now that they have had their PR vote scuppered is to obviously temper the rabid right, I think they know that. This is the only time they will have that power, the Tories know they can't go to the country without gerrymandering the constituencies with a resurgent Labour Party, so the LibDems know they ahve power now but that it may not last.

Your idea that the Labour Party would lose 30 seats to teh SNP in a national election is just fantasy, the Scottish people know the difference between devolved and national elections as they showed last year.

We'll see who's right, either way it is good news for labour, if Clegg makes his MPs kowtow to the Tories I think many will cross the floor, which is good and if he starts a new policy of making the Tories stick to what they agreed last year that is also good for us.

As I said Cameron has all the political nous of a whelk.

[Thesiger]

So now that the LibDems have lost the only real thing they wanted out of the coalition, what binds them to the Tory's now?

The irresistible attraction of Power. The Holy Grail of all politicians of whatever hue is to be in government.