Sports betting (not just golf...)

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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby funky_nomad » 13 Apr 2015, 12:02

Diamond Dog wrote:
Diamond Dog wrote:Well my three against the field are :

J Spieth (generally around 10/1)
J Walker (20/1)
J Rose (40/1)

And my outsider :

V. Dubuisson (100/1).

Have to say , Rose looks like he's been 'laid out' for this - he's a big price for a recent Major winner who can putt.



Nice weekend's work, all in all..... 8-)

Lovely!

Casey sneaking into Top 6 covered my bets, but no profit for me.

Spieth was superb - any time he had a minor wobble (leave the driver in the locker room, Jordan!) he sorted it out immediately. The up & down at 18th on Saturday on the back of a double showed a lot of nerve, and he did the same kind of thing down the stretch. His 3-wood/long iron combo to find the 13th green was just as extraordinary as anything Phil or Bubba have shown over the last few years.

Rory's final round was a strange one - he seemed to have an ice-cold putter yet shot 66. If he'd played that way on Friday's front nine, we could've had a very different weekend!
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby Diamond Dog » 13 Apr 2015, 12:41

Spieth was absolutely fucking brilliant - his course and tournament management was exemplary. All the more incredible considering his age and (relative) inexperience.
He has been second and won one of his previous three tournaments - so, including the Masters, he has won around $2.4 million in a month.
Now that's nice work.
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby funky_nomad » 13 Apr 2015, 12:57

It was also nice to see that he seems to have rid himself of that petulant streak that showed itself last year - very composed.

A couple of very nice sporting exchanges between him and Rose as well, which is always nice to see given the pressure of the situation.
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby Diamond Dog » 13 Apr 2015, 14:03

He is a strange dichotomy - he plays the media game so well, seemingly disarmingly humble, yet (on course) is clearly hugely driven, wanting every shot to be perfect. But, yes, he has curbed the occasional excess of last season already - so he's a very quick learner too.

Kind words from Mickelson too - it's unusual to hear a top sportsman say "I played as well as I can but was outplayed by a better player" but that's pretty much what he said. No excuses. He truly loves this place nd he is still good enough to win another here, without question.

McIllroy must be kicking himself - three over after 27 holes, if he had only been par at that point, he would have been able to put real pressure on Spieth. He putted poorly though and his final round shouldn't mask that - he is very streaky and I think he needs to find a way to be more consistent on the green. Still, at his best, he is the best and I cannot (even at this stage) see beyond him for St Andrews.
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby Lord Rother » 13 Apr 2015, 17:40

Spieth and McIlroy are set for some great battles in the years ahead.

I can only see Spieth's emergence as a good thing for Rory - it'll push him on again.

Tiger Woods showed more than just glimpses that he too could be a threat for a few more years. But he still doesn't look like he's at peace with himself. Some of his swings yesterday looked out of control. I reckon if he reduced the intensity by 5% he'd enjoy it more, hit more fairways and get better results.

Says I. 8-)

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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby Lord Rother » 18 Apr 2015, 13:47

Ok, so seeing as I selected Many Clouds last week thought I may as well have a go in the Scottish National today.

Ayr 3.45 Raz De Maree 33/1

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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby funky_nomad » 17 Jun 2015, 12:12

The US Open at a course which looks to all intents and purposes like a "proper" links course? Could be fun!

On current form, Mickelson @ 16/1 looks like a cracking bet, given he has also proven he can adapt his game to links play.

The greens are big, so shot-making wins out over putting, so stick with the guys who are accurate and/or good scramblers:

Matsuyama & Garcia look good value @ 35/1, as does Horschel @ 55/1 (having said that, if Garcia is in with a shout down the stretch, I'll be using the Cash-Out button given his record for bottling it in Majors...);

I'm also sticking with Koepka, although I reckon 45/1 is a bit under-value. Snedeker at the same price is much more like it;

I also have a feeling Danny Willet will do well, so 33/1 for Top European looks a good e/w banker.
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby Diamond Dog » 17 Jun 2015, 19:42

How about Dustin Johnson (22/1), Brooks Koepka (50/1) and Byeong-Hun An (70/1) for the US Open from Chambers Bay, starting tomorrow? Maybe Bubba Watson too.
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby Diamond Dog » 20 Jun 2015, 14:39

A bizarre course...... part of it I love (the way holes completely change from day to day, and constantly ask the risk/reward question) yet I can't help thinking the extreme slopes and gradients are a bit 'Mickey Mouse'..... one thing is certain, it's taken all of them out of their comfort zone, so that's always a good thing, I would think.
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby funky_nomad » 20 Jun 2015, 20:59

Level par might just win this...
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby Tomahawk Kid » 21 Jun 2015, 07:54

My little E/W punt on Molinari at 100/1 is still clinging on by a thread. A good final round might see him in the places but I'm not holding my breath.

Funny thing, I can't say I'm enjoying this tournament that much. Hopefully lots of players in contention going down the back nine tonight will change that.

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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby funky_nomad » 22 Jun 2015, 09:09

Diamond Dog wrote:How about Dustin Johnson (22/1)

Ouch...
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby funky_nomad » 22 Jun 2015, 09:13

Diamond Dog wrote:A bizarre course...... part of it I love (the way holes completely change from day to day, and constantly ask the risk/reward question) yet I can't help thinking the extreme slopes and gradients are a bit 'Mickey Mouse'..... one thing is certain, it's taken all of them out of their comfort zone, so that's always a good thing, I would think.

As I don't have Sky in the house, I hadn't really seen much of the course close-up, but really liked the dramatic nature of how the holes looked (very reminscent of The Castle course at St Andrews, with dunes created rather than natural, and lots of kicks and slopes).

And then I saw Ian Poulter's pic of one of the greens:

Image

Christ, if my home course had greens and fringes like that, I'd expect to be playing off mats...
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby Diamond Dog » 22 Jun 2015, 10:04

funky_nomad wrote:
Diamond Dog wrote:How about Dustin Johnson (22/1)

Ouch...


He's done it to me before, so it wasn't a huge surprise.....but the manner has to be a major concern. To have a putt on the 18th from, what, 10 ft to win it and miss it. And then miss a three footer back to take it to a tie..... sorry, that's about character and, maybe, I shall just have to accept he really doesn't have it, when the chips are truly down (unlike the winner, who has it in spades). Sad, because he is a majestic sight on a gold course, but I fear he may be the next Monty/Garcia/Westwood/Donald etc........

funky_nomad wrote:
Diamond Dog wrote:A bizarre course...... part of it I love (the way holes completely change from day to day, and constantly ask the risk/reward question) yet I can't help thinking the extreme slopes and gradients are a bit 'Mickey Mouse'..... one thing is certain, it's taken all of them out of their comfort zone, so that's always a good thing, I would think.

As I don't have Sky in the house, I hadn't really seen much of the course close-up, but really liked the dramatic nature of how the holes looked (very reminscent of The Castle course at St Andrews, with dunes created rather than natural, and lots of kicks and slopes).

And then I saw Ian Poulter's pic of one of the greens:

Image

Christ, if my home course had greens and fringes like that, I'd expect to be playing off mats...


Some of the greens were inexcusable - you didn't need to be Percy Thrower to realise that those kinds of grasses aren't going to create a smooth surface.

As for the course - it was dramatic. And I really did enjoy the way that there were genuine risk/reward questions asked throughout. There is absolutely no doubt that it took them all out of their comfort zones and i really think that's a good thing. The way so much of the PGA tour is generic target golf, week after week, is tiresome. I do worry a little about some of the gradients and slopes (and the bizarre shots people were playing) but that made for a tremendously exciting tournament, where it really wasn't over until the last putt on Sunday. Just a few changes - and a major upgrade of the greens- and Chambers Bay should become a highly anticipated part of the Tour.
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby Diamond Dog » 22 Jun 2015, 11:18

A couple of other observations - Jordan Speith is a simply incredible competitor, but astonoishingly mature with that. He will absolutely relish St Andrews, where - in fact- they aren't going to be asked vastly different questions than they were this weekend. He will obviously be a prohibitive price but I would suggest he'd be an extremely likely winner.

Lastly Tiger..... I have to say, I think he'll retire (or should) at the end of the season (if not before). It must be humiliating for him to be taking 80 plus, seemingly on a weekly basis. He has genuinely lost the ability to acually know where the ball will end up, on any given shot. From the tee, fairway, rough and green. I can't believe he needs to carry on and I just cannot see what pleasure he is getting from it at all. It must be maddening because he quite possibly played the shot of the tournament - that outrageous bunker shot from a horribly plugged downhill lie, to a downhill green, which he somehow managed to stop dead within a foot or so of the hole. Quite simply brilliant. But to do that and then find your next tee shot goes 80 yards wide left, when you're trying to hit a fade, must be crushingly difficult to deal with. His time has gone and, whilst I never particularly enjoyed his demeanour, I take no pleasure in seeing him reduced to worse than a club hack, three or four times per round.
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby funky_nomad » 22 Jun 2015, 11:55

Diamond Dog wrote:Lastly Tiger..... I have to say, I think he'll retire (or should) at the end of the season (if not before). It must be humiliating for him to be taking 80 plus, seemingly on a weekly basis. He has genuinely lost the ability to acually know where the ball will end up, on any given shot. From the tee, fairway, rough and green. I can't believe he needs to carry on and I just cannot see what pleasure he is getting from it at all. It must be maddening because he quite possibly played the shot of the tournament - that outrageous bunker shot from a horribly plugged downhill lie, to a downhill green, which he somehow managed to stop dead within a foot or so of the hole. Quite simply brilliant. But to do that and then find your next tee shot goes 80 yards wide left, when you're trying to hit a fade, must be crushingly difficult to deal with. His time has gone and, whilst I never particularly enjoyed his demeanour, I take no pleasure in seeing him reduced to worse than a club hack, three or four times per round.

Yeah, I'd agree with most of that.

However.......

If he can keep his driver and 3-wood in the bag and work on his iron play, St Andrews might just bring back the "muscle memory" he needs - after all, it was the site of, for me, his greatest ball-striking tournament of the lot when he negotiated 4 rounds round the Old Dame without finding a bunker, and using iron off the tee pretty much everywhere.

Of course, those memories could just tip him over the edge if he doesn't get close to replicating it...
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby Diamond Dog » 22 Jun 2015, 16:20

The thing is....if he can get around using irons, these younger guys will get round using even shorter irons. He doesn't seem to have accepted that, just like he would out drive the old guys, these new guys are out driving him - and hitting it more accurately.

It may be his final chance to trigger some kind of latent response - but I fear the worst for him. Many is the great player that has been reduced to 80+ at St Andrews on a difficult day, and I can see him carding an 85 (again) and still not having a clue where it's going wrong. The scary thing for him is it's actually getting worse, week by week. Even Seve, at his inaccurate worst, wasn't as bad as Tiger at present. But they both had the same issue - a complete lack of control from the tee, where a ball is just as likely to get 70 yards right as 100 yards left. That must completely fuck with your mind, especially when you know only too well just how good you once were.

It's pitiful really. He needs to face up to it and really look deep. It's not pretty at the moment and it must be extremely tough for his playing partners, let alone his fans.
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby sloopjohnc » 22 Jun 2015, 16:38

The course was a joke - it was like playing pinball or pachinko out there.

After the US Open, the course people want, and should expect, people to want to come and play the course. I'm sure that's what happened for Pinehurst and Merion.

The exact opposite will happen with Chambers Bay.
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby sloopjohnc » 22 Jun 2015, 16:47

Diamond Dog wrote:Just a few changes - and a major upgrade of the greens- and Chambers Bay should become a highly anticipated part of the Tour.


Pete, usually I agree with you on sports, but I have to disagree with you on this one.

I was communicating with a couple golfing buddies - one runs a worldwide golf tour company and the other is like a 7 handicap. Both have played Chambers Bay. They both said it was interesting to play because it's so unique, but not appropriate for a US Open.

I learned how to play on a hilly 9-hole course, a short course. It taught you how to place your drives, if not launch 'em down the fairway, and taught you how to be strategic with your green approaches. But it was murder playing on a course like that.
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Re: Sports betting (not just golf...)

Postby Diamond Dog » 22 Jun 2015, 18:08

As I said, it gave them new challenges they don't face every week. Maybe not once a season. But, for that reason, I liked it. Well most of it. As I previously said, some of the gradients were crazy - having to play shots 40 yards wide of the flag to get it to roll close. But I remember some US Open/PGA course that were worse....remember Shinnecock Hills about 7 years ago? Where they had to water one of the short holes (after the play had started - an absolute no no in golf) because it was absolutely impossible to get the ball on the green, no matter what shot you played?

It was a bit Mickey Mouse, and that's what I meant by modifying some slopes....and drastically improving the greens.

But I'll tell you something - that's one of the most exciting final days I've seen for quite some time. Top players all having to find unconventional ways to overcome unfamiliar challenges. I like that. So much more interesting than "Whack the ball as far as you can, get your pitching wedge out (because it makes no difference if you're on the fairway, bunker or the rough, you'll be able to reach), pitch ten yards past the flag and spin back to a yard away....and then let's let the best putter to win".... that's how (especially) the US PGA Championship has become. It's no challenge...they can play those courses with their eyes shut (and probably half a bag of clubs).

I like that they had to think.
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